Developing Pavement Performance Prediction Models And Decision Trees For The City Of Cincinnati
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Developing Pavement Performance Prediction Models And Decision Trees For The City Of Cincinnati
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Author : Arudi Rajagopal
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Developing Pavement Performance Prediction Models And Decision Trees For The City Of Cincinnati written by Arudi Rajagopal and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Pavements categories.
This report presents the details of a study conducted to develop pavement performance prediction models and decision trees for various families of pavements, using the data available with the City of Cincinnati. Required data was acquired from city's pavement inventory database. The road network was divided into two classifications namely, major roads and minor roads. These roads were further grouped based on their structural makeup. Statistical regression models were developed for each group. A decision tree was developed to suggest appropriate maintenance and rehabilitation activities based on the condition of the pavement. The city engineers can use these models in conjunction with their pavement management system to predict the future condition of the highway network in Cincinnati and to implement cost effective pavement management solutions. Using the methodology developed in this study, the engineers can also further improve the accuracy of the models in the future.
Development Of A Pavement Performance Prediction Model Using Multiple Regression
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Author : Dattatray Suresh Patil
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Development Of A Pavement Performance Prediction Model Using Multiple Regression written by Dattatray Suresh Patil and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Pavements categories.
Developing Cost Effective Pavement Maintenance And Rehabilitation Schedules
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Author : Gulfam Jannat
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Developing Cost Effective Pavement Maintenance And Rehabilitation Schedules written by Gulfam Jannat and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with Pavements categories.
Pavement Maintenance and Rehabilitation (M&R) are the most critical and expensive components of infrastructure asset management. Increasing traffic load, climate change and resource limitations for road maintenance accelerate pavement deterioration and eventually increase the need for future maintenance treatments. Consequently, pavement management programs are increasingly complex. The complexities are attributed to the precise assessment process of the overall pavement condition, realistic distress prediction and identification of cost-effective M&R schedules. Cost-effective road M&R practices are only possible when the evaluation of pavement condition is precise, pavement deterioration models are accurate, and resources must also be available at the right time. In a Pavement Management System (PMS), feasible M&R treatments are identified at the end of each branch of the decision trees. The decision trees are based on empirical relationships of the pavement performance index. Moreover, the predicted improvements in pavement performance for any treatment are set based on engineering experiences. Furthermore, the remaining service life of the pavement is estimated from the predicted deterioration of the overall condition. The future deterioration of the overall condition is estimated based on the initial condition and by considering only the effect of age notwithstanding the effect of traffic or materials. In assessing the overall condition of the pavement, this research overcomes the limitations of engineering judgment by incorporating a Mechanistic-Empirical (M-E) approach and estimating the improvement in performance for specific treatment types. It also considers the effect of traffic and materials on pavement performance to precisely predict its future deterioration and subsequent remaining service life. The objective of this research is to develop cost-effective pavement M&R schedules by incorporating (a) the M-E approach into the overall condition index and (b) the estimate of performance indices by considering the factors affecting pavement performance. The research objective will be accomplished by (i) incorporating variability analysis of existing performance evaluation practices and maintenance decisions of pavement, (ii) investigating estimates of existing performance indices, (iii) incorporating the M-E approach: sensitivity analysis, prediction, comparison and verification, (iv) estimating the deterioration model based on traffic characteristics and material types, and (v) identifying cost-effective M&R treatment options through Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA). This study uses the pavement performance data of Ontario highways recorded in the Ministry of Transportation (MTO) pavement database. Precise assessment of pavement condition is a significant part in achieving the research goal. In a PMS, an accurate location reference system is necessary for managing pavement evaluations and maintenance. The length of the pavement section selected for evaluation may have a significant impact on the assessment irrespective of the type of performance indices. In Ontario, the highway section lengths range from 50m to 50,000m. For this reason, a variability in performance evaluation is investigated due to changes in section length. This study considers rut depth, Pavement Condition Index (PCI), and International Roughness Index (IRI) as performance indices. The distributions of these indices are compared by the following groupings of section lengths: 50m, 500m, 1,000m and 10,000m. The variations of performance assessments due to changing section lengths are investigated based on their impact on maintenance decisions. A Monte Carlo simulation is carried out by varying section lengths to estimate probabilities of maintenance work requirements. Results of such empirical investigations reveal that most of the longer sections are evaluated with low rut depth and the shorter sections are evaluated with high rut depth. This Monte Carlo simulation also reveals that 50m sections have a higher probability of maintenance requirements than 500m sections. The method of estimating performance indices is also investigated to identify the requirement of improvement in estimation of the prediction models. Generally, in a PMS, the prediction models of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are estimated by using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) approach. However, the OLS approach can be inefficient if unobserved factors influencing individual KPIs are correlated with each other. For this reason, regression models for KPI predictions are estimated by using an approach called the 'Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR)' method. The M-E approach is used in this study to predict the future distresses by employing mechanistic-empirical models to analyze the impact of traffic, climate, materials and pavement structure. The Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) software uses a three-level hierarchical input to predict performance in terms of IRI, permanent deformation (rut depth), total cracking (reflective and alligator), asphalt concrete (AC) thermal fracture, AC bottom-up fatigue cracking and AC top-down fatigue cracking. However, these inputs have different levels of accuracy, which may have a significant impact on performance prediction. It would be ineffective to put effort for obtaining accuracy at Level 1 for all inputs. For this reason, a sensitivity analysis is carried out based on an experimental design to identify the effect of the accuracy level of inputs on the distresses. Following this, a local sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the main effect of input variables. Interaction effects are also analyzed based on a random combination of the inputs. Since the deterioration of pavement is affected by site-specific traffic, local climate and properties of materials, these variables are carefully considered during the development of the pavement deterioration model to assess overall pavement conditions. The prediction model is developed by using a regression approach considering distresses of the M-E approach. In this study, the deterioration model is estimated for three groups of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) to recognize their individual impact along with properties of materials. The time required for maintenance is also estimated for these categories. The investigations reveal that the expected time to maintenance for overlay with Dense Friction Course (DFC) and Superpave mixes is higher than other Hot Laid (HL) asphalt layers. This will help pavement designers and managers to make informed decisions. The probability of failure is also investigated by a probabilistic approach. With the increasing trend towards M&R of existing pavements, it is essential to make cost-effective use of the M&R budget. As such, identification of associated cost-effective M&R treatments is not always simple in most PMS. For this reason, a LCCA is carried out for alternate pavement treatments using the deterioration model based on traffic levels and material types. Comparing the Net Present Worth (NPW) value of alternative treatment options reveals that the overlay of pavement with DFC is the most cost-effective choice in the case of higher AADT. On the other hand, overlay with Hot Laid-1 (HL-1) is a cost-effective treatment option for highway sections with lower AADT. Although the results are related to the Ontario highway system, this can also be applied elsewhere with similar conditions. The outcome of the empirical investigations will result in the adoption of efficient road M&R programs for highways based on realistic performance predictions, which have significant impact on infrastructure asset management.
Geo Frontiers 2011
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Geo Frontiers 2011 written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.
Impact Of Transport Infrastructure Investment On Regional Development
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Author : OECD
language : en
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Release Date : 2002-05-23
Impact Of Transport Infrastructure Investment On Regional Development written by OECD and has been published by OECD Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-05-23 with categories.
This report describes evaluation methods for transport infrastructure investments to ensure that scarce resources are allocated in a way that maximises their net return to society.
Nchrp Report 552
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Nchrp Report 552 written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.
Thin And Ultra Thin Whitetopping
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Author : Robert Otto Rasmussen
language : en
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
Release Date : 2004
Thin And Ultra Thin Whitetopping written by Robert Otto Rasmussen and has been published by Transportation Research Board this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Pavements categories.
TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Synthesis 338: Thin and Ultra-Thin Whitetopping summarizes available information to document how state departments of transportation and others are currently using thin and ultra-thin whitetopping overlays among various pavement rehabilitation alternatives. The report covers all stages of the proper application of whitetopping overlays, including project selection, design, materials selection, construction, maintenance, and eventual rehabilitation or replacement.
Database Development For An Hma Pavement Performance Analysis System
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Author : Robert L. Schmitt (Ph.D.)
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Database Development For An Hma Pavement Performance Analysis System written by Robert L. Schmitt (Ph.D.) and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Pavements, Asphalt categories.
Protocol For Developing Nutrient Tmdls
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1999
Protocol For Developing Nutrient Tmdls written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Nutrient pollution of water categories.
Sustainable Low Carbon City Development In China
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Author : Axel Baeumler
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2012-04-12
Sustainable Low Carbon City Development In China written by Axel Baeumler and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-04-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This book summarizes experiences from the World Bank s activities related to low-carbon urban development in China. It highlights the need for low-carbon city development and presents details on specific sector-level experiences and lessons, a framework for action, and financing opportunities.