Essays On Topics In Business Cycle Macroeconomics With Heterogeneous Agents
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Essays On Topics In Business Cycle Macroeconomics With Heterogeneous Agents
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Author : Florian Kuhn
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Essays On Topics In Business Cycle Macroeconomics With Heterogeneous Agents written by Florian Kuhn and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.
This dissertation investigates several business cycle relationships when economic agents are heterogeneous. The particular focus is on the interactions between the cross-section of agents and the aggregate state of the economy. The first chapter shows that, when occasionally binding capacity constraints limit the production of heterogeneous firms, demand shocks can endogenously generate a number of important business cycle regularities: recessions are deeper than booms are high, firm-level volatility is countercyclical, the aggregate Solow residual is procyclical and the fiscal multiplier is countercyclical. A baseline calibration of a basic New Keynesian DSGE model with capacity constraints shows that this mechanism can explain more than a quarter of the empirically observed asymmetry in output, and matches the cyclicality of firm-level profitability dispersion and of the measured Solow residual. The model implies fluctuations in the fiscal multiplier of around 0.12 between expansions and recessions. Chapter two takes a different approach to firm level uncertainty, exploring how recessions can cause an endogenous rise in firm risk. If heterogeneous firms face real and financial frictions, then a shock to the mean of aggregate productivity endogenously leads to countercyclical profitability risk through firms' heterogeneous responses in price setting. Additionally, the mechanism endogenously generates countercyclical credit spreads and credit spread dispersion. The model explains a large share of the observed fluctuations in profitability dispersion (69%) and in credit spreads (40%) through fluctuations in aggregate TFP holding productivity risk constant. This suggests that the scope for uncertainty shocks to explain recessions may be smaller than previously thought. The third chapter focuses on distributional effects of oil price shocks on the household side. In the model, household behavior replicates two patterns found in household-level data which show that gas consumption increases with income, but on the intensive margin gasoline consumption as a share of the household's budget decreases with income. The model includes gas consumption in household utility on top of a fixed minimum level of gas consumption. Calibrated simulations suggest that a shock to the gas price is almost twice as costly for relatively poor households than for relatively rich households.
Interaction And Market Structure
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Author : Domenico Delli Gatti
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2000-03-27
Interaction And Market Structure written by Domenico Delli Gatti and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-03-27 with categories.
Issues In Macroeconomics
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Author : Chedtha Intaravitak
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Issues In Macroeconomics written by Chedtha Intaravitak and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.
Abstract: One active area of recent research in macroeconomics is the business cycle dynamics of the economy when agents are heterogenous and markets are incomplete. The literature has shown that standard results of the representative agents/complete market paradigm could profoundly change when we adopt a heterogenous-agents framework and agents cannot fully insure against risks. This volume is an attempt to contribute to this research program from both quantitative and computational perspectives. In particular, I provide a quantitative analysis of some welfare issues, explore the role of monetary policy in the long run, and examine the robustness of a main idea proposed in the literature. Computationally, the currently-used numerical algorithm has been modified to accommodate these extensive applications resulting in a faster routine that can be applied in much richer setups. The first chapter analyses the welfare consequences of eliminating the economic crisis in an economy with substantial agent heterogeneity. The model is calibrated to match the U.S. wealth distribution, employment features, and the size of the investment drop during the U.S. Great Depression. I find a small gain from eliminating the depression-style economic crisis. There are, however, large differences across different groups: very poor and unemployed consumers gain a lot, while richer and employed individuals gain less and sometimes lose from eliminating the economic crisis. The second chapter examines the validity of Sidrauski's (1967) money superneutrality result in this class of models. I show that the superneutrality result no longer holds in this case. Tobin's (1965) effect and heterogeneity in inflation tax account for the non-superneutrality of money. However, the effects of higher money growth rate on real variables are rather small. The change in money growth rate mostly gets reflected in an increase in the aggregate price level. The third chapter explores the robustness of the "approximate aggregation" insight proposed by Krusell and Smith (1998) in a much richer setting. The conclusion shows that approximate aggregation no longer holds. In an economy featuring a crisis state and two assets; capital and money, we can no longer adequately describe macroeconomic aggregates using only the first moment of the wealth distribution.
Essays On Business Cycles And Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models With Heterogeneous Agents
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Author : Jonghyeon Oh
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Essays On Business Cycles And Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models With Heterogeneous Agents written by Jonghyeon Oh and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
This dissertation focuses on business cycles and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents. Micro-data either for households or for firms are important sources to understand macroeconomic movements. Heterogeneous agent models are useful tools to study the implications of microeconomic aspects of economy on macroeconomy.
Essays In Heterogeneous Agent Monetary Economics
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Author : Christian D. Bustamante Amaya
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Essays In Heterogeneous Agent Monetary Economics written by Christian D. Bustamante Amaya and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with Macroeconomics categories.
In these essays, I study the interplay of monetary policy with agent heterogeneity in economies with frictional markets. While accounting for the heterogeneity observed at the micro level, I investigate the implications of having persistent differences in firms and households' balance sheets and their consequences for business cycle fluctuations in monetary economies during both normal times and in times of economic distress. In the first chapter, “Debt Overhang, Monetary Policy, and Economic Recoveries After Large Recessions”, I explore why conventional monetary policy was so ineffective in mitigating the severity of the 2007 U.S. recession and unsuccessful thereafter in stimulating aggregate demand. Linking firm-level data with predictions from a model, I show that accounting for individual firms’ debt structures is crucial in explaining why business investment fell so dramatically through the recession and remained low for several years, despite the Federal Reserve repeatedly cutting its target interest rate until conventional policy tools were exhausted. Using a sample of publicly traded firms, I establish that firms with greater long-term debt exposure experienced larger contractions and slower recoveries in their investment expenditure. Next, I show that debt overhang episodes were unusually prevalent over the years following the onset of the recession, and particularly so among firms relying more heavily on long-maturing debt. To understand these microeconomic observations and their implications for aggregates, I develop a New Keynesian model where heterogeneous firms finance investment using defaultable nominal long-term debt and where the central bank faces an explicit zero lower bound constraint. There, the greater a firm’s leverage, the higher its likelihood of experiencing a debt overhang episode following a large aggregate shock. Moreover, the severity of debt overhang problems, and their consequences for the distribution and level of aggregate investment, compounds with (1) an increased real value of debt, i.e., debt deflation, and (2) the monetary authority’s inability to restore inflation once nominal interest rates reach the zero lower bound. Together, firms’ long maturity debt positions and the binding zero lower bound are critical in transmitting the consequences of a deep recession into a remarkably anemic recovery in aggregate investment.
Essays On Macroeconomic Policies And Household Heterogeneity
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Author : Gergő Motyovszki
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Essays On Macroeconomic Policies And Household Heterogeneity written by Gergő Motyovszki and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with Macroeconomics categories.
This thesis is composed of three independent chapters, but all centered around the broader topic of how macroeconomic policies interact with various aspects of household heterogeneity. Monetary Policy and Inequality under Labor Market Frictions and Capital-Skill Complementarity We provide a new channel through which monetary policy has distributional consequences at business cycle frequencies. We show that an unexpected monetary easing increases labor income inequality between high and less-skilled workers. In particular, this effect is prominent in sectors intensive in less-skilled labor, that exhibit high degree of capital-skill complementarity (CSC) and are subject to matching inefficiencies. To rationalize these findings we build a New Keynesian DSGE model with asymmetric search and matching (SAM) frictions across the two types of workers and CSC in the production function. We show that CSC on its own introduces a dynamic demand amplification mechanism: the increase in high-skilled employment after a monetary expansion makes complementary capital more productive, encouraging a further rise in investment demand and creating a multiplier effect. SAM asymmetries magnify this channel. Monetary-Fiscal Interactions and Redistribution in Small Open Economies Ballooning public debts in the wake of the covid-19 pandemic can present monetary-fiscal policies with a dilemma if and when neutral real interest rates rise, which might arrive sooner in emerging markets: policymakers can stabilize debts either by relying on fiscal adjustments (AM-PF) or by tolerating higher inflation (PM-AF). The choice between these policy mixes affects the efficacy of the fiscal expansion already today and can interact with the distributive properties of the stimulus across heterogeneous households. To study this, I build a two agent New Keynesian (TANK) small open economy model with monetary-fiscal interactions. Targeting fiscal transfers more towards high-MPC agents increases the output multiplier of a fiscal stimulus, while raising the degree of deficitfinancing for these transfers also helps. However, precise targeting is much more important under the AM-PF regime than the question of financing, while the opposite is the case with a PM-AF policy mix: then deficit-spending is crucial for the size of the multiplier, and targeting matters less. Under the PM-AF regime fiscal stimulus entails a real exchange rate depreciation which might offset "import leakage" by stimulating net exports, if the share of hand-to-mouth households is low and trade is price elastic enough. Therefore, a PM-AF policy mix might break the Mundell-Fleming prediction that open economies have smaller fiscal multipliers relative to closed economies. Weak Wage Recovery and Precautionary Motives after a Credit Crunch During the economic recovery following the financial crisis many advanced economies saw subdued wage dynamics, in spite of falling unemployment and an increasingly tight labour market. We propose a mechanism which can account for this puzzle and work against usual aggregate demand channels. In a heterogeneous agent model with incomplete markets we endogenize uninsurable idiosyncratic risk through search-and-matching (SAM) frictions in the labour market. In this setting, apart from the usual precautionary saving behaviour, households can self-insure also by settling for lower wages in order to secure a job and thereby avoid becoming borrowing constrained. This channel is especially pronounced for asset-poor agents, already close to the constraint. We introduce a credit crunch into this framework modelled as a gradual tightening of the borrowing constraint (and utilizing a continuous time approach, known as HACT). The perfect foresight transition dynamics feature falling wages despite a tightening labour market and expanding employment. As households suddenly find themselves closer to the borrowing constraint, the increased precautionary motive drives them to accept lower wages in the bargaining process, while firms respond to this by posting more vacancies, leading to a tighter labour market and falling unemployment. If the household deleveraging pressure is persistent enough after the credit crunch, it can explain the weak wage recovery in spite of already stronger aggregate demand.
Essays On Monetary Economies With Heterogeneous Agents
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Author : Hoonsik Yang
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Essays On Monetary Economies With Heterogeneous Agents written by Hoonsik Yang and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
This dissertation consists of three essays in monetary economics. Although the topic of each chapter differs, the approach is shared: I extend a random matching model of money by augmenting the set of money holdings, and compute socially desirable allocations in the spirit of mechanism design analysis. The augmentation is not just technically improving the model, but making the model rich enough to think about the economic problem that each chapter delves into. I document some interesting properties of the desirable allocations, and highlight the differences generated by the extension.Chapter 1. "A beneficial role of government bonds"I study a random matching model of money to show that the existence of bonds can be beneficial to a society, compared to having only money. In the model, anonymous agents randomly meet in pairs to produce and consume, hence money becomes essential. I compare two identical economies except the availability of bonds, in the sense that people can use any available assets as payments. Following the mechanism design approach, I define implementable allocations and the optimum. Under the notion of the implementability, social planner can devise trading mechanisms that induce people to hold both assets without exogenously given advantages of money as means of payment. I find that having both bondsand money in the economy can improve social welfare over having only money. This role of bonds is associated with a beneficial effect of inflation produced by lump-sum transfers, and it is achieved differently from the previously documented mechanism.Chapter 2. "Optimal intervention in a random-matching model of money" (joint with Wataru Nozawa)Wallace [2014] conjectures that there generically exists an inflation-financed transfer scheme that improves welfare over no intervention in pure-currency economies. We investigate this conjecture in the Shi-Trejos-Wright model with different upper bounds on money holdings. The choice of an upper bound affects the results as some potentially beneficial transfer schemes cannot be studied under small upper bounds. Numerical optima are computed for different degrees of discounting rate and risk aversion. As the upper bound on money holdings increases, optima are more likely to have positive money creation (and inflation),and this result is in line with the conjecture.Chapter 3. "Optimal inflation in a model of inside money: A further result" (joint with Wataru Nozawa)We extend the Deviatov and Wallace [2014] model of inside money in which they find some examples where inflation is beneficial. Their model is restrictive in that it cannot address policies that provide interests on cash (Friedman rule). With a higher upper bound on money holdings than what they use, such policies can be engineered without inflation and resulting allocations are potentially better than what they find, in which case positive inflation is not a property of good allocation. We investigate this possibility and confirm their results in a more generalized setting for some parameters. At optima for the examples, interest on cash is not provided and positive inflation arises in a similar manner to their work. Welfareat optimum increases monotonically with respect to discount factor and public monitoring capacity of a society, but other variables change in a more complex way.
Essays In Macroeconomics With Heterogeneous Agents
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Author : Pierre-Alexandre Noual
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Essays In Macroeconomics With Heterogeneous Agents written by Pierre-Alexandre Noual and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Labor supply categories.
My dissertation investigates two models of macroeconomics with heterogeneous agents. The first chapter analyzes a setup where agents are ex ante identical, yet receive idiosyncratic income shocks which make them heterogeneous ex post. A private information friction gives rise to incomplete risk-sharing as a constrained-efficient allocation. The second chapter again considers ex post heterogeneous agents: they have identical preferences but face idiosyncratic shocks to their earning capacity. There the focus is not on risk-sharing, but on the aggregate consequences for labor supply.
Essays On Business Cycles And Heterogeneous Agents
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Author : Jose Ignacio Lopez Gaviria
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Essays On Business Cycles And Heterogeneous Agents written by Jose Ignacio Lopez Gaviria and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Business cycles categories.
Essays On Macroeconomic Policy With Heterogeneous Agents And Digital Assets
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Author : Antzelos Kyriazis
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2023
Essays On Macroeconomic Policy With Heterogeneous Agents And Digital Assets written by Antzelos Kyriazis and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023 with categories.
This dissertation has three chapters. In the first chapter, I build a three-agent preferred-habitat New Keynesian (PHANK) model. I show that the fiscal multiplier decreases in the presence of countercyclical QE policies after a fiscal expansion since countercyclical QE implies that the central bank sells government bonds, leading to higher expected returns on these bonds, which in turn incentivizes the bondholders to save more. However, since bondholders save more, they consume less, and as a result, consumption inequality between the savers and the non-savers falls, but wealth inequality increases. The qualitative results are similar in a medium-scale heterogeneous agents New Keynesian (HANK) model. In the three-agent model, I also solve for the optimal fiscal and QE policies at the zero lower bound, and I find that both are expansionary. The optimal increase in central bank asset purchases allows the government to increase government spending by less relative to the case where QE follows a countercyclical rule, so lower tax revenues are needed. In the second chapter, I study how US QE programs affect the US economy and the emerging market economies regarding their macro aggregates and asset prices. First, using Bayesian VAR models, I find that expansionary QE has positive and statistically significant effects in the US economy and the emerging market economies; real GDP, real investment, the price level, and asset prices rise. However, in emerging market economies, the currencies appreciate, the current account-to-GDP ratios deteriorate, the money supply increases, and the government bond yields increase. Then, I build a two-country HANK model that matches the empirical responses. Through the model, I examine how wealth inequality evolves both in the US economy and in the emerging market economy after a positive QE shock. Wealth inequality increases in the short run but decreases over the medium run in both countries. Also, I study the effects of policies that aim to reduce the leverage in the financial sector of the emerging market economy, such as capital controls, and I find that this policy indeed reduces the capital flows and leverage. However, economic activity also falls, and the welfare effects are mixed across households.The last chapter resulted from my strong interest in digital assets that emerged during my last year in the program. In this chapter, which results from collaborative work with Iason Ofeidis, Georgios Palaiokrassas, and Leandros Tassiulas, we examine the effects of unexpected changes in US monetary policy on digital asset returns, and on DeFi-related variables such as borrowing rates, outstanding debt, and TVL. We also examine the effects that the FOMC statement releases and the Minutes releases have on the volatility of digital asset returns. Finally, we examine how DeFi activity evolves around the FOMC announcements. The results from this chapter show first that the returns on digital assets are significantly affected by the unexpected part of the FOMC announcements. The volatility of the returns is also significantly affected by the FOMC releases but less significantly affected by the Minutes releases. Second, the DeFi-related variables are also affected by unexpected changes in monetary policy. Lastly, we find that the most significant spikes in DeFi activity occur on the FOMC announcement days or days very close to the announcement days.