Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart
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Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart
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Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2000-10-12
Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart written by Gerd Gigerenzer and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-10-12 with Psychology categories.
Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart invites readers to embark on a new journey into a land of rationality that differs from the familiar territory of cognitive science and economics. Traditional views of rationality tend to see decision makers as possessing superhuman powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and all of eternity in which to ponder choices. To understand decisions in the real world, we need a different, more psychologically plausible notion of rationality, and this book provides it. It is about fast and frugal heuristics--simple rules for making decisions when time is pressing and deep thought an unaffordable luxury. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices, classifications, and predictions by employing bounded rationality. But when and how can such fast and frugal heuristics work? Can judgments based simply on one good reason be as accurate as those based on many reasons? Could less knowledge even lead to systematically better predictions than more knowledge? Simple Heuristics explores these questions, developing computational models of heuristics and testing them through experiments and analyses. It shows how fast and frugal heuristics can produce adaptive decisions in situations as varied as choosing a mate, dividing resources among offspring, predicting high school drop out rates, and playing the stock market. As an interdisciplinary work that is both useful and engaging, this book will appeal to a wide audience. It is ideal for researchers in cognitive psychology, evolutionary psychology, and cognitive science, as well as in economics and artificial intelligence. It will also inspire anyone interested in simply making good decisions.
Bounded Rationality
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Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2002-07-26
Bounded Rationality written by Gerd Gigerenzer and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-07-26 with Business & Economics categories.
In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitive science, biology, and other fields largely ignore these real constraints and instead assume agents with perfect information and unlimited time. About forty years ago, Herbert Simon challenged this view with his notion of "bounded rationality." Today, bounded rationality has become a fashionable term used for disparate views of reasoning. This book promotes bounded rationality as the key to understanding how real people make decisions. Using the concept of an "adaptive toolbox," a repertoire of fast and frugal rules for decision making under uncertainty, it attempts to impose more order and coherence on the idea of bounded rationality. The contributors view bounded rationality neither as optimization under constraints nor as the study of people's reasoning fallacies. The strategies in the adaptive toolbox dispense with optimization and, for the most part, with calculations of probabilities and utilities. The book extends the concept of bounded rationality from cognitive tools to emotions; it analyzes social norms, imitation, and other cultural tools as rational strategies; and it shows how smart heuristics can exploit the structure of environments.
Decision Science And Technology
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Author : James Shanteau
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 1999-02-28
Decision Science And Technology written by James Shanteau and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-02-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Decision Science and Technology is a compilation of chapters written in honor of a remarkable man, Ward Edwards. Among Ward's many contributions are two significant accomplishments, either of which would have been enough for a very distinguished career. First, Ward is the founder of behavioral decision theory. This interdisciplinary discipline addresses the question of how people actually confront decisions, as opposed to the question of how they should make decisions. Second, Ward laid the groundwork for sound normative systems by noticing which tasks humans can do well and which tasks computers should perform. This volume, organized into five parts, reflects those accomplishments and more. The book is divided into four sections: `Behavioral Decision Theory' examines theoretical descriptions and empirical findings about human decision making. `Decision Analysis' examines topics in decision analysis.`Decision in Society' explores issues in societal decision making. The final section, `Historical Notes', provides some historical perspectives on the development of the decision theory. Within these sections, major, multi-disciplinary scholars in decision theory have written chapters exploring some very bold themes in the field, as an examination of the book's contents will show. The main reason for the health of the Decision Analysis field is its close links between theory and applications that have characterized it over the years. In this volume, the chapters by Barron and Barrett; Fishburn; Fryback; Keeney; Moreno, Pericchi, and Kadane; Howard; Phillips; Slovic and Gregory; Winkler; and, above all, von Winterfeldt focus on those links. Decision science originally developed out of concern with real decision problems; and applied work, such as is represented in this volume, will help the field to remain strong.
Risk Savvy
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Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2014-04-17
Risk Savvy written by Gerd Gigerenzer and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-17 with Psychology categories.
An eye-opening look at the ways we misjudge risk every day and a guide to making better decisions with our money, health, and personal lives In the age of Big Data we often believe that our predictions about the future are better than ever before. But as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer shows, the surprising truth is that in the real world, we often get better results by using simple rules and considering less information. In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer reveals that most of us, including doctors, lawyers, financial advisers, and elected officials, misunderstand statistics much more often than we think, leaving us not only misinformed, but vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there is hope. Anyone can learn to make better decisions for their health, finances, family, and business without needing to consult an expert or a super computer, and Gigerenzer shows us how. Risk Savvy is an insightful and easy-to-understand remedy to our collective information overload and an essential guide to making smart, confident decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Rationality For Mortals
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Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2010-04-16
Rationality For Mortals written by Gerd Gigerenzer and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-04-16 with Philosophy categories.
Gerd Gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. Seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. This work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. This volume (which follows on a previous collection, Adaptive Thinking, also published by OUP) collects his most recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate probability and risk and make decisions. It includes a newly writen, substantial introduction, and the articles have been revised and updated where appropriate. This volume should appeal, like the earlier volumes, to a broad mixture of cognitive psychologists, philosophers, economists, and others who study decision making.
Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1999
Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Decision making categories.
Fast and frugal heuristics - simple rules for making decisions with realistic mental resources - are presented here. Developing computational models of heuristics shows how fast and frugal heuristics can yield adaptive decisions.
Blackwell Handbook Of Judgment And Decision Making
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Author : Derek J. Koehler
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2008-04-15
Blackwell Handbook Of Judgment And Decision Making written by Derek J. Koehler and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-04-15 with Psychology categories.
The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law.
Straight Choices
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Author : Ben R. Newell
language : en
Publisher: Psychology Press
Release Date : 2015-06-12
Straight Choices written by Ben R. Newell and has been published by Psychology Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-06-12 with Psychology categories.
Should I have this medical treatment or that one? Is this computer a better buy than that one? Should I invest in shares or keep my money under the bed? We all face a perplexing array of decisions every day. Thoroughly revised and updated throughout, the new edition of Straight Choices provides an integrative account of the psychology of decision-making, and shows how psychological research can help us understand our uncertain world. Straight Choices emphasises the relationship between learning and decision-making, arguing that the best way to understand how and why decisions are made is in the context of the learning and knowledge acquisition which precedes them, and the feedback which follows. The mechanisms of learning and the structure of environments in which decisions are made are carefully examined to explore their impact on our choices. The authors then consider whether we are all constrained to fall prey to cognitive biases, or whether, with sufficient exposure, we can find optimal decision strategies and improve our decision making. Featuring three completely new chapters, this edition also contains student-friendly overviews and recommended readings in each chapter. It will be of interest to students and researchers in cognitive psychology, behavioral economics, and the decision sciences, as well as anyone interested in the nature of decision making.
Thinking Fast And Slow Cover Baru
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Author : Daniel Kahneman
language : id
Publisher: Gramedia Pustaka Utama
Release Date : 2020-05-29
Thinking Fast And Slow Cover Baru written by Daniel Kahneman and has been published by Gramedia Pustaka Utama this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-29 with Psychology categories.
Daniel Kahneman adalah salah satu pemikir paling penting abad ini. Gagasannya berdampak mendalam dan luas di berbagai bidangÑtermasuk ekonomi, pengobatan, dan politik. Dalam buku yang sangat dinanti-nantikan ini, Kahneman menjelaskan dua sistem yang mendorong cara kita berpikir. Sistem 1 bersifat cepat, intuitif, dan emosional; Sistem 2 lebih pelan, lebih bertujuan, dan lebih logis. Kahneman menunjukkan kemampuan luar biasaÑjuga kekurangan dan bias yang dimiliki olehÑberpikir cepat, serta mengungkapkan dampak kesan intuitif pada pikiran dan perilaku kita. Dengan mengetahui cara kedua sistem itu membentuk penilaian dan keputusan kita, kita bisa memahami, antara lain: ¥ Dampak dari hilangnya antusiasme dan terlalu besarnya kepercayaan pada strategi korporat ¥ Sulitnya memprediksi apa yang membuat kita bahagia kelak ¥ Tantangan untuk membuat kerangka yang jelas tentang risiko di tempat kerja serta rumah ¥ Dampak mendalam dari bias kognitif pada segala sesuatu, mulai dari bertransaksi di pasar bursa sampai merencanakan liburan berikutnya Kahneman mengungkapkan ke mana kita bisa dan tidak bisa memercayakan intuisi kita serta bagaimana kita bisa menarik manfaat dari berpikir lambat. Dia menawarkan pemahaman praktis dan mencerahkan tentang cara menentukan pilihan dalam bisnis serta kehidupan pribadiÑserta bagaimana kita bisa menggunakan teknik berbeda untuk mengatasi kesalahan yang kerap mendatangkan masalah bagi kita.
Ecological Rationality
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Author : Peter M. Todd
language : en
Publisher: OUP USA
Release Date : 2012-04-10
Ecological Rationality written by Peter M. Todd and has been published by OUP USA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-04-10 with Philosophy categories.
"More information is always better, and full information is best. More computation is always better, and optimization is best." More-is-better ideals such as these have long shaped our vision of rationality. Yet humans and other animals typically rely on simple heuristics to solve adaptive problems, focusing on one or a few important cues and ignoring the rest, and shortcutting computation rather than striving for as much as possible. In this book, we argue that in an uncertain world, more information and computation are not always better, and we ask when, and why, less can be more. The answers to these questions constitute the idea of ecological rationality: how we are able to achieve intelligence in the world by using simple heuristics matched to the environments we face, exploiting the structures inherent in our physical, biological, social, and cultural surroundings.