Assessing The Efficacy Of Borrower Based Macroprudential Policy Using An Integrated Micro Macro Model For European Households
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Micro Assessment Of Macroprudential Borrower Based Measures In Lithuania
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Author : Mantas Dirma
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-10-27
Micro Assessment Of Macroprudential Borrower Based Measures In Lithuania written by Mantas Dirma and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-10-27 with Business & Economics categories.
Despite having introduced borrower-based measures (BBM), Lithuania's housing and mortgage markets were booming during the low-interest-rate period, casting doubt on the macroprudential toolkit's ability to contain excessive mortgage growth. This paper assesses the adequacy of BBMs’ parametrization in Lithuania. We do so by building a novel lifetime expected credit loss framework that is founded on actual loan-level default and household income data. We show that the BBM package effectively contains mortgage credit risk and that housing loans are more resilient to stress than in the preregulatory era. Our BBM limit calibration exercise reveals that (1) in the low-rate environment, income-based measures could have been tighter; and (2) borrowers taking out secondary mortgages rightly are and should be required to pledge a higher down payment.
Macroprudential Policy Calibration For Greece
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Author : Mr. Marco Gross
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-02-20
Macroprudential Policy Calibration For Greece written by Mr. Marco Gross and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-02-20 with Business & Economics categories.
The Greek financial system has remained resilient underpinned by strengthening banks’ balance sheets, but still faces significant challenges ahead including the re-emergence of imbalances in the real estate market. Recognizing these imbalances, the authorities have recently introduced the necessary legal framework for setting borrower-based measures (BBMs), paving the way to activate both income- and collateral-based measures in near term. Simulations, which employ a quantitative framework combining micro- and macro-level data, show that BBMs would help enhance household resilience, with synergies when caps on debt service-to-income (DSTI) and loan-to-value (LTV) ratios are jointly implemented, leading over time to the more resilient banking system against potential risks. Caps could initially be set at less binding levels and gradually tightened based on a systemic risk assessment.
A Generalized Framework For The Assessment Of Household Financial Vulnerability
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Author : Mindaugas Leika
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-07
A Generalized Framework For The Assessment Of Household Financial Vulnerability written by Mindaugas Leika and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Household financial fragility has received considerable attention following the global financial crisis, but substantial gaps remain in the analytical underpinnings of household financial vulnerability assessment, as well as in data availability. This paper aims at integrating the contributions in the literature in a coherent fashion. The study proposes also analytical and estimation extensions aimed at improving the quality of estimates and allowing the assessment of household financial vulnerability in presence of data limitations. The result of this effort is a comprehensive framework, that has wide applicability to both advanced and developing economies. For illustrative purposes the paper includes a detailed application to one developing country (Namibia).
Debt Service And Default Calibrating Macroprudential Policy Using Micro Data
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Author : Erlend Nier
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-08-22
Debt Service And Default Calibrating Macroprudential Policy Using Micro Data written by Erlend Nier and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-08-22 with Business & Economics categories.
We provide empirical evidence to support the calibration of a limit on household indebtedness levels, in the form of a cap on the debt-service-to-income (DSTI) ratio, in order to reduce the probability of borrower defaults in Romania. The analysis establishes two findings that are new to the literature. First, we show that the relationship between DSTI and probability of default is non-linear, with probability of default responding to increases in DSTI only after a certain threshold. Second, we establish that consumer loan defaults occur at lower levels of DSTI compared to mortgages. Our results support the recent regulation adopted by the National Bank of Romania, limiting the household DSTI at origination to 40 percent for new mortgages and consumer loans. Our counterfactual analysis indicates that had the limit been in place for all the loans in our sample, the probability of default (PD) would have been lower by 23 percent.
Japan Financial Sector Assessment Program Technical Note On Systemic Risk Analysis And Stress Testing
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-05-13
Japan Financial Sector Assessment Program Technical Note On Systemic Risk Analysis And Stress Testing written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-05-13 with Business & Economics categories.
The Japanese financial system has remained resilient through a series of shocks including the COVID-19 pandemic. Japan’s large and globally well-integrated financial system withstood the pandemic shock, aided by strong capital and liquidity buffers and extensive policy support. Credit provision to the private sector has remained robust since the pandemic, supporting a steady economic recovery.
Macroprudential Policy Effects
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Author : Nina Biljanovska
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-03-31
Macroprudential Policy Effects written by Nina Biljanovska and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-31 with Business & Economics categories.
The global financial crisis (GFC) underscored the need for additional policy tools to safeguard financial stability and ultimately macroeconomic stability. Systemic financial vulnerabilities had developed under a seemingly tranquil macroeconomic surface of low inflation and small output gaps. This challenged the precrisis view that achieving these traditional policy targets was a sufficient condition for macroeconomic stability. Thus, new tools had to be deployed to target specific financial vulnerabilities and to build buffers to cushion adverse aggregate shocks, while allowing traditional policy levers, including monetary and microprudential policies to focus on their traditional roles. Macroprudential policy measures emerged as the solution to this gap. Some of these measures had been used before the GFC (mostly in emerging markets). But it was only after the crisis that they were more widely adopted, and the toolkit expanded. This spurred a growing body of empirical research on the effects and potential shortfalls of these measures, with a further deepening of this knowledge gaining importance as policymakers confront increased financial stability risks in the post-pandemic world. Recognizing that there still is much to learn, this paper takes stock of our expanding understanding about the effects (and side effects) of macroprudential measures by focusing on these questions: What have we learned about the effects of macroprudential policy in containing the buildup of vulnerabilities? What do we know about the effects on economic activity and resilience? How do policy effects vary with conditions and over time? How important are leakages and circumvention? How do the effects on credit depend on other policies?
Greece
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Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-01-24
Greece written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-01-24 with Business & Economics categories.
Greece: Selected Issues
Macroprudential Stress Tests And Policies Searching For Robust And Implementable Frameworks
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Author : Ron Anderson
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-09-11
Macroprudential Stress Tests And Policies Searching For Robust And Implementable Frameworks written by Ron Anderson and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Macroprudential stress testing (MaPST) is becoming firmly embedded in the post-crisis policy-frameworks of financial-sectors around the world. MaPSTs can offer quantitative, forward-looking assessments of the resilience of financial systems as a whole, to particularly adverse shocks. Therefore, they are well suited to support the surveillance of macrofinancial vulnerabilities and to inform the use of macroprudential policy-instruments. This report summarizes the findings of a joint-research effort by MCM and the Systemic-Risk-Centre, which aimed at (i) presenting state-of-the-art approaches on MaPST, including modeling and implementation-challenges; (ii) providing a roadmap for future-research, and; (iii) discussing the potential uses of MaPST to support policy.
What Drives Mortgage Default Risk In Europe And The U S
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Author : Mr. Marco Gross
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-04
What Drives Mortgage Default Risk In Europe And The U S written by Mr. Marco Gross and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-04 with Business & Economics categories.
We present an analysis of the sensitivity of household mortgage probabilities of default (PDs) and loss given default (LGDs) on unemployment rates, house price growth, interest rates, and other drivers. A structural micro-macro simulation model is used to that end. It is anchored in the balance sheets and income-expense flow data from about 95,000 households and 230,000 household members from 21 EU countries and the U.S. We present country-specific nonlinear regressions based on the structural model simulation-implied relation between PDs and LGDs and their drivers. These can be used for macro scenario-conditional forecasting, without requiring the conduct of the micro simulation. We also present a policy counterfactual analysis of the responsiveness of mortgage PDs, LGDs, and bank capitalization conditional on adverse scenarios related to the COVID-19 pandemic across all countries. The economics of debt moratoria and guarantees are discussed against the background of the model-based analysis.
Panama
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-07-19
Panama written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-07-19 with categories.
Since the 2012 FSAP, Panama has significantly strengthened its institutional framework and instruments for macroprudential policy-making. Among other reforms, to strengthen the transparency of and accountability for macroprudential policy, the Superintendency of Banks of Panama (SBP) and the Financial Coordination Council (CCF) have made significant progress in implementing several of the recent high-priority IMF technical assistance (TA) recommendations. These include establishing a dedicated Macroprudential Policy Committee (CPMP), updating the SBP’s decision making process for macroprudential policy issues, drafting a macroprudential policy strategy document, improving public communication via the Financial Stability Report (FSR), and addressing data gaps. The CCF also made notable advancements in establishing its own Committee on Macroprudential Policy, developing member entities’ capacity on macroprudential policy, and gathering data.