Determinants Of The Duration Of Economic Recoveries
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Determinants Of The Duration Of Economic Recoveries
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Author : Vítor Castro
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
Determinants Of The Duration Of Economic Recoveries written by Vítor Castro and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with categories.
This paper explores the effect of financial development on the duration of economic recoveries, considering a sample of 414 economic recoveries observed in 67 countries during the period 1989-2019. We define the duration of economic recovery, as the time it takes the economy to return to its potential output level. Using a continuous-time Weibull duration model, we find that a higher level of financial development tends to prolong the duration of economic recovery. Therefore, our findings indicate that a too highly developed financial system might delay a full recovery after a recession, supporting the notion that there is "too much finance". In particular, greater size of the underregulated sector of non-banking financial institutions (shadow banks) prolongs the economic recovery. Moreover, the emerging economies, with their generally poorer regulatory frameworks, are more negatively affected by "too much finance". Underlining the importance of an effective regulation of the entire financial system, our results also confirm that a higher regulátory quality limits the negative consequences of "too much finance".
Determinants Of Financial Stress And Recovery During The Great Recession
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Author : Joshua Aizenman
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Determinants Of Financial Stress And Recovery During The Great Recession written by Joshua Aizenman and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Capital movements categories.
Abstract: In this paper, we explore the link between stress in the domestic financial sector and the capital flight faced by countries in the 2008-9 global crisis. Both the timing of emergence of internal financial stress in developing economies, and the size of the peak-trough declines in the stock price indices was comparable to that in high income countries, indicating that there was no decoupling, even before Lehman Brothers' demise. Deleveraging of OECD positions seemed to dominate the patterns of capital flows during the crisis. While high income countries on average saw net capital inflows and net portfolio inflows during the crisis quarters, compared to net outflows for developing economies, the indicators of banking sector stress were higher for high income economies on average than for developing economies. Internal and external distress during crisis was closely interlinked with common underlying causes of both the severity of stress during the crisis and the recovery. External vulnerabilities were important in both phases, and higher international reserves did not insulate countries from stress
The Road To Recovery
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Author : Andrew Smithers
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2013-10-14
The Road To Recovery written by Andrew Smithers and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-14 with Business & Economics categories.
Renowned economist Andrew Smithers offers prescriptive advice and economic theory on avoiding the next financial crisis In The Road to Recovery, Andrew Smithers—one of a handful of respected economists to have accurately predicted the most recent global financial crisis—argues that the neoclassical consensus governing global economic decision-making must be revised in order to avoid the next financial collapse. He argues that the current low interest rates and budget deficits have prevented the recession becoming a depression but that those policies cannot be continuously repeated and a new consensus for action must be found. He offers practical guidance on reducing government, household, and business debt; changing the economic incentives for the management class that currently inhibit long-term growth; and rebalancing national economies both internally and externally. Further, he explains how central bankers must broaden the economic theories that guide their decisions to include the major factors of debt and asset prices. Offers practical, real-world economic policies for restructuring and rebalancing the global economic system Presents a modern economic theory for preventing the next collapse Ideal for economists, investors, fund managers, and central bankers Written by an economist described by the legendary Barton Biggs as "one of the five best, most dispassionate, erudite analysts in the world" As the global economy continues the long climb out of recession, it's imperative that central bankers and other economic decision-makers not repeat the mistakes of the past. The Road to Recovery offers prescriptive guidance on redesigning an economic system that is healthy, stable, and beneficial to all.
The Economics Of Transition
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Author : Ichiro Iwasaki
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2020-04-28
The Economics Of Transition written by Ichiro Iwasaki and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-04-28 with Business & Economics categories.
In the last three decades since the fall of the Berlin Wall, there has been a vast amount of study looking at transforming the planned economy to a market economy from both theoretical and empirical aspects. This book provides an overview and insight into transition economies in the recent decades and looks at key economics topics from the so-called “transition strategy debate” to environmental reform. The book also includes an analytical review and meta-analysis of the existing literature. By integrating theoretical discussions and synthesizing empirical findings in a systematic manner, this book may help to enlighten the debate on the timing, speed, and policy sequence of economic transition. The book will particularly appeal to researchers, policy makers, other practitioners, and under- and post-graduate students who are interested in transition economies in Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, Southeast Asia, and China. It aims to be read as an advanced reader.
After Effects Of The Covid 19 Pandemic Prospects For Medium Term Economic Damage
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Author : Mr. Philip Barrett
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-07-30
After Effects Of The Covid 19 Pandemic Prospects For Medium Term Economic Damage written by Mr. Philip Barrett and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-07-30 with Business & Economics categories.
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.
World Economic Outlook April 2009
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2009-04-22
World Economic Outlook April 2009 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-04-22 with Business & Economics categories.
This edition of the World Economic Outlook explores how a dramatic escalation of the financial crisis in September 2008 provoked an unprecedented contraction of activity and trade, despite active policy responses. It presents economic projections for 2009 and 2010, and also looks beyond the current crisis, considering factors that will shape the landscape of the global economy over the medium term, as businesses and households seek to repair the damage. The analysis also outlines the difficult policy challenges presented by the overwhelming imperative to take all steps necessary to restore financial stability and revive the global economy, and the longer-run need for national actions to be mutually supporting. The first of two analytical chapters, "What Kind of Economic Recovery?" explores the shape of the eventual recovery. The second, "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging and Developing Economies," focuses on the role of external financial linkages and financial stress in transmitting economic shocks.
A Decade After The Global Recession
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Author : M. Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-03-19
A Decade After The Global Recession written by M. Ayhan Kose and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well, in part by using the sizable fiscal and monetary policy ammunition accumulated during prior years of strong growth. However, their growth prospects have weakened since then, and many now have less policy space. This study provides the first comprehensive stocktaking of the past decade from the perspective of emerging market and developing economies. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and prepare for the possibility of another global downturn.
What Happens During Recessions Crunches And Busts
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Author : Mr.Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2008-12-01
What Happens During Recessions Crunches And Busts written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit contraction (crunch) episodes, 114 (28) episodes of house price declines (busts), 234 (58) episodes of equity price declines (busts) and their various overlaps in these countries over the sample period. Our results indicate that interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play major roles in determining the severity and duration of recessions. Specifically, we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions. JEL Classification Numbers: E32; E44; E51; F42
Determinants Of Economic Growth
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Author : Robert J. Barro
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 1997
Determinants Of Economic Growth written by Robert J. Barro and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Business & Economics categories.
Summarizes recent research from hundreds of empirical studies on economic growth across countries that have highlighted the correlation between growth and a variety of variables.
World Economic Outlook October 2018
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-10-09
World Economic Outlook October 2018 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-10-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.