Energy Modeling For An Uncertain Future

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Energy Modeling For An Uncertain Future

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Author : National Research Council (U.S.). Modeling Resource Group Synthesis Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1978

Energy Modeling For An Uncertain Future written by National Research Council (U.S.). Modeling Resource Group Synthesis Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1978 with Energy policy categories.

Energy Modeling For An Uncertain Future

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Author : National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems. Synthesis Panel. Modeling Resource Group
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1978

Energy Modeling For An Uncertain Future written by National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems. Synthesis Panel. Modeling Resource Group and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1978 with Political Science categories.

Energy Modeling For An Uncertain Future

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Author : National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems. Synthesis Panel. Modeling Resource Group
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1978

Energy Modeling For An Uncertain Future written by National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems. Synthesis Panel. Modeling Resource Group and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1978 with Political Science categories.

Addressing An Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

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Author : Chris Marnay
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006

Addressing An Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis written by Chris Marnay and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.

The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in nature, such as the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the source of the influential Annual Energy Outlook whose business-as-usual (BAU) case, the Reference Case, forms the baseline for most of the U.S. energy policy discussion. NEMS is an optimizing model because: 1. it iterates to an equilibrium among modules representing the supply, demand, and energy conversion subsectors; and 2. several subsectoral models are individually solved using linear programs (LP). Consequently, it is deeply rooted in the recent past and any effort to simulate the consequences of a major regime shift as depicted in Figure 1 must come by applying an exogenously specified scenario. And, more generally, simulating futures that lie outside of our recent historic experience, even if they do not include regime switches suggest some form of scenario approach. At the same time, the statistical validity of scenarios that deviate significantly outside the ranges of historic inputs should be questioned.

The Role Of Energy Models

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Author : Tara Kathleen Righetti
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017

The Role Of Energy Models written by Tara Kathleen Righetti and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.

When designing environmental protection and energy regulation policies, legislators and regulators rely upon the results of computer models that purport to forecast future conditions such as energy supply, demand, available technologies and market characteristics. In a perfect world, these energy models would prove to be reliable and would, in turn, yield projections that would enable legislators and regulators to confidently enact regulations that advance societal energy and environmental goals. Unfortunately, it is impossible to predict or forecast with confidence all the variables that influence regulation and the effects of any regulatory choice. In this Article, we suggest that principles of dynamic law can be used as guidance to design policy that is coherent with the highly uncertain context in which it operates. We explore the idea that the uncertainty surrounding the outcomes of a regulation can be taken into account and made part of the regulatory design. In so doing, we suggest that regulations can tackle uncertainty using the same methods by which the energy modeling community attempts to understand and bound uncertainty. The diverse set of projected regulatory effects produced by different models under different assumptions reveals risks and opportunities: The risk of ineffective regulation and unintended consequences; and the opportunity of making “dynamic regulations” that change with the pace of new information.

Energy An Uncertain Future

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Author : Herman T. Franssen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1978

Energy An Uncertain Future written by Herman T. Franssen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1978 with Economic forecasting categories.

Pp. 1.

Energy In America S Future

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Author : Sam H. Schurr
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-10-18

Energy In America S Future written by Sam H. Schurr and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-18 with Business & Economics categories.

Results of a comprehensive two-year study analyzing the facts and policy alternatives. Originally published in 1979.

The National Energy Modeling System

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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 1992-02-01

The National Energy Modeling System written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992-02-01 with Science categories.

This book addresses the process and actions for developing enhanced capabilities to analyze energy policy issues and perform strategic planning activities at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) on an ongoing basis. Within the broader context of useful analytical and modeling capabilities within and outside the DOE, this volume examines the requirements that a National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) should fulfill, presents an overall architecture for a NEMS, identifies data needs, and outlines priority actions for timely implementation of the system.

Energy Modelling And The Management Of Uncertainty

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Author : Risk Books Staff
language : en
Publisher: Risk Books
Release Date : 1999-01-01

Energy Modelling And The Management Of Uncertainty written by Risk Books Staff and has been published by Risk Books this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-01-01 with Electric power categories.

This text contains a detailed analysis of the most difficult problems in pricing electricity, including: price modelling, derivative valuation, feedstock correlations, and weather risk. The book also relates key modelling difficulties to practical strategies for risk management.

Validation And Assessment Of Energy Models

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Author : Saul I. Gass
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1981

Validation And Assessment Of Energy Models written by Saul I. Gass and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1981 with Energy policy categories.