Estimating Hysteresis Effects
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Estimating Hysteresis Effects
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Author : Francesco Furlanetto
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Estimating Hysteresis Effects written by Francesco Furlanetto and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with Hysteresis (Economics) categories.
In this paper we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call these shocks permanent demand shocks. They are found to be quantitatively important in the United States, in particular when the Great Recession is included in the sample. Recessions driven by permanent demand shocks lead to a permanent decline in employment and investment (including R&D investment), while output per worker is largely unaffected. We find strong evidence that hysteresis transmits through a rise in long-term unemployment and a decline in labor force participation and disproportionately affects the least productive workers.
How Large Are Hysteresis Effects Estimates From A Keynesian Growth Model
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Author : Steven Fazzari
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2023
How Large Are Hysteresis Effects Estimates From A Keynesian Growth Model written by Steven Fazzari and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023 with categories.
Multivariate Filter Estimation Of Potential Output For The United States An Extension With Labor Market Hysteresis
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Author : Ali Alichi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-02-19
Multivariate Filter Estimation Of Potential Output For The United States An Extension With Labor Market Hysteresis written by Ali Alichi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep recessions (expansions) cause persistent damage (improvement) to the labor market, thereby reducing (increasing) potential output. Applying the model to U.S. data results in significantly smaller estimates of output gaps, and higher estimates of the NAIRU, after the global financial crisis, compared to estimates without hysteresis. The smaller output gaps partly explain the absence of persistent deflation despite the slow recovery during 2010-2017. Going forward, if strong growth performance continues well beyond 2018, hysteresis is expected to result in a structural improvement in growth and employment.
Hysteresis And Business Cycles
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Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-29
Hysteresis And Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Hysteresis In Unemployment
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Author : Laurence M. Ball
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Hysteresis In Unemployment written by Laurence M. Ball and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with categories.
This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (u) and its natural rate (u*), with u* measured by real-time estimates for 29 countries from the OECD. We find strong evidence of hysteresis: an innovation in u causes u* to change in the same direction, and therefore has permanent effects. For our baseline specification, a one percentage point deviation of u from u* for one year has a long-run effect of 0.16 points on both variables. When we allow asymmetry, we find, perhaps surprisingly, that decreases in u have larger long-run effects than increases in u.
Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates
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Author : John Williamson
language : en
Publisher: Peterson Institute
Release Date : 1994
Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates written by John Williamson and has been published by Peterson Institute this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Business & Economics categories.
The problems of exchange rate misalignments and the resulting payments imbalances have plagued the world economy for decades. At the Louvre Accord of 1987, the Group of Five industrial countries adopted a system of reference ranges for exchange rate management, influenced by proposals of C. Fred Bergstan and John Williamson for a target zone system. The reference range approach has, however, been operated only intermittently and half-heartedly, and questions continue to be raised in policy and scholarly circles about the design and operation of a full-fledged target zone regime. This volume, with chapters by leading international economists, explores one crucial issue in the design of a target zone system: the problem of calculating Williamson's concept of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER). Williamson contributes an overview of the policy and analytic issues and a second chapter on his own calculations.
The Scarring And Hysteresis Effects Of Steep Recessions And The Implications For Fiscal Policy In Eca Transition Emdes
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Author : Martin Brownbridge
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
The Scarring And Hysteresis Effects Of Steep Recessions And The Implications For Fiscal Policy In Eca Transition Emdes written by Martin Brownbridge and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with categories.
The deep recession in many of the emerging market transition economies of Europe and Central Asia caused by the COVID-19 crisis has raised fears of long-term damage to potential output through scarring and hysteresis. These economies were also hit hard by the great recession caused by the global financial crisis. This paper provides empirical estimates of the impact of the great recession on the subsequent medium-term level of real gross domestic product in a sample of 65 middle-income countries. It finds evidence of a significant hysteresis parameter in these countries. The paper also examines how the combination of a hysteresis parameter and a positive fiscal multiplier can mean that a countercyclical fiscal expansion that successfully mitigates the output loss in a recession need not worsen public debt levels in the medium to long term because of its positive impact on potential output and thus the tax base.
Insignificant And Inconsequential Hysteresis
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Author : David C. Parsley
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994
Insignificant And Inconsequential Hysteresis written by David C. Parsley and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Balance of trade categories.
This paper casts doubt on the validity of the hysteresis hypothesis as an explanation of the persistent U.S. trade deficits in the 1980s. We propose two tests to investigate two different implications of the hypothesis. The first implication is that cumulative changes in exchange rates, in addition to current exchange rate levels, are important determinants of trade flows. The second implication is that foreign exporting firms' perceptions of exchange rate volatility will affect their decisions to enter or exit the market. We find little support for either aspect of the hysteresis hypothesis.
A Systems Approach To Estimating The Natural Rate Of Unemployment And Potential Output For The United States
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1989-10-26
A Systems Approach To Estimating The Natural Rate Of Unemployment And Potential Output For The United States written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989-10-26 with Business & Economics categories.
The methodology used in this paper has three distinguishing features: the natural rate of unemployment and potential output are jointly estimated; estimation integrates wage and price data with “real” and structural data; and third, the methodology encompasses many of the methods found in the literature. The results indicate that potential output growth has recovered somewhat during the early 1980s, but remains below the rapid rates of increase in the late 1960s. The natural rate, after rising during the late 1960s and the 1970s, is found to have declined in the 1980s. The paper concludes with an assessment of medium-term prospects for potential output and-the natural rate.
Effect Of Hysteresis Type On Drift Capacity For Global Collapse Of Moment Frame Structures For Seismic Loads
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Effect Of Hysteresis Type On Drift Capacity For Global Collapse Of Moment Frame Structures For Seismic Loads written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.