Estimating Potential Growth In The Middle East And Central Asia
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Estimating Potential Growth In The Middle East And Central Asia
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Author : Ms.Pritha Mitra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-03-20
Estimating Potential Growth In The Middle East And Central Asia written by Ms.Pritha Mitra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-03-20 with Business & Economics categories.
The Middle East and Central Asia’s economic growth potential is slowing faster than in other emerging and developing regions, dampening hopes for reducing persistent unemployment and improving the region’s generally low living standards. Why? And is it possible to alter this course? This paper addresses these questions by estimating potential growth, examining its supply-side drivers, and assessing which of them could be most effective in raising potential growth. The analysis reveals that the region’s potential growth is expected to slow by 3⁄4 of a percentage point more than the EMDC average over the next five years. The reasons behind this slowdown differ across the region. Lower productivity growth drives the slowdown in the Caucasus and Central Asia and is also weighing on growth across the Middle East (MENAP); while a lower labor contribution to potential growth is the main driver in MENAP. Moving forward, given some natural constraints on labor, total factor productivity growth is key to unlocking the region’s higher growth potential. For oil importers, raising physical capital accumulation through greater investment will also play an important role.
Avoiding The New Mediocre
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Author : Ms.Pritha Mitra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-03-22
Avoiding The New Mediocre written by Ms.Pritha Mitra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-22 with Business & Economics categories.
Raising the Middle East and Central Asia’s long-term growth prospects is critical for meeting the region's pressing need for jobs and higher living standards.
Sme Financial Inclusion For Sustained Growth In The Middle East And Central Asia
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Author : Mishel Ghassibe
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-09-27
Sme Financial Inclusion For Sustained Growth In The Middle East And Central Asia written by Mishel Ghassibe and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-27 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper offers empirical evidence that greater financial inclusion of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) can promote higher economic growth and employment, especially in the Middle East and Central Asia regions. First, we show that countries with higher SME financial inclusion exhibit more effective monetary policy transmission and tax collection. Second, we find substantial employment and labor productivity growth gains at the firm level from access to credit, gains that are higher for SMEs. We also obtain evidence of a substantial positive impact on SME employment and labor productivity growth from improved credit bureau coverage and insolvency regimes. Finally, cross-country aggregate evidence confirms the employment and growth gains from SME financial inclusion, which appear larger in the Middle East and Central Asia than in other regions.
Regional Economic Outlook October 2014 Middle East And Central Asia
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-10-27
Regional Economic Outlook October 2014 Middle East And Central Asia written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-27 with Business & Economics categories.
This issue discusses economic developments in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP), which continue to reflect the diversity of conditions prevailing across the region. Most high-income oil exporters, primarily in the GCC, continue to record steady growth and solid economic and financial fundamentals, albeit with medium-term challenges that need to be addressed. In contrast, other countries—Iraq, Libya, and Syria—are mired in conflicts with not only humanitarian but also economic consequences. And yet other countries, mostly oil importers, are making continued but uneven progress in advancing their economic agendas, often in tandem with political transitions and amidst difficult social conditions. In most of these countries, without extensive economic and structural reforms, economic prospects for the medium term remain insufficient to reduce high unemployment and improve living standards.
Regional Economic Outlook October 2014 Middle East And Central Asia
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-10-27
Regional Economic Outlook October 2014 Middle East And Central Asia written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-27 with Business & Economics categories.
This issue discusses economic developments in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP), which continue to reflect the diversity of conditions prevailing across the region. Most high-income oil exporters, primarily in the GCC, continue to record steady growth and solid economic and financial fundamentals, albeit with medium-term challenges that need to be addressed. In contrast, other countries—Iraq, Libya, and Syria—are mired in conflicts with not only humanitarian but also economic consequences. And yet other countries, mostly oil importers, are making continued but uneven progress in advancing their economic agendas, often in tandem with political transitions and amidst difficult social conditions. In most of these countries, without extensive economic and structural reforms, economic prospects for the medium term remain insufficient to reduce high unemployment and improve living standards.
Regional Economic Outlook Middle East And Central Asia May 2023
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-05-03
Regional Economic Outlook Middle East And Central Asia May 2023 written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-05-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The economies of the Middle East and Central Asia proved resilient in 2022, despite a series of global shocks. However, this year—and potentially next—growth is expected to slow in the Middle East and North Africa as tight policies to fight inflation, reduce vulnerabilities, and rebuild buffers start to dent economic activity in many countries, and agreed oil production cuts curb growth in oil exporters. Inflation is projected to remain persistent. The outlook for Caucasus and Central Asia countries depends heavily on external factors, namely the impact of monetary tightening, and growth in their main trading partners, the pace of private transfers, and inflows of migrants from Russia. Uncertainty is high, and risks to the baseline are tilted to the downside amid financial stability concerns, particularly in advanced economies amid contagion fears. Policy trade-offs are even more complex, and policymakers will need to calibrate the policy mix carefully to reduce core inflation without triggering financial stress and excessive tightening and continue to provide targeted fiscal support to vulnerable groups while preserving debt sustainability and financial stability. Tight monetary and fiscal policies across the region amid tight global financial conditions call for accelerating structural reforms to bolster potential growth and enhance resilience.
Regional Economic Outlook Middle East And Central Asia
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-10-31
Regional Economic Outlook Middle East And Central Asia written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-10-31 with Business & Economics categories.
In a worsening global environment, economies in the Middle East and Central Asia are being buffeted by a confluence of shocks: a global slowdown, high and volatile food and energy prices, faster and stronger than expected tightening of financial conditions, and the risk of fragmentation. The region’s emerging market and middle-income economies (EM&MIs) and low-income countries (LICs) are hit hard, with many facing curtailed access to market financing, while oil-exporting countries are being buffered by still-high energy prices. The adverse impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) has thus far been milder than expected. Still, the CCA’s strong ties to Russia entail substantial risks to the region’s outlook. The most urgent policy challenge for all countries is to tackle the cost-of-living crisis by restoring price stability, protecting vulnerable groups through targeted support, and ensuring food security. Policy trade-offs in EM&MIs and LICs have become more pronounced than ever, as they also need to preserve debt sustainability and financial stability. Oil exporters have the opportunity to maximize the benefits of the oil windfall by building buffers and advancing their diversification plans. CCA countries should carefully assess the magnitude and durability of the initial spillovers from the war in Ukraine and adjust their policy mix accordingly. Limited policy space in many countries raises the urgency of structural reforms to bolster economic growth while transforming economies to become more resilient, sustainable, diversified, and inclusive.
Export Spillovers From Global Shocks For The Middle East And Central Asia
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Author : Mr.Alberto Behar
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-05-09
Export Spillovers From Global Shocks For The Middle East And Central Asia written by Mr.Alberto Behar and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-05-09 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP indicate non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive while service exports are less responsive. Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance, and the possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports. The Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe, while CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS.
Estimating Potential Growth In The Middle East And Central Asia
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Author : Ms.Pritha Mitra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-03-20
Estimating Potential Growth In The Middle East And Central Asia written by Ms.Pritha Mitra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-03-20 with Business & Economics categories.
The Middle East and Central Asia’s economic growth potential is slowing faster than in other emerging and developing regions, dampening hopes for reducing persistent unemployment and improving the region’s generally low living standards. Why? And is it possible to alter this course? This paper addresses these questions by estimating potential growth, examining its supply-side drivers, and assessing which of them could be most effective in raising potential growth. The analysis reveals that the region’s potential growth is expected to slow by 3⁄4 of a percentage point more than the EMDC average over the next five years. The reasons behind this slowdown differ across the region. Lower productivity growth drives the slowdown in the Caucasus and Central Asia and is also weighing on growth across the Middle East (MENAP); while a lower labor contribution to potential growth is the main driver in MENAP. Moving forward, given some natural constraints on labor, total factor productivity growth is key to unlocking the region’s higher growth potential. For oil importers, raising physical capital accumulation through greater investment will also play an important role.
Regional Economic Outlook October 2009 Middle East And Central Asia
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2009-10-02
Regional Economic Outlook October 2009 Middle East And Central Asia written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-10-02 with Business & Economics categories.
The global economic crisis has taken a toll on the Middle East and Central Asia region, but appropriate policy responses have helped mitigate the impact. Looking ahead, the region's oil exporters are expected to benefit from rising oil prices as the world economy begins to pull out of an unparalleled post-World War II recession. Oil importers, however, are likely to continue to face continued headwinds that may delay an uptake in growth. Where feasible, countries should continue to support domestic demand to lessen the impact of the crisis on the poor while maintaining a focus on debt sustainability. For the region's low-income countries, higher donor support will be needed to maintain economic development. Across the region, governments should further strengthen financial systems and be careful not to lose momentum on structural reforms. Published biannually in May and October.