Essays On Financial And Economic Risks
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Essays On Financial And Economic Risks
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Author : Tengdong Liu
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Essays On Financial And Economic Risks written by Tengdong Liu and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Economics categories.
This dissertation consists of three essays on financial economics, focusing on different types of financial and economic risks and covering different geographical regions. These risk types are related to stock, bond and commodity markets, financial stress and country risk ratings. The first essay investigates directional relationships, regime variances, transition probabilities and expected regime durations for two systems of economic and financial variables. The first system consists of daily series which include credit and market risks. The second system is based on monthly data, and encompasses credit, and market risks and economic activity and oil variables. The methodology is based on the Markov-Switching cointegrated VAR model. The results suggest there is a pronounced regime-specific behavior in both systems with FTP-MS model. There is a significant difference between the higher expected duration in the low volatility regime and the lower duration in the high volatility regime in both systems. Both models suggest that during the 2007/2008 Great Recession, the system stays mainly in regime 2 but returns to the normality state in the 2009 recovery period. The fundamental variables (industrial production, oil prices and the real interest rate) have varying effects in both regimes and both systems. Quantitative easing has significant effects on the bond expected volatility index MOVE in the high volatility regime and industrial production in both regimes. I also examine the driving forces of the time-varying transition probabilities and find that increases of oil price will decrease the probability that the financial markets stay in the low volatility regime. The second essay examines the asymmetric adjustments of the stock markets of the five BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) to changes in the economic, financial and political country risk ratings of these countries in the short run and long run, using the momentum threshold autoregression (MTAR) and the vector error-correction(VEC) models. The findings suggest that the long-run relationships between these four variables respond asymmetrically depending on the direction of the shocks. The adjustment is faster when the spread between the actual level of stock market index and the level suggested by country risk ratings is narrowing than when it is widening, except for Russia which has the opposite response. The Chinese stock market seems to have the fastest adjustments in the short-and long-run among those of the five BRICS. In terms of the three country risk ratings the financial risk ratings for the five BRICS show the most responsiveness to all the variables in the long-run, while the political risk ratings exhibit the least. The economic and political risk ratings show the fastest adjustments for Brazil, while the financial risk rating is most pronounced in Russia. The third essay examines the Value-at-Risk for ten euro-zone equity markets individually and when divided into two groups: PIIGS and the Core, employing four VaR estimation methods. The results are evaluated according to four statistical properties as well as the Basel capital requirements for the period including the 2007/2008 financial crisis. The estimation and the evaluation are applied to the individual assets as well as to the portfolios consisting of the two groups. The results demonstrate that the CEVT method applied to the ten individual equity assets meet all the statistical criteria the best. The two optimal equity portfolios do not show diversification benefits as the PIIGS portfolio selects Spain's IBEX only and that of the Core opts for Austria's ATX only. The asset class-augmented portfolio that includes the Austrian (ATX) index, oil and gold gives the highest diversification gains. Adding other commodities such as corn and silver, or commodities indices to the augmented portfolio does not enhance the gains. At the optimal portfolio level, the Duration-Peak-Over-the-Threshold (DPOT) is recommended the best in terms of satisfying the Basel rules.
Essays In Financial Economics
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Author : Rita Biswas
language : en
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Release Date : 2019-10-24
Essays In Financial Economics written by Rita Biswas and has been published by Emerald Group Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-10-24 with Business & Economics categories.
This volume, dedicated to John W. Kensinger, explores a variety of topics in financial economics, including firm growth, investment risks, and the profitability of the banking industry. With its global perspective, Essays in Financial Economics is a valuable addition to the bookshelf of any researcher in finance.
Three Essays On Economic And Financial Risks In Different Asset Classes And Diverse Regions
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Author : Soodabeh Sarafrazi
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Three Essays On Economic And Financial Risks In Different Asset Classes And Diverse Regions written by Soodabeh Sarafrazi and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with Economics categories.
My dissertation is titled "Economic and Financial Risks in Different Asset Classes and Different Regions," which encompasses three essays on economic activity and financial risks for the United States, interactions between Islamic and conventional stock markets, and downside risks and optimal diversified equity, bond and commodity portfolios for the PIIGs and CORE of the eurozone. The dissertation investigates migration and cascading of the different kinds of risks in the respected financial markets or regions in an economic policy uncertainty and financial stress environment.
Managing Global Money
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Author : Graham Bird
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 1988-05-24
Managing Global Money written by Graham Bird and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988-05-24 with Business & Economics categories.
This collection of articles and papers has been organised under a limited number of specific themes in international financial economics, including balance of payment theory and policy, the activities of the IMF, Special Drawing Rights, the role of the private financial markets, and the international economic order. A unifying theme running through all the essays is that some degree of management of international financial affairs is desirable. The book has a strong policy orientation and should be of interest to students and practitioners of international financial economics alike.
Essays In Derivatives
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Author : Don M. Chance
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2011-07-05
Essays In Derivatives written by Don M. Chance and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-07-05 with Business & Economics categories.
In the updated second edition of Don Chance’s well-received Essays in Derivatives, the author once again keeps derivatives simple enough for the beginner, but offers enough in-depth information to satisfy even the most experienced investor. This book provides up-to-date and detailed coverage of various financial products related to derivatives and contains completely new chapters covering subjects that include why derivatives are used, forward and futures pricing, operational risk, and best practices.
Essays On Global Economic Risk
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Author : Jonathan William Welburn
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Essays On Global Economic Risk written by Jonathan William Welburn and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
Recent economic crises (the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 1998 Russian crisis, the 2007 global financial crisis, and the 2009 Eurozone crisis) have created a new landscape. These crises elucidate the systemic nature of economic risk, where adverse events appear capable of quickly spreading from one country to the next through a process commonly known as contagion. This dissertation uses an interdisciplinary approach that bridges the fields of operations research, economics, and risk analysis to contribute a novel approach for understanding the processes by which contagion can occur. First, we present a large game-theoretic framework to explain how the dynamics between households, firms, banks, central banks, countries, and financial intergovernmental organizations contribute to crises. Second, we present a more parsimonious model, a borrower-lender game with sequential moves and imperfect information, to discuss the potential for contagion through debt and trade channels while highlighting the role of beliefs. While many in the literature focus on contagion as a direct transmission of economic shocks through debt and trade channels, we find that contagion through trade is unlikely and that the role of lender beliefs can result in apparent contagion. We demonstrate that changes in lender beliefs following revelations of a crisis in one country may lead a lender to be unwilling to lend to another country. This in turn may create a self-fulfilling prophecy where, without access to credit, that country may be less willing and able to repay past debts. Furthermore, we find that our borrower-lender game can explain apparent contagion throughout the Eurozone crisis through deteriorating lender beliefs. While the conventional story is that contagion leads to real propagations through debt (or trade), we find that a real propagation of shocks is not needed.
Essays On Financial Analytics
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Author : Pascal Alphonse
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date :
Essays On Financial Analytics written by Pascal Alphonse and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with categories.
The Equity Risk Premium
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Author : William N. Goetzmann
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2006-11-16
The Equity Risk Premium written by William N. Goetzmann and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-11-16 with Business & Economics categories.
This book aims to create a strong understanding of the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the research and anaylsis of two scholars who are experts in this field, this volume presents the key issues that are paramount to investors, including whether or not to use historical data as a method of equity investing, and can the equity premium reflect changes in fundamental values and cash flows of the market.
Essays On Risk And Uncertainty In Economics And Finance
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Author : Jorge Mario Uribe Gil
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Essays On Risk And Uncertainty In Economics And Finance written by Jorge Mario Uribe Gil and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
This thesis adds to the resolution of two problems in finance and economics: i) what is macro-financial uncertainty? : How to measure it? How is it different from risk? How important is it for the financial markets? And ii) what sort of asymmetries underlie financial risk and uncertainty propagation across the global financial markets? That is, how risk and uncertainty change according to factors such as market states or market participants. In Chapter 2, which is entitled "Momentum Uncertainties", I study the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and the abnormal returns of a momentum trading strategy in the stock market. I show that high levels of uncertainty in the economy impact negatively and significantly the returns of a portfolio of stocks that consist of buying past winners and selling past losers. High uncertainty reduces below zero the abnormal returns of momentum, extinguishes the Sharpe ratio of the momentum strategy, while increases the probability of momentum crashes both by increasing the skewness and the kurtosis of the momentum return distribution. Uncertainty acts as an economic regime that underlies abrupt changes over time of the returns generated by momentum strategies. In Chapter 3, "Measuring Uncertainty in the Stock Market", I propose a new index for measuring stock market uncertainty on a daily basis. The index considers the inherent differentiation between uncertainty and the common variations between the series. The second contribution of chapter 3 is to show how this financial uncertainty index can also serve as an indicator of macroeconomic uncertainty. Finally, I analyze the dynamic relationship between uncertainty and the series of consumption, interest rates, production and stock market prices, among others. In chapter 4: "Uncertainty, Systemic Shocks and the Global Banking Sector: Has the Crisis Modified their Relationship?", I explore the stability of systemic risk and uncertainty propagation among financial institutions in the global economy, and show that it has remained stable over the last decade. Additionally, I provide a new simple tool for measuring the resilience of financial institutions to these systemic shocks. My contribution to the literature in this essay is mainly the examination of the characteristics and stability of systemic risk and uncertainty, in relation to the dynamics of the banking sector stock returns. This sort of evidence is new to the literature and is supportive of past claims, made in the field of macroeconomics, which hold that during the global financial crisis the financial system may have faced stronger versions of traditional shocks rather than a new type of shock. In chapter 5, "Currency downside risk, liquidity, and financial stability", I analyze downside risk propagation across global currency markets and the ways in which it is related to liquidity. I make two primary contributions to the literature. First, I estimate tail-spillovers between currencies in the global FX market. This index is easy to build and does not require intraday data, which constitutes an important advantage. Second, I show that turnover is related to risk spillovers in global currency markets. Chapter 6 is entitled "Spillovers from the United States to Latin American and G7 Stock Markets: A VAR-Quantile Analysis". This essay contributes to the studies of contagion, market integration and cross-border spillovers during both regular and crisis episodes by carrying out a multivariate quantile analysis. I focus the analysis carried out in this chapter on Latin American stock markets, which have been characterized by a highly positive dynamic in recent decades, in terms of market capitalization and liquidity ratios, after a far-reaching process of market liberalization and reforms to pension funds across the continent during the 80s and 90s. I documented smaller dependences between the LA markets and the US market than those between the US and the developed economies, especially in the highest and lowest quantiles. -- TDX.
Theory And Reality In Financial Economics
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Author : George M. Frankfurter
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2007
Theory And Reality In Financial Economics written by George M. Frankfurter and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Business & Economics categories.
A collection of essays dealing with financial markets' imperfections, and the inability of neoclassical economics to deal with such imperfections. This book argues that financial economics, as based on the tenets of neoclassical economics, cannot answer or solve the real-life problems that people face.