A Basis For Forecasting The Arctic Sea Ice Over A Few Months To Many Years
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A Basis For Forecasting The Arctic Sea Ice Over A Few Months To Many Years
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Author : H. H. Lamb
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1979
A Basis For Forecasting The Arctic Sea Ice Over A Few Months To Many Years written by H. H. Lamb and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1979 with categories.
An 80-year set of sea-ice data has been collected and digitized, and work is in progress to verify this data set. Principal component analysis has been used to identify 'typical' mean sea level (MSL) pressure anomaly patterns and their temporal variations, and these have been correlated with long series of sea ice indices for various regions. Time series analysis of these sea ice and MSL pressure data has revealed characteristic time scales of variation, as well as significant long-term trends. In addition, studies have been made of various mechanisms which may have been responsible for the fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation and sea ice. (Author).
Sea Ice In The Arctic
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Author : Ola M. Johannessen
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2019-11-12
Sea Ice In The Arctic written by Ola M. Johannessen and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-11-12 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book provides in-depth information about the sea ice in the Arctic at scales from paleoenvironmental variability to more contemporary changes during the past and present centuries. The book is based on several decades of research related to sea ice in the Arctic and its variability, sea ice process studies as well as implications of the sea ice variability on human activities. The chapters provide an extensive overview of the research results related to sea ice in the Arctic at paleo-scales to more resent scales of variations as well as projections for changes during the 21st century. The authors have pioneered the satellite remote sensing monitoring of sea ice and used other monitoring data in order to study, monitor and model sea ice and its processes.
Sea Ice Analysis And Forecasting
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Author : Tom Carrieres
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2017-10-05
Sea Ice Analysis And Forecasting written by Tom Carrieres and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-10-05 with Science categories.
A comprehensive overview of the science involved in automated prediction of sea ice, for sea ice analysts, researchers, and professionals.
Seasonal To Decadal Predictions Of Arctic Sea Ice
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2013-01-03
Seasonal To Decadal Predictions Of Arctic Sea Ice written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-03 with Science categories.
Recent well documented reductions in the thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice cover, which can be linked to the warming climate, are affecting the global climate system and are also affecting the global economic system as marine access to the Arctic region and natural resource development increase. Satellite data show that during each of the past six summers, sea ice cover has shrunk to its smallest in three decades. The composition of the ice is also changing, now containing a higher fraction of thin first-year ice instead of thicker multi-year ice. Understanding and projecting future sea ice conditions is important to a growing number of stakeholders, including local populations, natural resource industries, fishing communities, commercial shippers, marine tourism operators, national security organizations, regulatory agencies, and the scientific research community. However, gaps in understanding the interactions between Arctic sea ice, oceans, and the atmosphere, along with an increasing rate of change in the nature and quantity of sea ice, is hampering accurate predictions. Although modeling has steadily improved, projections by every major modeling group failed to predict the record breaking drop in summer sea ice extent in September 2012. Establishing sustained communication between the user, modeling, and observation communities could help reveal gaps in understanding, help balance the needs and expectations of different stakeholders, and ensure that resources are allocated to address the most pressing sea ice data needs. Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies explores these topics.
Workshop On Snow Cover And Sea Ice Data
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Author : World Data Center A for Glaciology
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1979
Workshop On Snow Cover And Sea Ice Data written by World Data Center A for Glaciology and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1979 with Sea ice categories.
Sea Ice Prediction Across Timescales And The Role Of Model Complexity
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Author : Lorenzo Zampieri
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Sea Ice Prediction Across Timescales And The Role Of Model Complexity written by Lorenzo Zampieri and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
In addition to observations and lab experiments, the scientific investigation of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice is conducted through the employment of geophysical models. These models describe in a numerical framework the physical behavior of sea ice and its interactions with the atmosphere, ocean, and polar biogeochemical systems. Sea-ice models find application in the quantification of the past, present, and future sea-ice evolution, which becomes particularly relevant in the context of a warming climate system that causes the reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover. Because of the sea-ice decline, the navigation in the Arctic ocean increased substantially in the recent past, a trend that is expected to continue in the next decades and that requires the formulation of reliable sea-ice predictions at various timescales. Sea-ice predictions can be delivered by modern forecast systems that feature dynamical sea-ice models. The simulation of sea ice is at the center of this thesis: A coupled climate model with a simple sea-ice component is used to quantify potential impacts of a geoengineering approach termed "Arctic Ice Management"; the skill of current operational subseasonal-to-seasonal sea-ice forecasts, based on global models with a varying degree of sea-ice model complexity, is evaluated; and, lastly, an unstructured-grid ocean model is equipped with state-of-the-art sea-ice thermodynamics to study the impact of sea-ice model complexity on model performance. In chapter 2, I examine the potential of a geoengineering strategy to restore the Arctic sea ice and to mitigate the warming of the Arctic and global climate throughout the 21st century. The results, obtained with a fully coupled climate model, indicate that it is theoretically possible to delay the melting of the Arctic sea ice by ~60 years, but that this does not reduce global warming. In chapters 3 and 4, I assess the skill of global operational ensemble prediction systems in forecasting the evolution of the Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice edge position at subseasonal timescales. I find that some systems produce skillful forecasts more than 1.5 months ahead, but I also find evidence of substantial model biases and issues concerning data assimilation and model formulation. Chapter 5 deals with the impact of sea-ice model complexity on model performance. I present a new formulation of the FESOM2 sea-ice/ocean model with a revised description of the sea-ice thermodynamics, including various parameterizations of physical processes at the subgrid-scale. The model formulation grants substantial modularity in terms of sea-ice physics and resolution. The new system is used for assessing the impact of the sea-ice model complexity on the FESOM2 performance in different atmosphere-forced setups with a specific parameter-tuning approach and a special focus on sea-ice related variables. The results evidence that a more sophisticated model formulation is beneficial for the model representation of the sea-ice concentration and snow thickness, while less relevant for sea-ice thickness and drift. I also highlight a dependence of the model performance on the atmospheric forcing product used as boundary conditions. In the final part of this thesis, I formulate recommendations for future developments in the field of sea-ice modeling, with particular emphasis on FESOM2 and, more generally, on the modeling infrastructure under development at the Alfred Wegener Institute.
Long Range Forecasting Of Arctic Sea Ice
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Author : Megan M. Stone
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Long Range Forecasting Of Arctic Sea Ice written by Megan M. Stone and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Climatology categories.
The operational production of skillful long-range forecasts of Arctic sea ice has the potential to be very useful when integrated into the planning of Arctic operations by the U.S. Navy and other organizations. We investigated the potential for predicting October sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Beaufort Sea at lead times of one to five months. We used SIC data for 1979-2007 to statistically and dynamically analyze atmospheric and oceanic processes associated with variations of SIC in the Beaufort Sea. We also conducted correlation analyses to identify climate system variables for use as predictors of SIC. We developed linear regression models for predicting SIC based on multiple predictors. We tested these models by generating hindcasts of October SIC for 1979-2007 based on several combinations of predictors. We found two key predictors of October SIC in the Beaufort Sea at leads of one to five months--antecedent SIC in the Beaufort Sea and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Caribbean Sea in the preceding May-September period. Both of these predictors showed a consistent and statistically significant relationship with October SIC at all lead times. Both are also dynamically reasonable predictors, given the role of antecedent ice conditions, and of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in influencing basin scale SSTs. Our hindcast verification metrics show that a linear regression model based on these two predictors produces skillful forecasts of SIC at leads of one to five months. Based on these results, we issued a forecast on 01 June 2010 for SIC in the Beaufort Sea in October 2010. We also identified and conducted mult-year, linear regression hindcasts using several other predictors (e.g., low level air temperature, low level winds, and upper ocean temperature) that proved useful at various lead times. Our results indicate a significant potential for improving long range forecasts in support of Arctic operations by the U.S. Navy and other organizations.
Arctic Sea Ice Decline
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Author : Eric T. DeWeaver
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2013-05-28
Arctic Sea Ice Decline written by Eric T. DeWeaver and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-05-28 with Science categories.
Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 180. This volume addresses the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, placing recent sea ice decline in the context of past observations, climate model simulations and projections, and simple models of the climate sensitivity of sea ice. Highlights of the work presented here include An appraisal of the role played by wind forcing in driving the decline; A reconstruction of Arctic sea ice conditions prior to human observations, based on proxy data from sediments; A modeling approach for assessing the impact of sea ice decline on polar bears, used as input to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act; Contrasting studies on the existence of a "tipping point," beyond which Arctic sea ice decline will become (or has already become) irreversible, including an examination of the role of the small ice cap instability in global warming simulations; A significant summertime atmospheric response to sea ice reduction in an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting a positive feedback and the potential for short-term climate prediction. The book will be of interest to researchers attempting to understand the recent behavior of Arctic sea ice, model projections of future sea ice loss, and the consequences of sea ice loss for the natural and human systems of the Arctic.
Technical Abstract Bulletin
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date :
Technical Abstract Bulletin written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with Science categories.
Glaciological Field Stations
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1979
Glaciological Field Stations written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1979 with Glaciology categories.