A Practical Guide To Economic Forecasting 2nd Edition
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A Practical Guide To Economic Forecasting 2nd Edition
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Author : Christopher Leslie Heaton
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005-07-01
A Practical Guide To Economic Forecasting 2nd Edition written by Christopher Leslie Heaton and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-07-01 with categories.
A Practical Guide To Economic Forecasting
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Author : Christopher L. Heaton
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004
A Practical Guide To Economic Forecasting written by Christopher L. Heaton and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Economic forecasting categories.
Business Forecasting
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Author : A. Reza Hoshmand
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2009-12-04
Business Forecasting written by A. Reza Hoshmand and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-12-04 with Business & Economics categories.
The information age has brought greater interconnection across the world, and transformed the global marketplace. To remain competitive, business firms look for ways of improving their ability to gauge business and economic conditions around the world. At the same time, advances in technology have revolutionized the way we process information and prepare business and economic forecasts. Secondary data searches, data collection, data entry and analysis, graphical visualization, and reporting can all be accomplished with the help of computers that provide access to information not previously available. Forecasters should therefore learn the techniques and models involved, as applied in this new era. Business Forecasting: A Practical Approach is intended as an applied text for students and practitioners of forecasting who have some background in economics and statistics. The presentation is conceptual in nature with emphasis on rationale, application, and interpretation of the most commonly used forecasting techniques. The goal of this book is to provide students and managers with an overview of a broad range of techniques and an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. It is based on the assumption that forecasting skills are best developed and retained by starting with simple models, followed by repeated exposure to real world examples. The book makes extensive use of international examples to amplify concepts.
Economic Forecasting
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Author : Graham Elliott
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2016-04-05
Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-05 with Business & Economics categories.
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Time Series Models For Business And Economic Forecasting
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Author : Philip Hans Franses
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2014-04-24
Time Series Models For Business And Economic Forecasting written by Philip Hans Franses and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-24 with Business & Economics categories.
With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.
Forecasting Principles And Practice
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Author : Rob J Hyndman
language : en
Publisher: OTexts
Release Date : 2018-05-08
Forecasting Principles And Practice written by Rob J Hyndman and has been published by OTexts this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Sales Forecasting
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Author : Mark Blessington
language : en
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Release Date : 2015-10-10
Sales Forecasting written by Mark Blessington and has been published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-10-10 with Sales forecasting categories.
Sales Forecasting is a practical guide for beginning and intermediate sales forecasters. The book does not use complex formulas. Instead, it is designed around the author's application of the learning curve to sales forecasting. Millions of sales forecasts are made by hundreds of thousands of people every year. Sales forecasts for every product and every sales territory in the world are made at least once a year, if not monthly. Then there are various aggregations of these forecasts, such as product to product line to division, and territory to district to region. Further, multiple functional areas across the company make sales forecasts. Sales, marketing, finance and manufacturing are all involved, at least on an annual basis, and often much more frequently. The sad truth is that few forecasters have any formal education or training on the subject. Part of this is because most forecasting books use numerous complex formulas, which are arcane, intimidating and off-putting. Another reason is that sales forecasters are encouraged to place too much trust in forecasting software by vendors who tend to make exaggerated and unsubstantiated claims about forecasting accuracy. Sales Forecasting breaks new ground. It re-invents the process of teaching the subject of sales forecasting. It is designed around the learning curve. The author's experience in day trading, along with decades of sales and marketing consulting, taught him the essential ingredients of sales forecasting. These are provided in Part 1 of the book. The first and most important skill is error measurement. The author makes a clear declaration about the best method and demonstrates its use throughout the book. The second skill is testing, and the author demonstrates how to divide historical sales data into in- and out-samples, calibrate models on the in-sample, and assess model accuracy by forecasting the out-sample. The third and fourth skills are avoiding linear extensions and mastering exponential smoothing. Part 1 is concluded with a description of the whole forecasting process and what is called "five-step forecasting." Part 2 moves into intermediate forecasting. Leading software packages are assessed through the author's research. Very little is published on forecasting software assessment, so this chapter plays an important role. Then ARIMA and ARIMAX are taught and demonstrated through multiple examples. These two methods, combined with exponential smoothing, form the foundation of intermediate forecasting. Perhaps the most exciting chapters in Part 2 involve aggregation. This is a fairly new field and it is growing rapidly. The author identifies some important gaps in the field, then fills them with his own research. Anyone involved in sales forecasting can benefit from these important findings. A chapter is dedicated to demonstrating the application of sound techniques to common forecasting challenges in marketing and sales departments: product planning and quota setting. It becomes quite clear that traditional methods generate far more error than the basic sales forecasting techniques taught in this book. The author also examines the topic of handicapping, or determining how much confidence to place on a forecast. He introduces the concept of "true confidence ranges" and also demonstrates the application of Bayesian probabilities to sales forecasting. To conclude the book, the author explores economic forecasting and closes with a discussion of common forecasting pitfalls to be avoided at all costs.
Practical Time Series Forecasting
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012-07-24
Practical Time Series Forecasting written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-07-24 with categories.
Practical Time Series Forecasting is a hands-on introduction to quantitative forecasting of time series. Quantitative forecasting is an important component of decision making in a wide range of areas and across many business functions including economic forecasting, workload projections, sales forecasts, and transportation demand. Forecasting is also widely used also outside of business, such as in demography and climatology. The book introduces readers to the most popular statistical models and data mining algorithms used in practice. It covers issues relating to different steps of the forecasting process, from goal definition through data collection, visualization, pre-processing, modeling, performance evaluation to implementation and communication. The second edition offers a large amount of new content and improved organization. Practical Time Series Forecasting is suitable for courses on forecasting at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It offers clear explanations, examples, end-of-chapter problems and a case. Methods are illustrated using XLMiner, an Excel add-on. However, any software that has time series forecasting capabilities can be used with the book.
Business And Economic Forecasting For The Information Age
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Author : A. Reza Hoshmand
language : en
Publisher: Praeger
Release Date : 2002-12-30
Business And Economic Forecasting For The Information Age written by A. Reza Hoshmand and has been published by Praeger this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-12-30 with Business & Economics categories.
The globalization of business and the ubiquity of available data in the information age are the driving forces behind the increasing importance of economic forecasting. In order to remain competitive, private and public organizations alike must employ forecasting techniques effectively. Hoshmand emphasizes the application and practical use of such techniques rather than their theoretical grounding. Decision makers and students who have a solid background in economics and statistics will find this book eminently useful. After discussing the role of forecasting in business decisions, the author moves on to smoothing techniques, regression models, and the advanced time series models of Box-Jenkins. Of particular help to practitioners is the concluding chapter on how to communicate forecasts to management. Forecasting professionals and researchers will benefit greatly from the information presented by Hoshmand, especially in their role as advisors to management. Few forecasters and even fewer managers will have had the luxury to remain fully informed of the new developments in this rapidly expanding field. Meanwhile, the importance of accurate forecasting to every realm of corporate strategy—production, inventory, purchasing, accounting, marketing, finance, and acquisitions decisions, to name a few—has increased exponentially due to the proliferation of data, the heating up of global competition, and the softening of many markets. No one today can afford to remain ignorant of the importance of economic forecasting for business decisions.
Practical Time Series Forecasting With R
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Author : Galit Shmueli
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015-07-17
Practical Time Series Forecasting With R written by Galit Shmueli and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-07-17 with Forecasting categories.
"Practical time series forecasting with R is a hands-on introduction to quantitative forecasting of time series. Quantitative forecasting is an important component of decision making in a wide range of areas and across many business functions including economic forecasting, workload projections, sales forecasts, and transportation demand ... The book introduces readers to the most popular statistical models and data mining algorithms used in practice. It covers issues relating to different steps of the forecasting process, form goal definion through data collection, visualization, pre-processing, modeling, performance evaluation to implementation and communication."--Back cover.