Assessing The Tradecraft Of Intelligence Analysis


Assessing The Tradecraft Of Intelligence Analysis
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Assessing The Tradecraft Of Intelligence Analysis


Assessing The Tradecraft Of Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Gregory F. Treverton
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2008

Assessing The Tradecraft Of Intelligence Analysis written by Gregory F. Treverton and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Political Science categories.


This report assesses the tradecraft of intelligence analysis across the main U.S. intelligence agencies, such as the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency, and recommends improvements. The report makes a number of recommendations for improving analysis for a world of threats very different from that of the Cold War. It focuses on the two essentials of analysis-first, people; second, the tools they have available. The December 2004 intelligence reform legislation set in motion initiatives that move in the right direction. The creation of a Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis will provide a real hub for developing tradecraft and tools and for framing critical tradeoffs. The establishment of a National Intelligence University will provide a focal point for training in analysis. The creation of a National Counterterrorism Center will shift intelligence analysis toward problems or issues, not agencies or sources. The building of a Long Term Analysis Unit at the National Intelligence Council can lead away from the prevailing dominance of current intelligence. And the formation of an Open Source Center can create a seed bed for making more creative use of open-source materials. These specific initiatives are promising but they are just the beginnings. For all the language about the importance of intelligence analysis, data-sharing, fusion, and the like, the national and Intelligence Community leadership today devalues intelligence analysis. A fundamental change is also needed in attitudes and existing organizational cultures.



Assessing The Tradecraft Of Intelligence Analysis


Assessing The Tradecraft Of Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Gregory F. Treverton
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2008-02-27

Assessing The Tradecraft Of Intelligence Analysis written by Gregory F. Treverton and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-02-27 with Political Science categories.


This report assesses intelligence analysis across the main U.S. intelligence agencies and makes a number of recommendations, some of which parallel initiatives that have begun in the wake of the December 2004 legislation, for instance, create a Deputy Director of National Intelligence as a focal point for analysis, establish a National Intelligence University, build a Long Term Analysis Unit at the National Intelligence Council, and form an Open Source Center for making more creative use of open-source materials.



Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals


Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals
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Author : Godfrey Garner
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2018-08-06

Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals written by Godfrey Garner and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-08-06 with Business & Economics categories.


There are a limited number of intelligence analysis books available on the market. Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals is an introductory, accessible text for college level undergraduate and graduate level courses. While the principles outlined in the book largely follow military intelligence terminology and practice, concepts are presented to correlate with intelligence gathering and analysis performed in law enforcement, homeland security, and corporate and business security roles. Most of the existing texts on intelligence gathering and analysis focus on specific types of intelligence such as ‘target centric’ intelligence, and many of these, detail information from a position of prior knowledge. In other words, they are most valuable to the consumer who has a working-level knowledge of the subject. The book is general enough in nature that a lay student—interested in pursuing a career in intelligence, Homeland Security, or other related areas of law enforcement—will benefit from it. No prior knowledge of intelligence analysis, functions, or operations is assumed. Chapters illustrate methods and techniques that, over the years, have consistently demonstrate results, superior to those achieved with other means. Chapters describe such analytical methods that are most widely used in the intelligence community and serve as recognized standards and benchmarks in the practice of intelligence analysis. All techniques have been selected for inclusion for their specific application to homeland security, criminal investigations, and intelligence operations. Uses numerous hands-on activities—that can easily be modified by instructors to be more or less challenging depending on the course level—to reinforce concepts As current and active members of the intelligence community, the authors draw on their decades of experience in intelligence to offer real-world examples to illustrate concepts All methodologies reflect the latest trends in the intelligence communities assessment, analysis, and reporting processes with all presented being open source, non-classified information As such, the non-sensitive information presented is appropriate—and methods applicable—for use for education and training overseas and internationally Military-style collection and analysis methods are the primary ones presented, but all are directly correlated intelligence to current concepts, functions and practices within Homeland Security and the law communities Covers the counterterrorism environment where joint operations and investigative efforts combine military, private sector, and law enforcement action and information sharing The book will be a welcome addition to the body of literature available and a widely used reference for professionals and students alike.



Masters Of Analytical Tradecraft


Masters Of Analytical Tradecraft
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Author : Department of Defense (Dod)
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019-08-17

Masters Of Analytical Tradecraft written by Department of Defense (Dod) and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-08-17 with categories.


This paper explores analysis in intelligence and evaluates a proposal to certify and convey analytical rigor as it relates to intelligence products. To accomplish this, an examination of intelligence failures is conducted to assess the application of analytical rigor across historic case studies. The historic failures demonstrate gaps in standardization and insufficiencies in analytical rigor. This paper proposes establishing unit-level certified Masters of Analytic Tradecraft (MAT) analysts to be trained and entrusted to evaluate and rate the standards and analytical rigor of intelligence products prior to publication. This certification model is based on research of the structure of professional civilian corporations. Implementing the MAT analyst certification will allow decision makers to judge the robustness of analysis so that they can meter their trust accordingly. This certification will hold the intelligence community accountable for their adherence to established analytical standards, ensure compliance is properly conveyed, and promote quality of analysis.1. Introduction * 2. Background * 3. Sufficiency of Analytical Rigor * 4. Proposal * 5. Research Methodology * 6. Analysis/Evaluation * 7. RecommendationsThis compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.Unfortunately, examples of high-consequence, high-profile intelligence fails have been common, revealing a consistent lack of analytical sufficiency and raising concerns about the condition of US intelligence. The 2003 assessment of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is one example of a catastrophic failure on the part of the intelligence community (IC). The report from the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD Commission report) summarized the assessment failures that informed the 2003 invasion of Iraq: "This failure was in large part the result of analytical shortcomings; intelligence analysts were too wedded to their assumptions about Saddam's intentions... We conclude that the Intelligence Community was dead wrong in almost all of its pre-war judgments about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction...[There existed] serious errors in analyzing... [and a] failure to make clear just how much of its analysis was based on assumptions, rather than good evidence."This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.



A Tradecraft Primer Structured Analytic Techniques For Improving Intelligence Analysis


A Tradecraft Primer Structured Analytic Techniques For Improving Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Center for the Study of Intelligence
language : en
Publisher: Lulu.com
Release Date : 2012-05-28

A Tradecraft Primer Structured Analytic Techniques For Improving Intelligence Analysis written by Center for the Study of Intelligence and has been published by Lulu.com this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-05-28 with categories.


This primer highlights structured analytic techniques-some widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. It is not a comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Rather, the primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments, identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short, incorporating regular use of techniques such as these can enable one to structure thinking for wrestling with difficult questions. Originally published by the CIA in color. Previously available online only as an e-file.



Intelligence Analysis And Assessment


Intelligence Analysis And Assessment
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Author : David Charters
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-11-05

Intelligence Analysis And Assessment written by David Charters and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-05 with History categories.


These essays cover: assessment systems now in place in Britain, the USA, Germany and Australia; the bureaucratic dynamics of analysis and assessment; the changing ground in intelligence; and the impact of new technologies and modes of communication on intelligence gathering and analysis.



Assessing Irregular Warfare


Assessing Irregular Warfare
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Author : Eric V. Larson
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2009-01-08

Assessing Irregular Warfare written by Eric V. Larson and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-01-08 with Political Science categories.


Provides an analytic framework and procedure for the intelligence analysis of irregular warfare (IW) environments that can serve as the basis for IW intelligence curriculum development efforts. Defines IW in terms of two stylized situations: population-centric (such as counterinsurgency) and counterterrorism. Provides a detailed review of IW-relevant defense policy and strategy documents and a list of relevant doctrinal publications.



A Tradecraft Primer


A Tradecraft Primer
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Author : U. S. Government
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009-03-02

A Tradecraft Primer written by U. S. Government and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-03-02 with categories.


Using the analytic techniques contained in this primer will assist analysts in dealing with the perennial problems of intelligence: the complexity of international developments, incomplete and ambiguous information, and the inherent limitations of the human mind. Understanding the intentions and capabilities of adversaries and other foreign actors is challenging, especially when either or both are concealed. Moreover, transnational threats today pose even greater complexity, in that they involve multiple actors-including nonstate entities-that can adapt and transform themselves faster than those who seek to monitor and contain them. Finally, globalization has increased the diversity of outcomes when complex, interactive systems such as financial flows, regional economies or the international system as a whole are in flux.The first hurdle for analysts is identifying the relevant and diagnostic information from the increasing volume of ambiguous and contradictory data that is acquired through open source and clandestine means. Analysts must also pierce the shroud of secrecy-and sometimes deception-that state and nonstate actors use to mislead. A systematic approach that considers a range of alternative explanations and outcomes offers one way to ensure that analysts do not dismiss potentially relevant hypotheses and supporting information resulting in missed opportunities to warn.Cognitive and perceptual biases in human perception and judgment are another important reason for analysts to consider alternatives. As Richards Heuer and others have argued, all individuals assimilate and evaluate information through the medium of "mental models" (sometimes also called "frames" or "mind-sets"). These are experience-based constructs of assumptions and expectations both about the world in general and more specific domains. These constructs strongly influence what information analysts will accept-that is, data that are in accordance with analysts' unconscious mental models are more likely to be perceived and remembered than information that is at odds with them. Mental models are critical to allowing individuals to process what otherwise would be an incomprehensible volume of information. Yet, they can cause analysts to overlook, reject, or forget important incoming or missing information that is not in accord with their assumptions and expectations. Seasoned analysts may be more susceptible to these mind-set problems as a result of their expertise and past success in using time-tested mental models. The key risks of mind-sets are that: analysts perceive what they expect to perceive; once formed, they are resistant to change; new information is assimilated, sometimes erroneously, into existing mental models; and conflicting information is often dismissed or ignored.



Intelligence Analysis


Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Robert M. Clark
language : en
Publisher: CQ Press
Release Date : 2016-05-04

Intelligence Analysis written by Robert M. Clark and has been published by CQ Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-05-04 with Political Science categories.


Robert M. Clark’s Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach demonstrates that a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis, while better meeting the needs of the customer. Thoroughly revised to reflect the changes in the constantly shifting landscape of intelligence, the Fifth Edition contains a new chapter that frames the nature of intelligence in 21st century conflict. The book also accounts for recent events such as the rise of ISIL and the conflict in Ukraine, and contains new examples throughout. Clark’s practical information and insider perspective create the perfect resource for students and practitioners alike.



Analyzing Intelligence


Analyzing Intelligence
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Author : Roger Z. George
language : en
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
Release Date : 2014-02-26

Analyzing Intelligence written by Roger Z. George and has been published by Georgetown University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-02-26 with Political Science categories.


Analyzing Intelligence, now in a revised and extensively updated second edition, assesses the state of the profession of intelligence analysis from the practitioners point of view. The contributors—most of whom have held senior positions in the US intelligence community—review the evolution of the field, the rise of new challenges, pitfalls in analysis, and the lessons from new training and techniques designed to deal with 21st century national security problems. This second edition updates this indispensable book with new chapters that highlight advances in applying more analytic rigor to analysis, along with expertise-building, training, and professional development. New chapters by practitioners broaden the original volume’s discussion of the analyst-policymaker relationship by addressing analytic support to the military customer as well as by demonstrating how structured analysis can benefit military commanders on the battlefield. Analyzing Intelligence is written for national security practitioners such as producers and users of intelligence, as well as for scholars and students seeking to understand the nature and role of intelligence analysis, its strengths and weaknesses, and steps that can improve it and lead it to a more recognizable profession. The most comprehensive and up-to-date volume on professional intelligence analysis as practiced in the US Government, Analyzing Intelligence is essential reading for practitioners and users of intelligence analysis, as well as for students and scholars in security studies and related fields.