Bond Risk Premia In Consumption Based Models
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Bond Risk Premia In Consumption Based Models
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Author : Drew D. Creal
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Bond Risk Premia In Consumption Based Models written by Drew D. Creal and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with Bonds categories.
Workhorse Gaussian affine term structure models (ATSMs) attribute time-varying bond risk premia entirely to changing prices of risk, while structural models with recursive preferences credit it completely to stochastic volatility. We reconcile these competing channels by introducing a novel form of external habit into an otherwise standard model with recursive preferences. The new model has an ATSM representation with analytical bond prices making it empirically tractable. We find that time variation in bond term premia is predominantly driven by the price of risk, especially, the price of expected inflation risk that co-moves with expected inflation itself.
Asset Pricing
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Author : John H. Cochrane
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2009-04-11
Asset Pricing written by John H. Cochrane and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-04-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Winner of the prestigious Paul A. Samuelson Award for scholarly writing on lifelong financial security, John Cochrane's Asset Pricing now appears in a revised edition that unifies and brings the science of asset pricing up to date for advanced students and professionals. Cochrane traces the pricing of all assets back to a single idea--price equals expected discounted payoff--that captures the macro-economic risks underlying each security's value. By using a single, stochastic discount factor rather than a separate set of tricks for each asset class, Cochrane builds a unified account of modern asset pricing. He presents applications to stocks, bonds, and options. Each model--consumption based, CAPM, multifactor, term structure, and option pricing--is derived as a different specification of the discounted factor. The discount factor framework also leads to a state-space geometry for mean-variance frontiers and asset pricing models. It puts payoffs in different states of nature on the axes rather than mean and variance of return, leading to a new and conveniently linear geometrical representation of asset pricing ideas. Cochrane approaches empirical work with the Generalized Method of Moments, which studies sample average prices and discounted payoffs to determine whether price does equal expected discounted payoff. He translates between the discount factor, GMM, and state-space language and the beta, mean-variance, and regression language common in empirical work and earlier theory. The book also includes a review of recent empirical work on return predictability, value and other puzzles in the cross section, and equity premium puzzles and their resolution. Written to be a summary for academics and professionals as well as a textbook, this book condenses and advances recent scholarship in financial economics.
Predictability Of Bond Risk Premia With An Affine Term Structure Model
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Author : Sibel Korkmaz
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Predictability Of Bond Risk Premia With An Affine Term Structure Model written by Sibel Korkmaz and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
Macroeconomic Drivers Of Bond And Equity Risks
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Author : John Y. Campbell
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Macroeconomic Drivers Of Bond And Equity Risks written by John Y. Campbell and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
Our new model of consumption-based habit formation preferences generates loglinear, homoscedastic macroeconomic dynamics and time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free interest rate takes the form of an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation, commonly assumed in New Keynesian models. Estimating the model separately for 1979–2001 and 2001–2011 explains why the exposure of U.S. Treasury bonds to the stock market changed from positive to negative. A change in the comovement between inflation and the output gap explains changing bond risks but only when risk premia change endogenously as predicted by the model.
Bond Risk Premia
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Author : Harald Tolleshaug
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Bond Risk Premia written by Harald Tolleshaug and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
Forecasting the expected returns on bonds with increasing certainty is wanted from all rational investors in the fixed income markets. The potential for higher returns increase with the ability to forecast expected returns, through better trading payoffs and improved hedging and risk management. The expectations hypothesis was long prevailing in the academical litterature. It stated that the rational investor was expected to require zero or at least a constant excess return on bonds with long maturity over short maturity. This is equal to no time varying risk premiums. It is however reasonable for the rational investor to have time varying risk preferences based on the economic situation and outlook for the future, as described by Cochrane (1999). Thus, bonds with different maturity may be priced with different risk in an efficient market, and accordingly have time varying risk premiums. The expectations hypothesis has thus been rejected. This has been manifested through the classical studies of Fama and Bliss (1987) as well as Campbell and Shiller (1991). These studies modelled predictions of bond returns on specific maturities, with a R2 up to 18%. In a new and original approach, Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) models a single-factor that predicts bond returns of any maturity, with a R2 up to 44%, more than doubled from the studies mentioned above. This is done on the same dataset as Fama and Bliss (1987) used and would be a big discovery within the field, if the model can be accepted across time and datasets. I test the model of Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) based on the framework that these used originally, as well as new tests they have provided as response to critique of the model. So far, no other paper has rejected this model on all these dimensions. I use very well accepted data, and reject the model in every dimension tested. This paper is thus the rejection of the Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) single-factor bond forecasting model.
Macroeconomic Drivers Of Bond And Equity Risks
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Author : John Y. Campbell
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Macroeconomic Drivers Of Bond And Equity Risks written by John Y. Campbell and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
Our new model of consumption-based habit formation preferences generates loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics and time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free interest rate takes the form of an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation, commonly assumed in New Keynesian models. Estimating the model separately for 1979-2001 and 2001-2011 explains why the exposure of US Treasury bonds to the stock market changed from positive to negative. A change in the comovement between inflation and the output gap explains changing bond risks, but only when risk premia change endogenously as predicted by the model.
Global Risk Premia On International Investments
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Author :
language : de
Publisher: Springer-Verlag
Release Date : 2013-07-01
Global Risk Premia On International Investments written by and has been published by Springer-Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-07-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Implementing unconditional as well as conditional beta pricing models, the author identifies global economic factors that affect the performance of international investments.
Idiosyncratic Risk Robustness And The Consumption Based Models Of The Yield Curve
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Author : Yuan Xu
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Idiosyncratic Risk Robustness And The Consumption Based Models Of The Yield Curve written by Yuan Xu and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
By Force Of Habit
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Author : John Y. Campbell
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1995
By Force Of Habit written by John Y. Campbell and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995 with Capital assets pricing model categories.
We present a consumption-based model that explains the procyclical variation of stock prices, the long-horizon predictability of excess stock returns, and the countercyclical variation of stock market volatility. Our model has an i.i.d. consumption growth driving process, and adds a slow-moving external habit to the standard power utility function. The latter feature produces cyclical variation in risk aversion, and hence in the prices of risky assets. Our model also predicts many of the difficulties that beset the standard power utility model, including Euler equation rejections, no correlation between mean consumption growth and interest rates, very high estimates of risk aversion, and pricing errors that are larger than those of the static CAPM. Our model captures much of the history of stock prices, given only consumption data. Since our model captures the equity premium, it implies that fluctuations have important welfare costs. Unlike many habit-persistence models, our model does not necessarily produce cyclical variation in the risk free interest rate, nor does it produce an extremely skewed distribution or negative realizations of the marginal rate of substitution.
Financial Markets And The Real Economy
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Author : John H. Cochrane
language : en
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Release Date : 2005
Financial Markets And The Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and has been published by Now Publishers Inc this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Business & Economics categories.
Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.