Analysis Of Bond Risk Premia
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A Factor Analysis Of Bond Risk Premia
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Author : Sydney C. Ludvigson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
A Factor Analysis Of Bond Risk Premia written by Sydney C. Ludvigson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Bonds categories.
This paper uses the factor augmented regression framework to analyze the relation between bond excess returns and the macro economy. Using a panel of 131 monthly macroeconomic time series for the sample 1964:1-2007:12, we estimate 8 static factors by the method of asymptotic principal components. We also use Gibb sampling to estimate dynamic factors from the 131 series reorganized into 8 blocks. Regardless of how the factors are estimated, macroeconomic factors are found to have statistically significant predictive power for excess bond returns. We show how a bias correction to the parameter estimates of factor augmented regressions can be obtained. This bias is numerically trivial in our application. The predictive power of real activity for excess bond returns is robust even after accounting for finite sample inference problems. Forecasts of excess bond returns (or bond risk premia) are countercyclical. This implies that investors are compensated for risks associated with recessions.
Analysis Of Bond Risk Premia
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Author : Lukas Wäger
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Analysis Of Bond Risk Premia written by Lukas Wäger and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.
The focus of this thesis is on bond return predictability and providing an empirical and economic understanding of bond risk premia. The thesis consists of an empirical analysis of time-varying bond risk premia along three major branches of the current term structure literature, namely yields-only, macro-finance and multi-currency term structure models. All these models belong to the well-known class of affine models introduced by Ang and Piazzesi (2003), whereas the latter two embed unspanned factors. Unspanned factors are state variables that have an effect on bond risk premia but do not span the cross-section of yields, as recently introduced by Duffee (2011), Joslin, Priebsch and Singleton (2011) and Boos (2011). The section concerning yields-only models contributes by providing evidence of three priced risk premia of bonds in the US market, extending the analysis of Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) and Boos (2011). The section concerning macrofinance models adds to the new branch of models with unspanned macro factors and extends existing research by analyzing the effects of unspanned macro factors on risk premia beyond the level risk premium and extending into a broader and longer data set of macroeconomic variables. The section concerning multi-currency models firstly introduces unspanned factors into international models by taking mutually unspanned latent yield curve factors of domestic and foreign countries as state variables. The information in foreign yield curves is found to be partly unspanned by the domestic yield curve and improves bond return predictability beyond local models.
Macro Factors In Bond Risk Premia
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Author : Sydney C. Ludvigson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
Macro Factors In Bond Risk Premia written by Sydney C. Ludvigson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Bonds categories.
Empirical evidence suggests that excess bond returns are forecastable by financial indicators such as forward spreads and yield spreads, a violation of the expectations hypothesis based on constant risk premia. But existing evidence does not tie the forecastable variation in excess bond returns to underlying macroeconomic fundamentals, as would be expected if the forecastability were attributable to time variation in risk premia. We use the methodology of dynamic factor analysis for large datasets to investigate possible empirical linkages between forecastable variation in excess bond returns and macroeconomic fundamentals. We find that several common factors estimated from a large dataset on U.S. economic activity have important forecasting power for future excess returns on U.S. government bonds. Following Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005), we also construct single predictor state variables by forming linear combinations of either five or six estimated common factors. The single state variables forecast excess bond returns at maturities from two to five years, and do so virtually as well as an unrestricted regression model that includes each common factor as a separate predictor variable. The linear combinations we form are driven by both "real" and "inflation" macro factors, in addition to financial factors, and contain important information about one year ahead excess bond returns that is not captured by forward spreads, yield spreads, or the principal components of the yield covariance matrix.
A Beta Based Framework For Lower Bond Risk Premia
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Author : Stefano Nobili
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
A Beta Based Framework For Lower Bond Risk Premia written by Stefano Nobili and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Government securities categories.
Bond Risk Analysis
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Author : Livingston G. Douglas
language : en
Publisher: Prentice Hall
Release Date : 1990
Bond Risk Analysis written by Livingston G. Douglas and has been published by Prentice Hall this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Business & Economics categories.
How Important Is Liquidity Risk For Sovereign Bond Risk Premia
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Author : Ron Alquist
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
How Important Is Liquidity Risk For Sovereign Bond Risk Premia written by Ron Alquist and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with categories.
A Quantitative Analysis Of Risk Premia In The Corporate Bond Market
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Author : Sara Cecchetti
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
A Quantitative Analysis Of Risk Premia In The Corporate Bond Market written by Sara Cecchetti and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
Revisiting The Predictability Of Bond Risk Premia
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Author : Daniel L. Thornton
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Revisiting The Predictability Of Bond Risk Premia written by Daniel L. Thornton and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
This paper investigates the source of predictability of bond risk premia by means of long-term forward interest rates. We show that the predictive ability of forward rates could be due to the high serial correlation and cross-correlation of bond prices. After a simple reparametrization of models used to predict spot rates or excess returns, we find that forward rates exhibit much less predictive power than previously recorded. Furthermore, our economic value analysis indicates that there are no economic gains to mean-variance investors who use the predictions of these models in a stylized dynamic asset allocation strategy.
The Equity Risk Premium
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Author : Bradford Cornell
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 1999-05-26
The Equity Risk Premium written by Bradford Cornell and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-05-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Das Thema Risikoprämie für Aktien (Equity Risk Premium) wird hier zum ersten Mal verständlich erklärt. Die Risikoprämie für Aktien stellt einen Renditeausgleich dar für das erhöhte Risiko, das ein Anleger bei der Investition in Aktien eingeht, im Vergleich zu einer Investition in risikofreie Staatsanleihen. Die Risikoprämie ist zwar von der Theorie her einfach, jedoch in der Praxis ein sehr komplexes Phänomen. Für Finanzentscheidungen ist es von größter Bedeutung, daß man das Prinzip der Risikoprämie versteht und es anwenden kann. Cornell erläutert das Thema Schritt für Schritt sehr anschaulich und ohne terminologischen Ballast. Zunächst wird die Risikoprämie im Zusammenhang mit der Geschichte des Aktienmarktes betrachtet. Der Haussemarkt der 90er dient dabei als Fallstudie. Cornell zeigt, welche Rückschlüsse man durch die Analyse der Risikoprämie im historischen Verlauf für den Aktienmarkt ziehen kann, z.B. ob Aktienkurse steigen oder fallen oder ob sich der Aktienmarkt verändert. Vorausschauende Schätzungen der Risikoprämie werden anhand verschiedener konkurrierender Modelle analysiert, wobei die Vorzüge der jeweiligen Methode mitbewertet werden. 'Equity Risk Premium' ist das erste Buch, das dieses wichtige Prinzip der Risiko-Nutzen-Analyse erschöpfend behandelt. Es vermittelt einen tiefen Einblick und deckt alle Grundlagen ab, damit Investoren fundierte Finanzentscheidungen treffen können. Ein absolutes Muß für institutionelle Anleger, Geldmanager und Finanzvorstände, die auf eine fundierte Marktanalyse zurückgreifen müssen. (06/99)
Yield Curve Analysis
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Author : Livingston G. Douglas
language : en
Publisher: Prentice Hall
Release Date : 1988
Yield Curve Analysis written by Livingston G. Douglas and has been published by Prentice Hall this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988 with Bonds categories.
With their increasing complexity, the fixed-income markets have made greater demands upon their participants. To be successful -- in this era of heightened volatility, especially -- requires a firm foundation in the precepts underlying the behavior of fixed-income investments. This book answers that need by presenting a comprehensive analysis of the two primary concepts: risk and return. Its four major sections develop and apply these concepts clearly and progressively, with outline and summary aids to enhance understanding and ample illustrations to reinforce the explanations.