Essays In The Face Of Uncertainies
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Liberation In The Face Of Uncertainty
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Author : Hubert J. M. Hermans
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2022-01-13
Liberation In The Face Of Uncertainty written by Hubert J. M. Hermans and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-01-13 with Psychology categories.
This book uses Dialogical Self Theory to respond to the challenges of climate change, well-being, and disenchantment of the world.
Essays In The Economics Of Uncertainty
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Author : Jean-Jacques Laffont
language : en
Publisher: Harvard University Press
Release Date : 1980
Essays In The Economics Of Uncertainty written by Jean-Jacques Laffont and has been published by Harvard University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1980 with Business & Economics categories.
These three elegant essays develop principles central to the understanding of the diverse ways in which imperfect information affects the distribution of resources, incentives, and the evaluation of economic policy. The first concerns the special role that information plays in the allocation process when it is possible to improve accuracy through private investment. The common practice of hiring "experts" whose information is presumably much better than their clients' is analyzed. Issues of cooperative behavior when potential group members possess diverse pieces of information are addressed. Emphasis is placed on the adaptation of the "core" concept from game theory to the resource allocation model with differential information. The second essay deals with the extent to which agents can influence the random events they face. This is known as moral hazard, and in its presence there is a potential inefficiency in the economic system. Two special models are studied: the role of moral hazard in a monetary economy, and the role of an outside adjudicatory agency that has the power to enforce fines and compensation. The final essay discusses the problem of certainty equivalence in economic policy. Conditions under which a full stochastic optimization can be calculated by solving a related, much simpler "certainty equivalence" problem are developed. The reduction in the complexity of calculation involved is very great compared with the potential loss of efficiency.
Essays On Risk And Uncertainty In Economics And Finance
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Author : Jorge Mario Uribe Gil
language : en
Publisher: Ed. Universidad de Cantabria
Release Date : 2022-11-22
Essays On Risk And Uncertainty In Economics And Finance written by Jorge Mario Uribe Gil and has been published by Ed. Universidad de Cantabria this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-11-22 with Business & Economics categories.
This book adds to the resolution of two problems in finance and economics: i) what is macro-financial uncertainty? : How to measure it? How is it different from risk? How important is it for the financial markets? And ii) what sort of asymmetries underlie financial risk and uncertainty propagation across the global financial markets? That is, how risk and uncertainty change according to factors such as market states or market participants. In Chapter 2, which is entitled “Momentum Uncertainties”, the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and the abnormal returns of a momentum trading strategy in the stock market is studies. We show that high levels of uncertainty in the economy impact negatively and significantly the returns of a portfolio of stocks that consist of buying past winners and selling past losers. High uncertainty reduces below zero the abnormal returns of momentum, extinguishes the Sharpe ratio of the momentum strategy, while increases the probability of momentum crashes both by increasing the skewness and the kurtosis of the momentum return distribution. Uncertainty acts as an economic regime that underlies abrupt changes over time of the returns generated by momentum strategies. In Chapter 3, “Measuring Uncertainty in the Stock Market”, a new index for measuring stock market uncertainty on a daily basis is proposed. The index considers the inherent differentiation between uncertainty and the common variations between the series. The second contribution of chapter 3 is to show how this financial uncertainty index can also serve as an indicator of macroeconomic uncertainty. Finally, the dynamic relationship between uncertainty and the series of consumption, interest rates, production and stock market prices, among others, is analized. In chapter 4: “Uncertainty, Systemic Shocks and the Global Banking Sector: Has the Crisis Modified their Relationship?” we explore the stability of systemic risk and uncertainty propagation among financial institutions in the global economy, and show that it has remained stable over the last decade. Additionally, a new simple tool for measuring the resilience of financial institutions to these systemic shocks is provided. We examine the characteristics and stability of systemic risk and uncertainty, in relation to the dynamics of the banking sector stock returns. This sort of evidence is supportive of past claims, made in the field of macroeconomics, which hold that during the global financial crisis the financial system may have faced stronger versions of traditional shocks rather than a new type of shock. In chapter 5, “Currency downside risk, liquidity, and financial stability”, downside risk propagation across global currency markets and the ways in which it is related to liquidity is analyzed. Two primary contributions to the literature follow. First, tail-spillovers between currencies in the global FX market are estimated. This index is easy to build and does not require intraday data, which constitutes an important advantage. Second, we show that turnover is related to risk spillovers in global currency markets. Chapter 6 is entitled “Spillovers from the United States to Latin American and G7 Stock Markets: A VAR-Quantile Analysis”. This chapter contributes to the studies of contagion, market integration and cross-border spillovers during both regular and crisis episodes by carrying out a multivariate quantile analysis. It focuses on Latin American stock markets, which have been characterized by a highly positive dynamic in recent decades, in terms of market capitalization and liquidity ratios, after a far-reaching process of market liberalization and reforms to pension funds across the continent during the 80s and 90s. We document smaller dependences between the LA markets and the US market than those between the US and the developed economies, especially in the highest and lowest quantiles.
Essays On Economic Decisions Under Uncertainty
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Author : Jacques Drèze
language : en
Publisher: CUP Archive
Release Date : 1990-05-25
Essays On Economic Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Jacques Drèze and has been published by CUP Archive this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990-05-25 with Business & Economics categories.
Professor Dreze is a highly respected mathematical economist and econometrician. This book brings together some of his major contributions to the economic theory of decision making under uncertainty, and also several essays. These include an important essay on 'Decision theory under moral hazard and state dependent preferences' that significantly extends modern theory, and which provides rigorous foundations for subsequent chapters. Topics covered within the theory include decision theory, market allocation and prices, consumer decisions, theory of the firm, labour contracts, and public decisions.
Economic Uncertainty Instabilities And Asset Bubbles Selected Essays
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Author : Anastasios G Malliaris
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2005-10-03
Economic Uncertainty Instabilities And Asset Bubbles Selected Essays written by Anastasios G Malliaris and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-10-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The compendium of papers in this volume focuses on aspects of economic uncertainty, financial instabilities and asset bubbles.Economic uncertainty is modeled in continuous time using the mathematical techniques of stochastic calculus. A detailed treatment of important topics is provided, including the existence and uniqueness of asymptotic economic growth, the modeling of inflation and interest rates, the decomposition of inflation and its volatility, and the extension of the quantity theory of money to allow for randomness.The reader is also introduced to the methods of chaotic dynamics, and this methodology is applied to asset pricing, the European equity markets, and the multi-fractality in foreign currency markets.Since the techniques of stochastic calculus and chaotic dynamics do not readily accommodate the presence of stochastic bubbles, several papers discuss in depth the presence of financial bubbles in asset prices, and econometric work is performed to link such bubbles to monetary policy.Finally, since bubbles often burst rather than deflate slowly, the last section of the book studies the crash of October 1987 as well as other crashes of national equity markets due to the Persian gulf crisis.
Social And Economic Factors In Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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Author : Kinga Posadzy
language : en
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
Release Date : 2017-11-16
Social And Economic Factors In Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Kinga Posadzy and has been published by Linköping University Electronic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-16 with categories.
The objective of this thesis is to improve the understanding of human behavior that goes beyond monetary rewards. In particular, it investigates social influences in individual’s decision making in situations that involve coordination, competition, and deciding for others. Further, it compares how monetary and social outcomes are perceived. The common theme of all studies is uncertainty. The first four essays study individual decisions that have uncertain consequences, be it due to the actions of others or chance. The last essay, in turn, uses the advances in research on decision making under uncertainty to predict behavior in riskless choices. The first essay, Fairness Versus Efficiency: How Procedural Fairness Concerns Affect Coordination, investigates whether preferences for fair rules undermine the efficiency of coordination mechanisms that put some individuals at a disadvantage. The results from a laboratory experiment show that the existence of coordination mechanisms, such as action recommendations, increases efficiency, even if one party is strongly disadvantaged by the mechanism. Further, it is demonstrated that while individuals’ behavior does not depend on the fairness of the coordination mechanism, their beliefs about people’s behavior do. The second essay, Dishonesty and Competition. Evidence from a stiff competition environment, explores whether and how the possibility to behave dishonestly affects the willingness to compete and who the winner is in a competition between similarly skilled individuals. We do not find differences in competition entry between competitions in which dishonesty is possible and in which it is not. However, we find that due to the heterogeneity in propensity to behave dishonestly, around 20% of winners are not the best-performing individuals. This implies that the efficient allocation of resources cannot be ensured in a stiff competition in which behavior is unmonitored. The third essay, Tracing Risky Decision Making for Oneself and Others: The Role of Intuition and Deliberation, explores how individuals make choices under risk for themselves and on behalf of other people. The findings demonstrate that while there are no differences in preferences for taking risks when deciding for oneself and for others, individuals have greater decision error when choosing for other individuals. The differences in the decision error can be partly attributed to the differences in information processing; individuals employ more deliberative cognitive processing when deciding for themselves than when deciding for others. Conducting more information processing when deciding for others is related to the reduction in decision error. The fourth essay, The Effect of Decision Fatigue on Surgeons’ Clinical Decision Making, investigates how mental depletion, caused by a long session of decision making, affects surgeon’s decision to operate. Exploiting a natural experiment, we find that surgeons are less likely to schedule an operation for patients who have appointment late during the work shift than for patients who have appointment at the beginning of the work shift. Understanding how the quality of medical decisions depends on when the patient is seen is important for achieving both efficiency and fairness in health care, where long shifts are popular. The fifth essay, Preferences for Outcome Editing in Monetary and Social Contexts, compares whether individuals use the same rules for mental representation of monetary outcomes (e.g., purchases, expenses) as for social outcomes (e.g., having nice time with friends). Outcome editing is an operation in mental accounting that determines whether individuals prefer to first combine multiple outcomes before their evaluation (integration) or evaluate each outcome separately (segregation). I find that the majority of individuals express different preferences for outcome editing in the monetary context than in the social context. Further, while the results on the editing of monetary outcomes are consistent with theoretical predictions, no existing model can explain the editing of social outcomes.
Uncertainty
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Author : Patrik Aspers
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2024
Uncertainty written by Patrik Aspers and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024 with Business & Economics categories.
In Uncertainty, Patrik Aspers provides detailed analysis of publicly available means of uncertainty reduction. Examining what people can and in fact do to reduce uncertainty, Aspers addresses the existential dimension of uncertainty, the collective efforts and socially produced outcomes that lead to reduced uncertainty, and the social order that results.
Employee Uncertainty Over Digital Transformation
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Author : Masaki Matsunaga
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2024-02-02
Employee Uncertainty Over Digital Transformation written by Masaki Matsunaga and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-02-02 with Business & Economics categories.
This book delves into the psychological and behavioral impact of the advent of digital transformation (DX) on white-collar employees in the modern organizational context. It uncovers how DX-driven uncertainty affects these workers' professional identity, self-efficacy, and job performance from a communication-centered perfective. While effective leadership can serve as a buffer, the intricate dynamics of these relationships await further exploration. To unravel these complex issues, the book employs an array of theoretical frameworks that have been tested against large, time-separated, dyadic datasets collected in Japan. In so doing, the studies introduced in this book illuminate how employees make sense of and communicate the uncertainties they face. Furthermore, it highlights a vision-driven leadership style and scrutinizes its unique attributes and limitations for addressing team members' uncertainty. This book is indispensable for executives and managers; it is a roadmap to steering digital transformation efforts without igniting resistance or conflict among frontline staff. For researchers, it's an invaluable resource for analyzing the mechanism of uncertainty management in today's fast-paced, tech-centric environments. Moreover, the book bridges the gap between interpersonal communication studies and other pivotal disciplines, such as leadership, management, organizational behavior, and social psychology in the context of stress and coping with uncertainty.
Uncertainty And Communication
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Author : Colin B. Grant
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2007-07-25
Uncertainty And Communication written by Colin B. Grant and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-07-25 with Social Science categories.
Sharing a commitment to the theory of communication to Habermas' Theory of Communicative Action , Grant here issues a range of challenges to it. He critiques theories of dialogism and intersubjectivity, proposes a rethinking of the communicating subject in society and explores the new contingencies of culture and media in today's world.
Essays In The Theory Of Society
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Author : Ralf Dahrendorf
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2022-01-12
Essays In The Theory Of Society written by Ralf Dahrendorf and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-01-12 with Social Science categories.
Originally published in 1968, these ten essays by one of Europe’s leading sociological theorists deal with important issues on the borderline between sociology and social philosophy and demonstrate the author’s deep insight into history and political analysis. The author maintains that the structures of power in which the political process takes place not only originate change and give it direction, but also produce the fertile conflicts that give expression to the fundamental uncertainty of human existence. Through an examination of various concepts inherent in this dynamic process – power, resistance, conflict, change, freedom, uncertainty – a coherent theory of society emerges.