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Development Of A Forecasting Model To Predict The Downturn And Upturn Of A Real Estate Market In The Inland Empire


Development Of A Forecasting Model To Predict The Downturn And Upturn Of A Real Estate Market In The Inland Empire
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Development Of A Forecasting Model To Predict The Downturn And Upturn Of A Real Estate Market In The Inland Empire


Development Of A Forecasting Model To Predict The Downturn And Upturn Of A Real Estate Market In The Inland Empire
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Author : Thomas F. Flynn
language : en
Publisher: Universal-Publishers
Release Date : 2011-04

Development Of A Forecasting Model To Predict The Downturn And Upturn Of A Real Estate Market In The Inland Empire written by Thomas F. Flynn and has been published by Universal-Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04 with Business & Economics categories.


Amidst the dramatic real estate fluctuations in the first decade of the twenty-first century, this study recognized that there is a necessity to create a real estate prediction model for future real estate ventures and prevention of losses such as the mortgage meltdown and housing bust. This real estate prediction model study sought to reinstall the integrity into the American building and development industry, which was tarnished by the sudden emergence of various publications offering get-rich-quick schemes. In the fast-paced and competitive world of lending and real estate development, it is becoming more complex to combine current and evolving factors into a profitable business model. This prediction model correlated past real estate cycle pinpoints to economical driving forces in order to create an ongoing formula. The study used a descriptive, secondary interpretation of raw data already available. Quarterly data was taken from the study's seven independent variables over a 24-year span from 1985 to 2009 to examine the correlation over two real estate cycles. Public information from 97 quarters (1985-2009) was also gathered on seven topics: consumer confidence, loan origination volume, construction employment statistics, migration, GDP, inflation, and interest rates. The Null hypothesis underwent a test of variance at a .05 level of significance. Multiple regression analysis uncovered that four of seven variables have correlated and could predict movement in real estate cycle evidence from previous data, based in the Inland Empire. GDP, interest rates, loan origination volume, and inflation were the four economical driving variables that completed the Inland Empire's real estate prediction model and global test. Findings from this study certify that there is correlation between economical driving factors and the real estate cycle. These correlations illustrate patterns and trends, which can become a prediction model using statistics. By interpreting and examining the data, this study believes that the prediction model is best utilized through pinpointing an exact numerical location by running calculations through the established global equation, and recommends further research and regular update of quarterly trends and movements in the real estate cycle and specific variables in the formula.



Housing Affordability And Housing Policy In Urban China


Housing Affordability And Housing Policy In Urban China
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Author : Zan Yang
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2014-01-25

Housing Affordability And Housing Policy In Urban China written by Zan Yang and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-25 with Political Science categories.


This book provides a comprehensive analysis of housing affordability under the economic reforms and social transformations in urban China. It also offers an overall review of the current government measures on the housing market and affordable housing policies in China. By introducing a dynamic affordability approach and residual income approach, the book allows us to capture the size of the affordability gap more accurately, to better identify policy targets, and to assess the effectiveness of current public policy. The unique database on urban household surveys and regional information on affordable housing projects serve to strengthen the analysis. The book offers theoretical and empirical insights for in-depth affordability studies and helps readers to understand the social impacts of market reforms and the role of government on the Chinese housing market.



Advanced Forecasting Model On Land Market Value Based On Usa Real Estate Market


Advanced Forecasting Model On Land Market Value Based On Usa Real Estate Market
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Author : Lei Wang
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019

Advanced Forecasting Model On Land Market Value Based On Usa Real Estate Market written by Lei Wang and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with Electronic dissertations categories.


This research presents a time series estimation and prediction methods with the use of classic and advanced forecasting tools. Our discussion about di erent time series models is supported by giving the experimental forecast results, performed on several macroeconomic variables. Also, the main section deal with the experience of using such data in econometric analysis. Besides, the implementation of SAS and R software improve the parameter estimation and forecasting accuracy. The objective in providing crucial statistical techniques is to enable government and investors to make informed decisions regarding real estate. Most importantly, we obtain how to add value to business and apply skills set real estate in a real world environment. Eventually, the summary of various existing forecasting models can provide information to develop an appropriate forecasting model which describes the inherent feature of the series.



To Examine The Current Condition Of The U S Banking Industry And Projections For The Bank Insurance Fund


To Examine The Current Condition Of The U S Banking Industry And Projections For The Bank Insurance Fund
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Author : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1993

To Examine The Current Condition Of The U S Banking Industry And Projections For The Bank Insurance Fund written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Business & Economics categories.




Essays On Model Uncertainty And Real Estate Markets


Essays On Model Uncertainty And Real Estate Markets
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Author : Hui Xiao
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019

Essays On Model Uncertainty And Real Estate Markets written by Hui Xiao and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.


Chapter 1 focuses on model selection and model averaging, both of which are approaches for handling modelling uncertainties. I aim to supplement the literature by studying the class of OLS post-selection estimators. Inspired by the shrinkage averaging estimator (SAE) and the Mallows model averaging (MMA) criterion, I further propose a shrinkage MMA (SMMA) estimator for averaging high-dimensional sparse models. The Monte Carlo design features an expanding sparse parameter space and further considers the effect of the effective sample size and the degree of model sparsity on estimators' finite sample performances. I find that the SMMA outperforms when averaging high-dimensional sparse models. In Chapter 2, the conventional perfect competition model is inadequate for the heterogeneous, illiquid, and decentralized housing market, which clears via multiple local time-varying equilibria. I first propose a spatial search model that caters to such market characteristics and provides theoretical micro-foundations to motivate the econometric model. Then, I introduce a nonlinear spatiotemporal autoregressive model with autoregressive disturbances (NLSTARAR) and augmented by local time-varying factors to unify the current hedonic pricing framework and uncover the real estate market structure by simultaneously identifying the spatiotemporal structure of the market's spatial dependence and its interaction with the housing market microstructure. To address model uncertainty, I propose both model selection and model averaging estimation strategies. Chapter 3 applies the methodologies developed in Chapter 2 to study the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market using a unique GTA dataset. The NLSTARAR model captures the effects of the local time-varying market microstructure besides the hedonic, demographic, and policy effects on the housing market. By model selection, I show that the real estate pricing is driven by a local time-varying market structure that effectively responds to the heterogeneity in assets consistent with existing theories. The local time-varying market microstructure dominates the spatial spillover effects with unexpected market shocks generating the market volatility. I further employ the rolling window approach to show that the uncovered real estate market structure captures the shifts in the market state, evolves as a market pricing mechanism, and better forecasts the real estate market out-of-sample.



Regional Economics Forecasting


Regional Economics Forecasting
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Author : Sasithorn Wachirapornprut
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005

Regional Economics Forecasting written by Sasithorn Wachirapornprut and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with California, Southern categories.




Emerging Trends In Real Estate 2020


Emerging Trends In Real Estate 2020
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Author : Alan Billingsley
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019-09-26

Emerging Trends In Real Estate 2020 written by Alan Billingsley and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-26 with Real estate business categories.


Emerging Trends in Real Estate is one of the most highly regarded and widely read forecast reports in the real estate industry. This updated edition provides an outlook on real estate investment and development trends, real estate finance and capital markets, trends by property sector and metropolitan area, and other real estate issues around the globe. Comprehensive and invaluable, the book is based on interviews with leading industry experts and also covers what's happening in multifamily, retail, office, industrial, and hotel development.



Asian Development Outlook 2003


Asian Development Outlook 2003
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Release Date : 2003

Asian Development Outlook 2003 written by and has been published by Oxford University Press, USA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Business & Economics categories.


It Is The 15Th Edition Of The Annual Comprehensive Economic Report On The Developing Countries Of The Asian Development Bank (Adb). Provides Detailed Analysis And Assessment Of Macro-Economic Trends For 41 Asian And Pacific Economics For 2002, Projections For 2003 And 2004. Provides Broad Diagnosis Of Macroeconomic Conditions, Growth Prospects, Progress In Poverty Reduction. Also Contains A Theme Chapter Addressing The Issue Of Competitiveness.



Asian Development Outlook 2018


Asian Development Outlook 2018
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Author : Asian Development Bank
language : en
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
Release Date : 2018-04-01

Asian Development Outlook 2018 written by Asian Development Bank and has been published by Asian Development Bank this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.


The annual Asian Development Outlook analyzes economic performance in the past year and offers forecasts for the next 2 years for the 45 economies in Asia and the Pacific that make up developing Asia. Growth prospects in the region are upbeat, buoyed by favorable demand at home and abroad. A strong performance in 2017 reflected a surge in exports, which will likely abate this year and next, and rapidly expanding domestic demand. While the outlook is for steady growth, risks to it are decidedly on the downside: Trade friction could weaken recently deepened trade links, tightening US monetary policy could diminish investment in developing Asia, and rising domestic private debt may hamper growth. New technologies drive higher productivity, the foundation for economic growth, better-paid jobs, and poverty reduction. The latest technologies in robotics and artificial intelligence may threaten some jobs, however, and leave less-skilled workers behind. To maximize gains in productivity while safeguarding social welfare, governments in developing Asia should protect workers but not preserve particular jobs. Meanwhile, they should facilitate the countervailing forces in new technologies that generate new jobs. Dealing with the downsides of new technology requires synchronized effort on skills development, labor regulation, social protection, and income redistribution.



Maritime Economics


Maritime Economics
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Author : Alan Branch
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-04-15

Maritime Economics written by Alan Branch and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-15 with Business & Economics categories.


Now in its second edition Maritime Economics provides a valuable introduction to the organisation and workings of the global shipping industry. The author outlines the economic theory as well as many of the operational practicalities involved. Extensively revised for the new edition, the book has many clear illustrations and tables. Topics covered include: * an overview of international trade * Maritime Law * economic organisation and principles * financing ships and shipping companies * market research and forecasting.