Analysis Of Variability And Correlation In Long Term Economic Growth Rates
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Analysis Of Variability And Correlation In Long Term Economic Growth Rates
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Author : Mort David Webster
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Analysis Of Variability And Correlation In Long Term Economic Growth Rates written by Mort David Webster and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.
Quantifying the uncertainty in future climate change is an important input into policy decisions. Two important sources of uncertainty are economic growth and technological change, which in turn contribute to uncertainty in future emissions. In this paper, we focus on uncertainty in one type of technical change: productivity growth. Estimates of uncertainty in future growth must necessarily include expert judgment, since the future will not necessarily look like the past. But previous uncertainty studies have taken expert judgments based on annual national growth rates, and applied them to models with regional aggregations and multi-year time steps, and often have made crude assumptions about the correlation between regions. This paper analyzes data on the variability and covariability of historical economic productivity growth rates, and investigates the effect of spatial and temporal aggregation on variance. The results are intended to inform participants in expert elicitation exercises on future economic growth uncertainty.
The Level And Variability Of Inflation Output Growth And Money
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Author : Yeong-Chun Park
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1996
The Level And Variability Of Inflation Output Growth And Money written by Yeong-Chun Park and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996 with Inflation (Finance) categories.
This paper investigates various long-run relationships among the level and variability of money growth, inflation and real output growth using cross-section analysis based on 90 countries' time series data. The empirical results presented in this paper support the hypothesis that the variability of inflation is positively related to the level of inflation, and also suggest the existence of the threshold level of inflation for the sample period of the 1980s and early 1990s. The results also show that inflation variability appears to have insignificant relationships with the long-run average growth rate of real output overall. The positive relationship between two variables prevails during the 1970s, but this relationship weakens considerably during the 1980s and early 1990s. The OECD group has consistently positive slope coefficients for all considered sample periods. The empirical results of this paper also confirm the well-known proposition that money is very closely related to the rate of inflation, And, overall, the growth rate of money supply does not seem to have strong relationship with the long-run real output growth rate. However, the OECD group shows weak positive relationship between two variables, which appears to be the result of relatively strong positive correlation especially during the 1970s. For the Asian group, one of the fastest economic growth groups, the growth rate of money supply does not have one-for-one relationship with inflation, and has strong positive relationship with real output growth. This paper does not support the proposition of a significant negative relationship between the variability of money growth and the average growth rate of real output. However, especially after 1980, the relationship changes to negative. The evidence presented in this paper shows that both the level or variability of inflation and the level or variability of money growth has positive relationship with the variability of real output growth. This result suggests that we may have to consider an additional welfare cost of high inflation or high money growth (and high variability of those) since they tend to induce unstable economic growth pattern even though they play no important role on the determination of the long-run average growth rate of real output.
Public Debt And Growth
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Author : Jaejoon Woo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-07-01
Public Debt And Growth written by Jaejoon Woo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-07-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.
Economic Growth And Transition
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Author : Hui Ying Sng
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2010
Economic Growth And Transition written by Hui Ying Sng and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is the first of its kind to systematically analyze and apply Lim Chong Yah's S-Curve Hypothesis to the various facets of economic growth and economic transition. By augmenting the mathematical and economical sophistication of the hypothesis, this book extends the S-Curve hypothesis to provide further insight into economic growth and transition. It also utilizes a construction of a stochastic growth model to provide the microeconomic foundation for the S-Curve hypothesis. This model resolves the puzzle of why some developing countries experience economic take-off, while others do not. The book analyzes and extends discussion on the S-Curve, and also applies the S-Curve hypothesis to predict long-term growth in Japan and Singapore. It serves as an excellent resource for people interested in Lim's growth theory.
International Handbook On The Economics Of Energy
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Author : Lester C. Hunt
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2011-01-01
International Handbook On The Economics Of Energy written by Lester C. Hunt and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
As an essential component for economic growth, energy has a significant impact on the global economy. The need to meet growing energy demand has prompted cutting-edge innovation in clean technology in an attempt to realise environmental and cost objectives, whilst ensuring the security of energy supply. This Handbook offers a comprehensive review of the economics of energy, including contributions from a distinguished array of international specialists. It provides a thorough discussion of the major research issues in this topical field of economics. Themes addressed include the theory of energy supply, demand and policy, empirical modelling of energy demand, holistic energy models, an analysis of coal, gas, electricity, oil and the markets within which they operate, and a discussion of the current key energy policy issues. The topics of pricing, transmission, regulation, security, energy efficiency, new technologies and climate change are also discussed. The International Handbook on the Economics of Energy presents a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art research making it an indispensable reference for researchers, advanced students, practitioners and policy-makers alike.
Climate Economics
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Author : Richard S.J. Tol
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2023-03-02
Climate Economics written by Richard S.J. Tol and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-02 with Business & Economics categories.
This thoroughly revised third edition offers comprehensive coverage of the economics of climate change and climate policy, and is a suitable guide for advanced undergraduate, postgraduate, and doctoral students. Topics discussed include the costs and benefits of adaptation and mitigation, discounting, uncertainty, equity, policy instruments, the second best, and international agreements.
High And Rising Mortality Rates Among Working Age Adults
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Author : National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021-12-02
High And Rising Mortality Rates Among Working Age Adults written by National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-02 with categories.
How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth
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Author : Mr.Ari Aisen
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-01-01
How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth written by Mr.Ari Aisen and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, we find that higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP per capita. Regarding the channels of transmission, we find that political instability adversely affects growth by lowering the rates of productivity growth and, to a smaller degree, physical and human capital accumulation. Finally, economic freedom and ethnic homogeneity are beneficial to growth, while democracy may have a small negative effect.
Hysteresis And Business Cycles
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Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-29
Hysteresis And Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Determinants Of Economic Growth
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Author : Robert J. Barro
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 1997
Determinants Of Economic Growth written by Robert J. Barro and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Business & Economics categories.
Summarizes recent research from hundreds of empirical studies on economic growth across countries that have highlighted the correlation between growth and a variety of variables.