Empirical Testing Of Real Options In The Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Market
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Empirical Testing Of Real Options In The Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Market
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Author : Huimin Yao
language : en
Publisher: Open Dissertation Press
Release Date : 2017-01-27
Empirical Testing Of Real Options In The Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Market written by Huimin Yao and has been published by Open Dissertation Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-27 with categories.
This dissertation, "Empirical Testing of Real Options in the Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Market" by Huimin, Yao, 姚惠敏, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Empirical Testing of Real Options in the Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Market Huimin YAO Department of Real Estate and Construction, The University of Hong Kong August 2005 Abstract Hong Kong has been using the leasehold system of land management rather than freehold since its colonial era. This system controlled and presently still controls use of leased land through leasehold conditions. Many leases granted decades ago thus require formal modifications to lease conditions to formalize proposed changes in land use; or to realize the actual present economic value of the land, usually following a land valuation process and payment to government of a "premium" intended to reflect the value of the land in its revised use, usually determined by standard discounted cash flow methodology. From a real options analysis perspective, such land use conversions and analysis of real options associated therewith are significantly more complex than typical stylized land development real options encountered in academic literature and research. There is thus considerable interest in obtaining empirical evidence of the performance of real options valuation in land development applications, where options associated with land development rights are substantially constrained due to regulatory influences. A review of institutional framework in Hong Kong demonstrates that developers essentially own only one type of flexibility in practice that follows typical real options analysis literature, i.e., time flexibility, while other flexibilities are rather constrained due to regulatory influence. The aim of this paper is to outline major factors in operationalizing academic real options research for practical application in a particular land market with significant regulatory constraints, and then test two hypotheses derived from real options literature using actual residential real estate development projects in Hong Kong which require leasehold land use conversions as data. The two hypotheses are: (1) there is a significant and positive difference between the land conversion premium calculated by option pricing theory and the land conversion premium calculated by the authorities (based on DCF principles); and (2) developers are expected to delay the development of land to the point predicted by the real options model. To address these two hypotheses, applied research methodology was adopted and regulatory documentation and case studies were identified to frame the design of the applied work to address institutional complexities, and to facilitate identification of critical lease covenants for real option pricing. The perpetual American call option pricing model was chosen for individual case analysis since multiple time extensions were allowed. It was demonstrated that hypothesis 1 was supported. It was further found that hypothesis 2 was also supported, which means that options were generally optimally exercised. The importance of this research is that it finds empirical support for real options theory in a sample of actual heterogeneous development projects under substantial regulatory constraints and also finds evidence for optimal exercise of real options. From a public policy perspective, these findings imply that the Hong Kong government has systematically undervalued development land in the lease modification cases. DOI: 10.5353/th_b3617334 Subjects: Real
Empirical Testing Of Real Options In The Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Market
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Author : Huimin Yao
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Empirical Testing Of Real Options In The Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Market written by Huimin Yao and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Options (Finance) categories.
Real Options Portfolio Effects And Financial Structure
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Author : Jianfu Shen
language : en
Publisher: Open Dissertation Press
Release Date : 2017-01-26
Real Options Portfolio Effects And Financial Structure written by Jianfu Shen and has been published by Open Dissertation Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-26 with categories.
This dissertation, "Real Options, Portfolio Effects and Financial Structure: Theory and Evidence From Hong Kong Real Estate Companies" by Jianfu, Shen, 沈建富, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: The aim of this research is to investigate corporate behavior, including investment and financing decisions, when corporations face uncertainty and flexibility/inflexibility, and to explore the effects of this behavior on real option valuation. It expands the real options analysis framework into two paths: the first is to add institutional details, portfolio aspects and financial structure into the classical real option model; the other is to extend the real option model into a firm valuation model with corporate investment and financing decisions. Two types of theoretical models are developed. The first set of theoretical models follows the framework of binomial option pricing. Three binomial option pricing models are constructed to represent real estate development in Hong Kong, in which developable land has different flexibility in accordance with covenants in typical land lease contracts. First, the firm may have contractually limited time to complete the development following conversion of urban fringe/agricultural land into commercial/residential land after paying a negotiable "land premium"; second, it may buy land from the market without development time constraints; or thirdly it may buy land at public auction also with contractual development time constraints. The three binomial models deal with the flexibility/inflexibility in these land development circumstances imposed by institutional arrangements. Interaction effects from cost-saving through co-development and potential price increases through agglomeration effects from co-location of multiple options are included in the binomial models. The financial structure of the firm is also seen to influence real option values, because capital structure could imply different capital costs in the exercise of the real options, which is ignored in traditional real option theory. In addition to the traditional factors in financial option pricing models, numerical examples show that interaction effects and capital structure influence real option values and their investment thresholds. The second set of theoretical models aims to value both real flexibility and financial flexibility dynamically and simultaneously. Financial flexibility in the firm, which is seen as an important factor in the capital structure decision, is itself seen as analogous to a real option in project valuation, as the firm can use some debt capacity to invest in the opportunity but still preserve unused capacity for future opportunities. The thesis argues that the firm owns the financial flexibility to adjust its debt through sale of its existing assets or to use these as loan collateral. The firm with more collateralizable assets would have larger debt capacity, use more debt and invest more through the flexible utilization of debt capacity. Two empirical tests are conducted to confirm the findings of the theoretical models, structured into three principal hypotheses: firstly, real option value is not only determined by embedded flexibility, but also by the existing corporate asset structure through interactions and the firm's ability to trade or collateralize its existing assets (properties); second, real option value and real option execution/investment is directly influenced by external financing decisions due to financial frictions and constraints; and thirdly, financial flexibility is expected to increase corpor
Office Construction In Singapore And Hong Kong
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Author : Yuming Fu
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Office Construction In Singapore And Hong Kong written by Yuming Fu and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with categories.
We advance the real-option-based empirical analysis of commercial real estate investment in three respects. First, we test several real option implications for real estate construction that have not been examined in the commercial real estate investment literature. In particular, we show that market volatility makes the effect of real interest rate and the expected demand growth on hurdle rent more negative, as the real option models predict. Second, we use a cointegrating vector of office employment and office stock to provide a better control of the demand for new construction than the traditional indicators based on real estate prices and vacancy rates. Third, whereas the existing studies focus on the U.S. commercial real estate markets, we study two major office markets in Asia, namely Singapore and Hong Kong. We are able to use the stock market prices in these two city states to generate forward-looking measures of office demand growth expectations and volatility.
The Informational Content Of Indirect Real Estate Options
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Author : Na Li
language : en
Publisher: Open Dissertation Press
Release Date : 2017-01-27
The Informational Content Of Indirect Real Estate Options written by Na Li and has been published by Open Dissertation Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-27 with categories.
This dissertation, "The Informational Content of Indirect Real Estate Options: Evidence From Hong Kong" by Na, Li, 李娜, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Abstract of Thesis Titled The Informational Content of Indirect Real Estate Options: Evidence from Hong Kong Submitted by LI Na For the degree of Doctor of Philosophy At The University of Hong Kong in December 2006 There has been ample research on the relationship between the implied volatility of financial options and the realized volatility of the underlying stock. Empirical results on whether or not implied volatility contains information on future realized volatility have been mixed. This study contributes to this area of research by analyzing the informational content of derivative warrants (financial options) of property companies (indirect real estate) in Hong Kong. Previous studies suggested that there is a strong link between the prices of indirect real estate and those of direct real estate. However, there has been no research on the link between the options of indirect real estate and direct real estate. Using a sample of listed companies with a relatively long history of warrants listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, I found that there was no obvious relationship between the implied volatility and the realized volatility of the underlying stock. This is consistent with the results from previous studies. However, with regard to direct real estate, the informational content of implied volatility is different for the two broad categories of indirect real estate, namely investment companies and development companies. Investment companies hold properties for investment purposes. Their major source of revenue is rental income. I found that the implied volatility of the warrant of investment companies contained future information on the volatility of direct real estate. This result is expected, since the financial market is more liquid, and therefore, changes in the economic and political environment (such as interest rate movements and changes in fiscal and economic policies in Hong Kong and Mainland China) that are likely to affect the volatility of rental income will first be reflected in the warrant market. The results are, however, different for development companies. I found that the implied volatility of development companies contains information about the historical volatility of direct real estate. That is, the warrants of property development companies are priced based on historical volatility in the direct real estate market, which is a less liquid market. This apparently counterintuitive result can be explained by property development risk and the uncertainties that developers have to face than pricing presale housing units. The property developer has to bear the development risk in addition to fluctuations in property prices. The sources of development risks come mainly from the uncertainty in obtaining approvals from various government departments. Furthermore, in many cases, there is also uncertainty involved in negotiations with different stakeholders and pressure groups. Development risk may also vary according to the nature and timing of a development project. In essence, development risks are unique, and therefore, historical events have little predictive power. On the other hand, when developers sell their units in the presale market, they often face the problem of setting the right presale price that optimizes total profit. In the price searching process,
Markets At Work
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Author : Bertrand Renaud
language : en
Publisher: Hong Kong University Press
Release Date : 1997-07-28
Markets At Work written by Bertrand Renaud and has been published by Hong Kong University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-07-28 with Business & Economics categories.
'The real estate economy of Hong Kong is one of the most dynamic and sophisticated in the world, and has contributed greatly to the spectacular development of this vibrant city. More importantly, at a time of rapid globalization of the world economy, it is possibly the best model of the behaviour of an advanced real estate industry operating in an open economy. Hong Kong is thereforeof interest to analysts and policymakers everywhere, not least because of Hong Kong's political reintegration with China in 1997. With this in mind, the authors have managed to capture the key economic features of the private residential real estate market in Hong Kong in this compact volume. They have identified and highlighted critical institutions that contribute to the success and economic factors which shape the dynamics of all sectors of the real estate industry in Hong Kong. This book is essential reading for market analysts, policymakers, students and international readers with an interest in comparative analysis of real estate markets and institutions.' Professor Anthony Walker, Centre for Real Estate and Urban Economics,The University of Hong Kong.
The Uncertainty Of House Prices And Real Options In China
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Author : Konstantinos P. Vergos
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
The Uncertainty Of House Prices And Real Options In China written by Konstantinos P. Vergos and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
This study investigates the real options with spatial analysis in China's real estate markets. We employ new detailed macro-level data set for 31 provinces in China to test the central predictions of real options with respect to land development. We extended the real options method with spatial Durbin model (SDM), making this the first time that real option predictions have been tested in a spatial manner. We also examine the tests of SDM including spatial fixed measures, time fixed measures, and spatial and time fixed measures of expected future prices and price uncertainty. This method improves the accuracy of predicting the value of house prices and considers the neighbouring regional house prices. We measure the degree of price uncertainty by a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. To explore for the presence of real options in house prices, vacant land sales price is regressed on SDM measures of future house price uncertainty. Moreover, we employed Black-Scholes' (1973) pricing model to explore the option premium of land value. The weight of the evidence in this paper suggests there are real options in China's real estate markets. Uncertainty about future house prices of neighbouring regions drives up land prices in China. The findings suggested that uncertainty about future housing prices of neighbouring regions decreases investment activity in the current period; uncertainty about future house prices of neighbouring regions raises land prices above the discounted stream of rents in their current use.Market house prices of neighbouring regions reflect a premium for optimal development, which based on our estimates has a mean of 16.28% of the land value. A one-standard-deviation increase in uncertainty lowers the likelihood of development by 1.101%.
Determinants Of Property Prices In Hong Kong Sar
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Author : Mr.R. Sean Craig
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-11-01
Determinants Of Property Prices In Hong Kong Sar written by Mr.R. Sean Craig and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper uses an econometric model of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR to assess the effectiveness of alternative policies in slowing the increase in property prices. The rapid rise in property prices is well explained by macroconomic fundamentals; real GDP per capital, real domestic credit, construction costs, land supply, and the real interest rate. Policy can influence the property market though land supply and prudential and tax policy, with the latter policies taking the form of a stamp duty on property transactions and a tighter loan-to-value ratio (LTV) on lending. Land supply is the most effective policy insturment for restraining property price increases but it operates with a significant lag. The LTV and stamp duty dampen speculative activity that drives up property prices. While these policies can slow the increase in the short run, they should be guided by their long run objectives of financial stability and counteracting speculation.
Price Volume Relationship In H
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Author : Man-Suen Ho
language : en
Publisher: Open Dissertation Press
Release Date : 2017-01-27
Price Volume Relationship In H written by Man-Suen Ho and has been published by Open Dissertation Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-27 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This dissertation, "The Price-volume Relationship in Hong Kong's Residential Market" by Man-suen, Ho, 何敏璇, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Abstract of Thesis Titled The Price-Volume Relationship in Hong Kong's Residential Market Submitted by Ho Man Suen For the degree of Doctor of Philosophy At The University of Hong Kong in August 2004 This thesis examines the relationship between transaction price and transaction volume in Hong Kong's residential market. The rational expectation hypothesis suggests that there should be no relationship between price and volume in the capital market. However, there is sufficient empirical evidence to suggest otherwise, particularly in the more developed real estate market. Both positive contemporaneous and lead-lag relationships have been reported. Nevertheless, these relationships were observed using dubious data, such as valuation-based real estate price indices, over a relatively short time horizon. This thesis investigates the nature of the price-volume relationship using a high frequency repeat sales index over a relatively long time horizon. Hong Kong's residential market, which is dominated by high-rise apartments, is sufficiently active for us to construct a monthly residential price index over a 33-year period from 1970 to 2003. This index is sufficiently long and also of a very high frequency for us to examine the nature of the price-volume relationship in the residential market and test alternative theories under different test conditions. There are three main theories that explain the price-volume relationship. They are the Rational Expectation Theory, the Information Asymmetric Theory, and the Market Imperfection Theory. Each theory implies a different price-volume relationship. The Rational Expectation Theory suggests that there should be no relationship between price and volume. The Information Asymmetric Theory recognizes investors' heterogeneity. The better-informed group takes advantage of the others and initiates trading activities before major price changes occur. The Market Imperfection Theory implies that price leads volume due mainly to down payment constraints. These theories are not mutually exclusive, since the test conditions were different. The residential market in Hong Kong has undergone a number of major changes that has led to the prevalence of different test conditions. This study makes use of these changes and tests alternative theories under different test conditions. Before 1984, the residential market in Hong Kong had yet to develop, and information costs were high. All market participants were equally informed and uninformed. Prices could then reflect the limited information from the property market instantly. The price-volume relationship should be consistent with the Rational Expectation Theory. Negotiations between the British and Chinese Governments over the tenure of land in Hong Kong started in 1982, and were settled with the signing of the Joint Sino-British Agreement in 1984. Many people were then not confident in the future of Hong Kong and decided to sell their homes in Hong Kong before migrating to other countries. This led to a panic selling of residential units, but at the same time also attracted more rational traders who took advantage of it. They analyzed market information and bought and sold undervalued residential units to make short term profits. A group of professional speculators who are more informed than the average end users/owners emerged, and this led to information asymmetry. Information asymmetry implies that transac
Real Options Portfolio Effects And Financial Structure
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Author : 沈建富
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Real Options Portfolio Effects And Financial Structure written by 沈建富 and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with Real estate business categories.