Central Bank Credibility Before And After The Crisis
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Central Bank Credibility Before And After The Crisis
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Author : Michael D. Bordo
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Central Bank Credibility Before And After The Crisis written by Michael D. Bordo and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with Banks and banking, Central categories.
A new measure of credibility is constructed as a function of the differential between observed inflation and some estimate of the inflation rate that the central bank targets. The target is assumed to be met flexibly. Credibility is calculated for a large group of both advanced and emerging countries from 1980 to 2014. Financial crises reduce central bank credibility and central banks with strong institutional determinants tend to do better when hit by a shock of the magnitude of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The VIX, adopting an inflation target and central bank transparency, are the most common determinants of credibility. Similarly, real economic growth has a significant influence on central bank credibility even in inflation targeting economies. Hence, responding to real economic factors is necessarily detrimental to central bank credibility. Nevertheless, caution is in order about whether monetary authorities should take on broader responsibilities for the financial performance of economies.
Living Up To Expectations
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Author : Stephen Cole
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2023
Living Up To Expectations written by Stephen Cole and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023 with Macroeconomics categories.
This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks have imperfect credibility. Exploiting unique survey-based measures of expected inflation, output growth, and interest rates, we estimate a small-scale New Keynesian model for the United States and other G7 countries plus Spain allowing for deviations from full information rational expectations. In our model, the key parameter that aggregates heterogeneous expectations captures the central bank's credibility and affects the overall effectiveness of forward guidance. We find that the central banks of the U.S., the U.K., Germany, and other major advanced economies have similar levels of credibility (albeit far from full credibility); however, Japan's central bank credibility is much lower. For each country, our measure of credibility has declined over time, making forward guidance less effective. In a counterfactual analysis, we document that inflation would have been significantly higher, and the zero lower bound on short-term interest rates much less of an issue, in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis had the public perceived central bank forward guidance statements to be perfectly credible. Moreover, inflation would have declined more, and somewhat faster, with perfect credibility in the wake of the inflation surge post-COVID-19.
Central Bank Credibility Reputation And Inflation Targeting In Historical Perspective
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Author : Michael D. Bordo
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Central Bank Credibility Reputation And Inflation Targeting In Historical Perspective written by Michael D. Bordo and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with Banks and banking, Central categories.
This paper examines the historical evolution of central bank credibility using both historical narrative and empirics for a group of 16 countries, both advanced and emerging. It shows how the evolution of credibility has gone through a pendulum where credibility was high under the classical gold standard before 1914 before being lost and not fully regained until the 1980s. This characterization does not, however, seem to apply to the monetary history in the emerging markets examined in the paper. Nevertheless, credibility in all the economies examined has been enhanced in recent decades thanks to the adoption of inflation targeting. However, the recent financial crisis and the call for central banks to focus more on financial stability relying on macro prudential regulation may pose significant challenges for central bank credibility.
Central Banks At A Crossroads
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Author : Michael D. Bordo
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2016-06-09
Central Banks At A Crossroads written by Michael D. Bordo and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-06-09 with Business & Economics categories.
This book discusses the role of central banks and draws lessons from examining their evolution over the past two centuries.
Central Bank Credibility
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Author : Michael D. Bordo
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Central Bank Credibility written by Michael D. Bordo and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with Banks and banking, Central categories.
In this paper we provide empirical measures of central bank credibility and augment these with historical narratives from eleven countries. To the extent we are able to apply reliable institutional information we can also indirectly assess their role in influencing the credibility of the monetary authority. We focus on measures of inflation expectations, the mean reversion properties of inflation, and indicators of exchange rate risk. In addition we place some emphasis on whether credibility is particularly vulnerable during financial crises, whether its evolution is a function of the type of crisis or its kind (i.e., currency, banking, sovereign debt crises). We find credibility changes over time are frequent and can be significant. Nevertheless, no robust empirical connection between the size of an economic shock (e.g., the Great Depression) and loss of credibility is found. Second, the frequency with which the world economy experiences economic and financial crises, institutional factors (i.e., the quality of governance) plays an important role in preventing a loss of credibility. Third, credibility shocks are dependent on the type of monetary policy regime in place. Finally, credibility is most affected by whether the shock can be associated with policy errors.
Per Jacobsson Lecture
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-04-08
Per Jacobsson Lecture written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Since the grave disruption of the subprime market at the start of the global financial crisis triggered major turbulences in the functioning of money markets in all large advanced economies, central bankers have experienced extraordinarily demanding and difficult times, characterized by a succession of shocks unseen, in the advanced economies, since World War II. Given the structurally very different economies that central banks were dealing with, one could have expected that the shock of the crisis would have accentuated their differences and given rise to an even more diverse setof central bank policies, conceptual references, and measures in a selfish, inward-looking mode. Instead, however, a phenomenon of “practical and conceptual rapprochement” took place between central banks, amidst the economic and financial turmoil, with the closest central bank cooperation ever, as symbolically illustrated by the coordinated decrease of interest rates in October 2008. The crisis also started or accelerated a multidimensional process of convergence of key elements of monetary policy thinking and policymaking—“conceptual convergence”—that is far from being achieved, but calls for great attention from both academia and policymakers. This Per Jacobsson Lecture concentrates on this convergence process, reflecting as well on some theoretical and practical issues that are associated with unconventional monetary policy liquidity and quantitative measures and the forward guidance generalization, themselves part of the conceptual convergence phenomenon.
Inflation Targeting After The Crisis The Past Present And Future Of Monetary Policy
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Author : Matthias Runkel
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2014-12-09
Inflation Targeting After The Crisis The Past Present And Future Of Monetary Policy written by Matthias Runkel and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-12-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Seminar paper from the year 2012 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, grade: 7,5 (out of 10), Maastricht University, course: Macroeconomic Policy in Europe, language: English, abstract: For more than two decades has inflation targeting been shaping monetary policy. Inflation has successfully been brought down and stabilized. However, financial imbalances have arisen at the same time, resulting in the Great Recession that major economies are still struggling with. Monetary policy seems to have been overemphasizing price stability while underestimating the risks of financial imbalances. Even before the crisis did research point to this problem, but – as history teaches us – it does usually take events with major impact on the understanding of the economy for these to be decisively addressed. It seems legitimate to argue that the Great Recession is such an event. It is therefore of great importance to analyze possible consequences concerning monetary policy and inflation targeting in particular. The first section gives a brief history of monetary policy that shows how it has evolved over time and how economic events initiated major changes. Section 2 presents the concept of inflation targeting and how the lessons of history have been implemented into this policy framework. Section 3 discusses the shortcomings of inflation targeting that were revealed by the Great Recession and introduces several suggestions for modification that address these shortcomings
The Lender Of Last Resort Function After The Global Financial Crisis
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Author : Marc Dobler
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-01-22
The Lender Of Last Resort Function After The Global Financial Crisis written by Marc Dobler and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-01-22 with Business & Economics categories.
The global financial crisis (GFC) has renewed interest in emergency liquidity support (sometimes referred to as “Lender of Last Resort”) provided by central banks to financial institutions and challenged the traditional way of conducting these operations. Despite a vast literature on the topic, central bank approaches and practices vary considerably. In this paper we focus on, for the most part, the provision of idiosyncratic support, approaching it from an operational perspective; highlighting different approaches adopted by central banks; and also identifying some of the issues that arose during the GFC.
Monetary Policy In The New Normal
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Author : Mr.Tamim Bayoumi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-04-04
Monetary Policy In The New Normal written by Mr.Tamim Bayoumi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-04 with Business & Economics categories.
The proposed SDN would take stock of the current debate on the shape that monetary policy should take after the crisis. It revisits the pros and cons of expanding the objectives of monetary policy, the merits of turning unconventional policies into conventional ones, how to make monetary policy frameworks more resilient to the risk of being constrained by the zero-lower bound going forward, and the institutional challenges to preserve central bank independence with regards to monetary policy, while allowing adequate government oversight over central banks’ new responsibilities. It will draw policy conclusions where consensus has been reached, and highlight the areas where more work is needed to get more granular policy advice.
Central And Commercial Bank Balance Sheet Risk Before During And After The Global Financial Crisis
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Author : Joseph Crowley
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-02-27
Central And Commercial Bank Balance Sheet Risk Before During And After The Global Financial Crisis written by Joseph Crowley and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-02-27 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper presents an overview of exposures in the balance sheets of central banks, banks, and other depository institutions during the past decade, with emphasis on asset growth and currency composition. It exploits the IMF’s SRF-based monetary data to show: (i) there was a widely observed buildup of assets prior to the global financial crisis, but there has been no significant reduction in its wake; (ii) the foreign currency composition of the balance sheets of banks and other depository institutions remained remarkably constant in spite of the crisis, significant changes in the composition of balance sheets, and globalization, and does not seem to have been significantly influenced by the behavior of exchange rates; and (iii) exposure to households increased prior to the crisis, but this increased risk was offset by increased capitalization.