Climate Change Uncertainty And Decision Making
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Climate Change Uncertainty And Decision Making
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Author : Gregory Michael Paoli
language : en
Publisher: Institute for Risk Research, University of Waterloo
Release Date : 1994
Climate Change Uncertainty And Decision Making written by Gregory Michael Paoli and has been published by Institute for Risk Research, University of Waterloo this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Climatic changes categories.
Climate Change And Variability
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1997
Climate Change And Variability written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with categories.
Confronting Climate Uncertainty In Water Resources Planning And Project Design
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Author : Patrick A. Ray
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2015-08-20
Confronting Climate Uncertainty In Water Resources Planning And Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-08-20 with Business & Economics categories.
Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty And Learning About Climate Change
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Decision Making Under Uncertainty And Learning About Climate Change written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
The Effect Of Uncertainty On Decision Making About Climate Change Mitigation
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Author : Thomas S. Lontzek
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
The Effect Of Uncertainty On Decision Making About Climate Change Mitigation written by Thomas S. Lontzek and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
Uncertainty And Environmental Decision Making
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Author : Jerzy A. Filar
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2010-05-03
Uncertainty And Environmental Decision Making written by Jerzy A. Filar and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-05-03 with Science categories.
The 21st century promises to be an era dominated by international response to c- tain global environmental challenges such as climate change, depleting biodiversity and biocapacity as well as general atmospheric, water and soil pollution problems. Consequently, Environmental decision making (EDM) is a socially important ?eld of development for Operations Research and Management Science (OR/MS). - certainty is an important feature of these decision problems and it intervenes at very different time and space scales. The Handbook on “Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making” provides a guided tour of selected methods and tools that OR/MS offer to deal with these issues. Below, we brie?y introduce, peer reviewed, chapters of this handbook and the topics that are treated by the invited authors. The ?rst chapter is a general introduction to the challenges of environmental decision making, the use of OR/MS techniques and a range of tools that are used to deal with uncertainty in this domain.
Climate Change
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Author : Veronika Nemes
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
Climate Change written by Veronika Nemes and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Climatic changes categories.
Adapting To An Uncertain Climate
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Author : Tiago Capela Lourenço
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2014-04-14
Adapting To An Uncertain Climate written by Tiago Capela Lourenço and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-14 with Science categories.
Climate change highlights the challenges for long-term policy making in the face of persistent and irreducible levels of uncertainties. It calls for the development of flexible approaches, innovative governance and other elements that contribute to effective and adaptive decision-making. Exploring these new approaches is also a challenge for those involved in climate research and development of adaptation policy. The book provides a dozen real-life examples of adaptation decision making in the form of case studies: · Water supply management in Portugal, England and Wales and Hungary · Flooding, including flood risk in Ireland, coastal flooding and erosion in Southwest France, and flood management in Australia’s Hutt River region · Transport and utilities, including the Austrian Federal railway system, public transit in Dresden, and Québec hydro-electric power · Report examining communication of large numbers of climate scenarios in Dutch climate adaptation workshops.
Robust Decision Making For Forest Management Under Climate Change And Uncertainty
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Author : Naomi Radke
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Robust Decision Making For Forest Management Under Climate Change And Uncertainty written by Naomi Radke and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with Climatic changes categories.
Abstract: Due to its long-term nature, forest management faces various uncertainties that may negatively impact the forest and its provision of services to nature and humans. The most prominent uncertainty that raises a lot of attention in forest science is climate change. The recent drought years have strongly impacted the forest and increased mortality, leading to forest diebacks in Germany and many other parts of the world. This intensified public awareness regarding forest mortality and raised the need to deal with adaptive forest management. Climate change and many other uncertainties that strongly impact the delivery of ecosystem goods and services from forests can be considered as deep and dynamic over time. Deep uncertainty is characterized by the inability to attach a single probability distribution to a set of possible outcomes. In order to integrate it in decision-making it requires non-probabilistic approaches that explore the decision and uncertainty space under a large set of plausible scenarios of the uncertain factors. The question how to deal with deeply uncertain situations and how to integrate deep uncertainties in decision making processes, analytically and methodologically, has opened up a whole new field of research that is known as "robust decision making under deep uncertainty" that especially found a rise since the early 2000's. Originally settled in the field of water resources management, it finds increasing application in other fields of natural resources management under uncertain (climate) change both in science and in practice. The core design principles of these Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches include i) the use of Exploratory Modelling over large uncertainty and management scenarios to explore the uncertainty and decision space and ii) the dynamic nature of decision making, which bases decisions and actions on so-called observed signposts that signal when and how to adapt. Until today it has found only very limited application in forest management. Few studies have applied similar concepts with simplified methods or have applied Robust Optimization, which is viewed as critical when applied under deep uncertainty. Against this background, this thesis explores the application of RDM approaches to the field of forest management as a new application domain. What robust decision making approaches exist and how have they been successfully applied to other fields of natural resources management? How could they be adapted to forest management as a new context? In order to design dynamic decision rules that adapt decision to observed signposts: What uncertainties can critically impact the performance of forest management and, based on the critical uncertainties, what could be potential signposts that signal the need to adapt current management? On that basis: How can dynamic adaptive decision rules be formulated and how could they improve the performance of current management and its robustness to climate change and other deep uncertainties? We started answering these questions by reviewing existing approaches to RDM and their application to natural resources management under climate change uncertainty (among other uncertainties). Next we used Exploratory Modelling, as an essential part of RDM, and a global sensitivity analysis in combination with a beech growth model to identify the relative impact of different sources of uncertainties on the management objectives and to identify potential signposts for adaptation. The analysis was conducted for an even-aged beech stand in South-West Germany, a test plot under classical beech management that is based on stand basal area at different time steps. We generally chose beech management (desired stand basal area) for our analysis as beech is the dominant tree species in Germany and considered as relatively robust to climate change. Based on the results we again used Exploratory Modelling and the growth model, as well as multi-objective optimization to derive adaptive decision rules based on observed signposts. We explored how they could improve robustness and performance in multiple objectives compared to a continuation of current management for different growth regions in Germany when facing climate change and other sources of deep uncertainty. We especially focused on past mortality as a signpost and mortality reduction as an objective, since the recent drought years have shifted the management focus in this direction. We found a number of RDM that follow a similar pattern. These approaches can easily be mixed and matched, depending on the decision context and analysis goal. With regard to measuring robustness we found that a global satisficing robustness metric is especially suited for forest management, since forest management is often tied to minimum performance standards. The sensitivity analysis revealed that different sources of uncertainties have a different relative impact, depending on the management objectives. For example, climate change showed the most critical impact on carbon sequestration, while it had a negligible impact on the Net Present Value of timber yield. We recommended, next to economic signposts, the use of past stand basal area or volume increment as a promising signpost for adaptation, since it is highly affected by climate change and is regularly tracked during forest inventories. Conversely, multi-objective optimization under uncertainty showed no clear relationship between past basal area increment and decisions regarding stand basal area (the decision lever). The reason might be that stand basal area does not send a strong signal regarding the change in management compared to a lever such as the amount of basal area per hectare removed. Yet, using past mortality as a signpost for an adaptive decision rule led to substantial increases in robustness and overall performance (except for carbon sequestration which was barely affected) for different growth regions in Germany. We observed that the potential for the adaptive decision rule is very region-specific. For the Norther growth regions robustness could not be increased to a high level, while for the central and southern German regions the adaptive decision rule led to total robustness. In conclusion, the results suggest a high potential for adaptive decision making based on signposts in forest management to achieve a higher robustness to climate change and other uncertainties. Extended research on the efficacy of different signposts and potential integration of multiple signposts into an adaptive decision rule could further improve the performance and robustness of adaptive decision making in forest management
Choosing A Decision Making Framework To Manage Uncertainty In Climate Adaptation Decision Making
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Author : Alan Randall
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Choosing A Decision Making Framework To Manage Uncertainty In Climate Adaptation Decision Making written by Alan Randall and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with Climatic changes categories.
This Handbook is intended to help people choose a decision-making framework to manage the uncertainty inherent in climate change adaptation decision-making. Climate change introduces additional sources of risk and uncertainty into many decision problems. Decision-making frameworks and decision tools can help people identify sources of uncertainty and the information have available they require to make decisions.