Essays On Mechanisms Underlying Belief Updating With Applications In Wisdom Of Crowds
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Essays On Mechanisms Underlying Belief Updating With Applications In Wisdom Of Crowds
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Author : Yunhao Zhang
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2023
Essays On Mechanisms Underlying Belief Updating With Applications In Wisdom Of Crowds written by Yunhao Zhang and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023 with categories.
This dissertation consists of three chapters on understanding how people update their beliefs after learning about others' opinions and how we can leverage belief-updating to improve Wisdom of Crowds. In Chapter One, I propose a new Revealed Expertise (RE) algorithm that uses the "RE measure", which is a scaled amount of belief updating given numerical advice (i.e., the group mean), as a proxy for prior variance to better reflect the relative expertise of each agent in a crowd. The intuition, which I confirm both theoretically and empirically, is that those who are less swayed by the group mean tend to be more accurate in their initial judgment. Therefore, using inverse-variance weighting with the RE measures as the variance inputs outperforms the existing wisdom-of-crowds methods by over-weighting the more accurate initial judgments in the aggregation. Crucially, I demonstrate that while self-reported confidence reflects one's feeling of uncertainty given one's available information, advice-taking reveals the amount of information one has and has not taken into account in their initial judgment. Therefore, the RE algorithm is able to successfully identify the experts, even when self-reported confidence fails. In Chapter Two, I develop a boundedly rational model to characterize the relationship among stated confidence, uncertainty, expertise, and advice-taking. The semi-Bayesian belief-updating model I develop is able to reconcile two important empirical phenomena. First, I demonstrate that even though agents can state a high confidence (i.e., low first-order uncertainty), they may put a large weight on the advice in belief-updating if their estimate of their stated confidence is imprecise (i.e., large second-order uncertainty due to their lack of information). Second, I show that the distance effect (i.e., the weight on advice tends to decrease as the distance between the initial estimate and the advice increases), a widely documented empirical pattern in advice-taking, can be a consequence of people updating their beliefs following a semi-Bayesian updating heuristics given their cognitive limitation. In Chapter Three, I propose an experimental paradigm to examine the role of (preference-based) motivated reasoning in biased advice-taking. In an incentivized task assessing the accuracy of nonpolitical news headlines, we find partisan bias in advice-taking. We then adjudicate between two possible mechanisms for this biased advice-taking: a preference-based account, where participants 3 are motivated to take less advice from counter-partisans because doing so is unpleasant; versus a belief-based account, where participants sincerely believe co-partisans are more competent at the task (even though this belief is incorrect). To do so, we examine the impact of a substantial increase in the stakes, which should increase accuracy motivations (and thereby reduce the relative impact of partisan motivations). We find that increasing the stakes does not reduce biased advice-taking, hence no evidence to support the bias is driven by preference. Instead, in two follow-up experiments, we show evidence of the belief-based account being the main driver of the biased advice-taking.
The Psychology Of Fake News
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Author : Rainer Greifeneder
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2020-08-13
The Psychology Of Fake News written by Rainer Greifeneder and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-08-13 with Language Arts & Disciplines categories.
This volume examines the phenomenon of fake news by bringing together leading experts from different fields within psychology and related areas, and explores what has become a prominent feature of public discourse since the first Brexit referendum and the 2016 US election campaign. Dealing with misinformation is important in many areas of daily life, including politics, the marketplace, health communication, journalism, education, and science. In a general climate where facts and misinformation blur, and are intentionally blurred, this book asks what determines whether people accept and share (mis)information, and what can be done to counter misinformation? All three of these aspects need to be understood in the context of online social networks, which have fundamentally changed the way information is produced, consumed, and transmitted. The contributions within this volume summarize the most up-to-date empirical findings, theories, and applications and discuss cutting-edge ideas and future directions of interventions to counter fake news. Also providing guidance on how to handle misinformation in an age of “alternative facts”, this is a fascinating and vital reading for students and academics in psychology, communication, and political science and for professionals including policy makers and journalists.
Spooky Action At A Distance
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Author : George Musser
language : en
Publisher: Scientific American / Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Release Date : 2015-11-03
Spooky Action At A Distance written by George Musser and has been published by Scientific American / Farrar, Straus and Giroux this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-03 with Science categories.
Long-listed for the 2016 PEN/E. O. Wilson Literary Science Writing Award Delightfully readable, Spooky Action at a Distance is a mind-bending voyage to the frontiers of modern physics that will change the way we think about reality. What is space? It isn't a question that most of us normally ask. Space is the venue of physics; it's where things exist, where they move and take shape. Yet over the past few decades, physicists have discovered a phenomenon that operates outside the confines of space and time: nonlocality--the ability of two particles to act in harmony no matter how far apart they may be. It appears to be almost magical. Einstein grappled with this oddity and couldn't come to terms with it, describing it as "spooky action at a distance." More recently, the mystery has deepened as other forms of nonlocality have been uncovered. This strange occurrence, which has direct connections to black holes, particle collisions, and even the workings of gravity, holds the potential to undermine our most basic understandings of physical reality. If space isn't what we thought it was, then what is it? In Spooky Action at a Distance, George Musser sets out to answer that question, offering a provocative exploration of nonlocality and a celebration of the scientists who are trying to explain it. Musser guides us on an epic journey into the lives of experimental physicists observing particles acting in tandem, astronomers finding galaxies that look statistically identical, and cosmologists hoping to unravel the paradoxes surrounding the big bang. He traces the often contentious debates over nonlocality through major discoveries and disruptions of the twentieth century and shows how scientists faced with the same undisputed experimental evidence develop wildly different explanations for that evidence. Their conclusions challenge our understanding of not only space and time but also the origins of the universe-and they suggest a new grand unified theory of physics. “An important book that provides insight into key new developments in our understanding of the nature of space, time and the universe. It will repay careful study.” —John Gribbin, The Wall Street Journal “An endlessly surprising foray into the current mother of physics' many knotty mysteries, the solving of which may unveil the weirdness of quantum particles, black holes, and the essential unity of nature.” —Kirkus Reviews (starred review)
Ask A Manager
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Author : Alison Green
language : en
Publisher: Hachette UK
Release Date : 2018-05-01
Ask A Manager written by Alison Green and has been published by Hachette UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-01 with Business & Economics categories.
'I'm a HUGE fan of Alison Green's "Ask a Manager" column. This book is even better' Robert Sutton, author of The No Asshole Rule and The Asshole Survival Guide 'Ask A Manager is the book I wish I'd had in my desk drawer when I was starting out (or even, let's be honest, fifteen years in)' - Sarah Knight, New York Times bestselling author of The Life-Changing Magic of Not Giving a F*ck A witty, practical guide to navigating 200 difficult professional conversations Ten years as a workplace advice columnist has taught Alison Green that people avoid awkward conversations in the office because they don't know what to say. Thankfully, Alison does. In this incredibly helpful book, she takes on the tough discussions you may need to have during your career. You'll learn what to say when: · colleagues push their work on you - then take credit for it · you accidentally trash-talk someone in an email and hit 'reply all' · you're being micromanaged - or not being managed at all · your boss seems unhappy with your work · you got too drunk at the Christmas party With sharp, sage advice and candid letters from real-life readers, Ask a Manager will help you successfully navigate the stormy seas of office life.
Networks Crowds And Markets
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Author : David Easley
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2010-07-19
Networks Crowds And Markets written by David Easley and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-07-19 with Computers categories.
Are all film stars linked to Kevin Bacon? Why do the stock markets rise and fall sharply on the strength of a vague rumour? How does gossip spread so quickly? Are we all related through six degrees of separation? There is a growing awareness of the complex networks that pervade modern society. We see them in the rapid growth of the internet, the ease of global communication, the swift spread of news and information, and in the way epidemics and financial crises develop with startling speed and intensity. This introductory book on the new science of networks takes an interdisciplinary approach, using economics, sociology, computing, information science and applied mathematics to address fundamental questions about the links that connect us, and the ways that our decisions can have consequences for others.
The Behavior Of Crowds A Psychological Study
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Author : Everett Dean Martin
language : en
Publisher: e-artnow
Release Date : 2017-09-18
The Behavior Of Crowds A Psychological Study written by Everett Dean Martin and has been published by e-artnow this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-09-18 with Social Science categories.
Everett Dean Martin presented in this book what he saw as the dilemma of the modern age: a technological information revolution that made it possible, in the absence of an adequate educational system, to influence ignorant men and women with propaganda and half-truths. Everett Dean Martin was an American minister, writer, journalist, instructor, lecturer, social psychologist, social philosopher, and an advocate of adult education.
Media Technologies
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Author : Tarleton Gillespie
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2014-01-24
Media Technologies written by Tarleton Gillespie and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-24 with Computers categories.
Scholars from communication and media studies join those from science and technology studies to examine media technologies as complex, sociomaterial phenomena. In recent years, scholarship around media technologies has finally shed the assumption that these technologies are separate from and powerfully determining of social life, looking at them instead as produced by and embedded in distinct social, cultural, and political practices. Communication and media scholars have increasingly taken theoretical perspectives originating in science and technology studies (STS), while some STS scholars interested in information technologies have linked their research to media studies inquiries into the symbolic dimensions of these tools. In this volume, scholars from both fields come together to advance this view of media technologies as complex sociomaterial phenomena. The contributors first address the relationship between materiality and mediation, considering such topics as the lived realities of network infrastructure. The contributors then highlight media technologies as always in motion, held together through the minute, unobserved work of many, including efforts to keep these technologies alive. Contributors Pablo J. Boczkowski, Geoffrey C. Bowker, Finn Brunton, Gabriella Coleman, Gregory J. Downey, Kirsten A. Foot, Tarleton Gillespie, Steven J. Jackson, Christopher M. Kelty, Leah A. Lievrouw, Sonia Livingstone, Ignacio Siles, Jonathan Sterne, Lucy Suchman, Fred Turner
Development Policies And Policy Processes In Africa
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Author : Christian Henning
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-10-05
Development Policies And Policy Processes In Africa written by Christian Henning and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-10-05 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. The book examines the methodological challenges in analyzing the effectiveness of development policies. It presents a selection of tools and methodologies that can help tackle the complexities of which policies work best and why, and how they can be implemented effectively given the political and economic framework conditions of a country. The contributions in this book offer a continuation of the ongoing evidence-based debate on the role of agriculture and participatory policy processes in reducing poverty. They develop and apply quantitative political economy approaches by integrating quantitative models of political decision-making into existing economic modeling tools, allowing a more comprehensive growth-poverty analysis. The book addresses not only scholars who use quantitative policy modeling and evaluation techniques in their empirical or theoretical research, but also technical experts, including policy makers and analysts from stakeholder organizations, involved in formulating and implementing policies to reduce poverty and to increase economic and social well-being in African countries.
Preference Belief And Similarity
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Author : Amos Tversky
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2003-11-21
Preference Belief And Similarity written by Amos Tversky and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-11-21 with Psychology categories.
Amos Tversky (1937–1996), a towering figure in cognitive and mathematical psychology, devoted his professional life to the study of similarity, judgment, and decision making. He had a unique ability to master the technicalities of normative ideals and then to intuit and demonstrate experimentally their systematic violation due to the vagaries and consequences of human information processing. He created new areas of study and helped transform disciplines as varied as economics, law, medicine, political science, philosophy, and statistics. This book collects forty of Tversky's articles, selected by him in collaboration with the editor during the last months of Tversky's life. It is divided into three sections: Similarity, Judgment, and Preferences. The Preferences section is subdivided into Probabilistic Models of Choice, Choice under Risk and Uncertainty, and Contingent Preferences. Included are several articles written with his frequent collaborator, Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman.
The Origin Of Consciousness In The Breakdown Of The Bicameral Mind
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Author : Julian Jaynes
language : en
Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Release Date : 2000-08-15
The Origin Of Consciousness In The Breakdown Of The Bicameral Mind written by Julian Jaynes and has been published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-08-15 with Psychology categories.
National Book Award Finalist: “This man’s ideas may be the most influential, not to say controversial, of the second half of the twentieth century.”—Columbus Dispatch At the heart of this classic, seminal book is Julian Jaynes's still-controversial thesis that human consciousness did not begin far back in animal evolution but instead is a learned process that came about only three thousand years ago and is still developing. The implications of this revolutionary scientific paradigm extend into virtually every aspect of our psychology, our history and culture, our religion—and indeed our future. “Don’t be put off by the academic title of Julian Jaynes’s The Origin of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind. Its prose is always lucid and often lyrical…he unfolds his case with the utmost intellectual rigor.”—The New York Times “When Julian Jaynes . . . speculates that until late in the twentieth millennium BC men had no consciousness but were automatically obeying the voices of the gods, we are astounded but compelled to follow this remarkable thesis.”—John Updike, The New Yorker “He is as startling as Freud was in The Interpretation of Dreams, and Jaynes is equally as adept at forcing a new view of known human behavior.”—American Journal of Psychiatry