Can The Distributional Impacts Of Macroeconomic Shocks Be Predicted
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Can The Distributional Impacts Of Macroeconomic Shocks Be Predicted A Comparison Of The Performance Of Macro Micro Models With Historical Data For Brazil
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004
Can The Distributional Impacts Of Macroeconomic Shocks Be Predicted A Comparison Of The Performance Of Macro Micro Models With Historical Data For Brazil written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with categories.
Can The Distributional Impacts Of Macroeconomic Shocks Be Predicted
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Author : Francisco H. G. Ferreira
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004
Can The Distributional Impacts Of Macroeconomic Shocks Be Predicted written by Francisco H. G. Ferreira and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Brazil categories.
Predicting The Distributional Impacts Of Macroeconomic Shocks
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2003
Predicting The Distributional Impacts Of Macroeconomic Shocks written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Brazil categories.
Knowing When You Do Not Know
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Author : Ambar Narayan
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2012-01-12
Knowing When You Do Not Know written by Ambar Narayan and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-01-12 with Business & Economics categories.
Economists have long sought to predict how macroeconomic shocks will affect individual welfare. Macroeconomic data and forecasts are easily available when crises strike. But policy action requires not only understanding the magnitude of a macro shock, but also identifying which households or individuals are being hurt by (or benefit from) the crisis. A popular solution is to extrapolate the welfare impact of a shock from the historical response of income or consumption poverty to changes in output, by estimating an 'elasticity' of poverty to growth. Although this method provides an estimate for the aggregate poverty impact of a macro shock, it has limited value for analysts and policymakers alike. Aggregate numbers are useful to capture the attention of policymakers and the international community, but in the absence of any information on who is affected and to what extent, provide little guidance on what actions need to be taken. This volume outlines a more comprehensive approach to the problem, showcasing a microsimulation model, developed in response to demand from World Bank staff working in countries and country governments in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Starting with the idea of using simple macroeconomic projections as the 'macro linkages' to a micro behavioral model built from household data, the model was conceptualized, refined and tested in a diverse mix of countries: Bangladesh, Philippines, Mexico, Poland and Mongolia. The results fed into country policy dialogue and lending operations of Bank teams, as well as various reports, research papers and briefs.
The Macroeconomic And Distributional Effects Of Public Investment In Developing Economies
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Author : Davide Furceri
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-10-20
The Macroeconomic And Distributional Effects Of Public Investment In Developing Economies written by Davide Furceri and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-10-20 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper provides new empirical evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in developing economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify unanticipated changes in public investment, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output in the short and medium term, with an average short-term fiscal multiplier of about 0.2. We find some evidence that the effects are larger: (i) during periods of slack; (ii) in economies operating with fixed exchange rate regimes; (iii) in more closed economies; (iv) in countries with lower public debt; and (v) in countries with higher investment efficiency. Finally, we show that increases in public investment tend to lower income inequality.
The Distributional Effects Of Government Spending Shocks In Developing Economies
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Author : Davide Furceri
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-03-14
The Distributional Effects Of Government Spending Shocks In Developing Economies written by Davide Furceri and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-14 with Business & Economics categories.
We construct unanticipated government spending shocks for 103 developing countries from 1990 to 2015 and study their effects on income distribution. We find that unanticipated fiscal consolidations lead to a long-lasting increase in income inequality, while fiscal expansions lower inequality. The results are robust to several measures of income distribution and size of the fiscal shocks, to an alternative identification strategy, across expansions and recessions and across country groups (low-income countries versus emerging markets). An additional contribution of the paper is the computation of the medium-term inequality multiplier. This is on average about 1 in our sample, meaning that a cumulative decrease in government spending of 1 percent of GDP over 5 years is associated with a cumulative increase in the Gini coefficient over the same period of about 1 percentage point. The multiplier is larger for total government expenditure than for public investment and consumption (with the former having larger effect), likely due to the redistributive role of transfers. Finally, we find that (unanticipated) fiscal consolidations lead to an increase in poverty.
The Poverty And Distributional Impact Of Macroeconomic Shocks And Policies
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Author : B. Essama-Nssah
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
The Poverty And Distributional Impact Of Macroeconomic Shocks And Policies written by B. Essama-Nssah and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.
The importance of distributional issues in policymaking creates a need for empirical tools to assess the social impact of economic shocks and policies. This paper reviews some of the modeling approaches that are currently in use at the World Bank and other international financial institutions. The specification of these models is dictated by the issues at stake, the knowledge about the nature of the process involved, and the availability and reliability of relevant data. Furthermore, shocks and policies have macroeconomic, structural, and distributional implications. This creates interdependence between such policy issues. Finally, the distributional impact of shocks and policies hinges on the heterogeneity of socioeconomic agents with respect to endowments and behavior. In the end, each modeling approach should be judged on how well it handles the interdependence between policy issues and the heterogeneity of the stakeholders, given other constraints.
The Poverty And Distributional Impact Of Macroeconomic Shocks And Policies
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Author : Boniface Essama-Nssah
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2005
The Poverty And Distributional Impact Of Macroeconomic Shocks And Policies written by Boniface Essama-Nssah and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Financial crises categories.
"The importance of distributional issues in policymaking creates a need for empirical tools to assess the social impact of economic shocks and policies. This paper reviews some of the modeling approaches that are currently in use at the World Bank and other international financial institutions. The specification of these models is dictated by the issues at stake, the knowledge about the nature of the process involved, and the availability and reliability of relevant data. Furthermore, shocks and policies have macroeconomic, structural, and distributional implications. This creates interdependence between such policy issues. Finally, the distributional impact of shocks and policies hinges on the heterogeneity of socioeconomic agents with respect to endowments and behavior. In the end, each modeling approach should be judged on how well it handles the interdependence between policy issues and the heterogeneity of the stakeholders, given other constraints. " -- Cover verso.
The Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks On Inequality
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Author : Davide Furceri
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-01-18
The Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks On Inequality written by Davide Furceri and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-18 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper provides new evidence of the effect of monetary policy shocks on income inequality. Using a measure of unanticipated changes in policy rates for a panel of 32 advanced and emerging market countries over the period 1990-2013, the paper finds that contractionary (expansionary) monetary actions increase (reduce) income inequality. The effect, however, varies over time, depending on the type of the shocks (tightening versus expansionary monetary policy) and the state of the business cycle, and across countries depending on the share of labor income and redistribution policies. In particular, we find that the effect is larger for positive monetary policy shocks, especially during expansions. Looking across countries, we find that the effect is larger in countries with higher labor share of income and smaller redistribution policies. Finally, while an unexpected increase in policy rates increases inequality, changes in policy rates driven by an increase in growth are associated with lower inequality.
The Impact Of Macroeconomic Policies On Poverty And Income Distribution
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Author : Franτois Bourguignon
language : en
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Release Date : 2008-08-14
The Impact Of Macroeconomic Policies On Poverty And Income Distribution written by Franτois Bourguignon and has been published by Palgrave Macmillan this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-08-14 with Business & Economics categories.
This volume assembles methodologies and techniques to evaluate the poverty impact of macroeconomic policies. It deals with evaluating the impact of macro-economic policies or shocks on poverty and income distribution using cutting-edge approaches, presenting a comprehensive array of modern micro-simulation techniques.