Analyst Disagreement Forecast Bias And Stock Returns
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Analyst Disagreement Forecast Bias And Stock Returns
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Author : Anna Scherbina
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Analyst Disagreement Forecast Bias And Stock Returns written by Anna Scherbina and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with categories.
We present evidence of inefficient information processing in equity markets by documenting that biases in analysts' earnings forecasts are reflected in stock prices. In particular, we show that investors fail to fully account for optimistic bias associated with analyst disagreement. This bias arises for two reasons. First, analysts issue more optimistic forecasts when earnings are uncertain. Second, analysts with sufficiently low earnings expectations who choose to keep quiet introduce an optimistic bias in the mean reported forecast that is increasing in the underlying disagreement. Indicators of the missing negative opinions predict earnings surprises and stock returns. By selling stocks with high analyst disagreement institutions exert correcting pressure on prices.
On The Association Between Analysts Forecast Errors And Past Stock Returns
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Author : Xia Chen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
On The Association Between Analysts Forecast Errors And Past Stock Returns written by Xia Chen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
Prior studies (e.g., Lys and Sohn 1990; Ali, Klein and Rosenfeld 1992) have documented a positive association between analysts' forecast errors and past stock returns and suggested cognitive bias on the part of analysts as a possible explanation. In this paper, we separately analyze the association between forecast errors and past negative returns and that between forecast errors and past positive returns. We find that forecast errors are only positively associated with past negative returns and are not associated with past positive returns. These results are robust to a series of sensitivity tests. They are inconsistent with analysts being subject to cognitive bias; instead, they are consistent with several explanations related to accounting conservatism or analysts' incentives: analysts having difficulty in forecasting discretionary charges associated with past negative returns, analysts not exerting effort in forecasting earnings of firms with poor performance, or analysts ignoring bad news in order to please managers.
Expectations And The Structure Of Share Prices
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Author : John G. Cragg
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2009-05-15
Expectations And The Structure Of Share Prices written by John G. Cragg and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-05-15 with Business & Economics categories.
John G. Cragg and Burton G. Malkiel collected detailed forecasts of professional investors concerning the growth of 175 companies and use this information to examine the impact of such forecasts on the market evaluations of the companies and to test and extend traditional models of how stock market values are determined.
Analysts Forecast Dispersion And Stock Market Anomalies
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Author : Tingting Liu
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Analysts Forecast Dispersion And Stock Market Anomalies written by Tingting Liu and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
We show that understanding the role of analysts' forecast bias is central to discovering the behavior that causes some stocks to have high analyst forecast dispersion. This finding is important because stocks with high analyst forecast dispersion contribute significantly to many important anomalies. We first explain how forecast bias produces significant negative future returns in the high dispersion portfolio. Next we examine the effect of these stocks on momentum returns, the profitability anomaly, and post-earnings announcement drift. Finally, we examine the performance of four asset pricing models focusing on the model's ability to explain the returns to these high dispersion stocks.
The Role Of Anchoring Bias In The Equity Market
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Author : Ling Cen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
The Role Of Anchoring Bias In The Equity Market written by Ling Cen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.
Ldquo;Anchoringrdquo; describes the fact that in forming numerical estimates of uncertain quantities, adjustments in assessments away from an arbitrary initial value are often insufficient. We show that this cognitive bias has significant economic consequences for the efficiency of financial markets. We find that analysts make optimistic (pessimistic) forecasts when a firm's forecast earnings per share (FEPS) is lower (higher) than the industry median. Further, firms with FEPS greater (lower) than the industry median experience abnormally high (low) future stock returns, particularly around subsequent earnings announcement dates. Finally, split firms experience greater positive forecast revisions, larger forecast errors, and larger negative earnings surprises after a stock split compared to which did not split their stocks, especially for firms with a low FEPS relative to the industry median.
Does Investor Sentiment Affect Sell Side Analysts Forecast Bias And Forecast Accuracy
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Author : Beverly R. Walther
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Does Investor Sentiment Affect Sell Side Analysts Forecast Bias And Forecast Accuracy written by Beverly R. Walther and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
We examine the association between investor expectations and its components and sell-side analysts' short-run quarterly earnings forecast bias and forecast accuracy. To measure investor expectations, we use the Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE) survey and decompose it into the “fundamental” component related to underlying economic factors (FUND) and the “sentiment” component unrelated to underlying economic factors (SENT). We find that analysts are the most optimistic and the least accurate when SENT is higher. Management long-horizon earnings forecasts attenuate the effects of SENT on forecast optimism and forecast accuracy. Analysts are also the most accurate when FUND is higher. Last, the market places more weight on unexpected earnings when SENT is high. These findings suggest that analysts are affected by investor sentiment and the market reacts more strongly to unexpected earnings when analyst forecasts are the least accurate. The last result potentially explains why prior research (for example, Baker and Wurgler 2006) finds an association between investor sentiment and cross-sectional stock returns.
Bias In Analysts Earnings Forecasts As An Explanation For The Long Run Underperformance Of Stocks Following Equity Offerings
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Author : Ashiq Ali
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Bias In Analysts Earnings Forecasts As An Explanation For The Long Run Underperformance Of Stocks Following Equity Offerings written by Ashiq Ali and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.
For firms conducting initial or seasoned equity offerings, recent studies document that their stock returns are lower than those of non-issuers for about five years following the issue, and this underperformance is greater for small issuers. This study shows that analysts' earnings forecasts have greater optimistic bias for issuers than for non-issuers during the five year period. Moreover, the incremental optimistic bias is greater for small issuers. This result is consistent with the Loughran and Ritter (1995) conjecture that one of the reasons for the long-run underperformance of issuers' stocks is optimistic bias in the market's expectations of these firms' earnings.
Financial Analysts Forecasts And Stock Recommendations
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Author : Sundaresh Ramnath
language : en
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Release Date : 2008
Financial Analysts Forecasts And Stock Recommendations written by Sundaresh Ramnath and has been published by Now Publishers Inc this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Business & Economics categories.
Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.
Noise In Expectations
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Author : Tim de Silva
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Noise In Expectations written by Tim de Silva and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with categories.
This paper quantifies the amount of noise and bias in analysts' forecast of corporate earnings at various horizons. We first show analyst forecasts outperform statistical forecasts at short-horizons, but underperform at longer horizons. We next decompose the relative accuracy of these forecasts into three components: (i) noise, (ii) bias and (iii) analysts' information advantage over statistical forecasts. We find the information advantage is constant across forecasting horizons, while both noise and bias are increase linearly. We then show most existing models lack a mechanism to account for these facts. To generate such a mechanism, we consider a parsimonious variant of the model of Patton and Timmermann (2010) with a noisy cognitive default and show it quantitatively fits the data. The intuition underlying this model is that forecasters rely on their biased and noisy defaults more at longer horizons, as rational forecasts are less accurate. This model also quantitatively matches two non-targeted empirical relationships: (i) analyst disagreement increases with horizon and (ii) noise is an increasing function of volatility.
Disagreement Underreaction And Stock Returns
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Author : Ling Cen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Disagreement Underreaction And Stock Returns written by Ling Cen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
We explore analysts' earnings forecast data to improve upon one popular disagreement measure -- the analyst forecast dispersion measure -- proposed by Diether, Malloy, and Scherbina (2002). Our analysis suggests that changes in the standard deviations of forecasted earnings can work as a complementary disagreement measure that is comparable across stocks and immune from other return-predictive information contained in the normalization scalars of analyst forecast dispersion measures. We also document evidence that the change-based disagreement measure predicts future cross-sectional returns significantly only when changes in the mean forecasts are negative. This finding suggests that the interaction between disagreement and underreaction to earnings news affects asset prices.