Exchange Rate Fluctuations And Output In Oil Producing Countries
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Exchange Rate Fluctuations And Output In Oil Producing Countries
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Author : Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2007-05
Exchange Rate Fluctuations And Output In Oil Producing Countries written by Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Conventional wisdom states that currency depreciation in oil-producing countries are contractionary because demand effects, limited by the prevalence of oil exports priced in dollars, are more than offset by adverse supply effects. Iran, however, has experienced a rapid increase in non-oil exports in the last decade. Against this background, the paper tests whether the conventional wisdom still applies to Iran and concludes that the emergence of the non-oil export sector has made currency depreciation expansionary. The expansionary effect is particularly evident with respect to anticipated persistent depreciation in the long-run. Notwithstanding the varying effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the demand and supply sides of the economy, managing a flexible exchange rate gradually over time towards achieving stability in the real effective exchange rate may strike the necessary balance.
The Effect Of Opec Oil Pricing On Output Prices And Exchange Rates In The United States And Other Industrial Countries
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Author : Heywood W. Fleisig
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1981
The Effect Of Opec Oil Pricing On Output Prices And Exchange Rates In The United States And Other Industrial Countries written by Heywood W. Fleisig and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1981 with Foreign exchange rates categories.
Exchange Rate Assessments
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Author : Mr.Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2009-12-01
Exchange Rate Assessments written by Mr.Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Are the current account fluctuations in oil-exporting countries "excessive"? How should their real exchange rate respond to the evolution of external (and domestic) fundamentals? This paper proposes methodologies tailored to the specific features of oil-exporting countries that help address these questions. Price-based methodologies (based on the time series of real effective exchange rates) identify a strong link between the real exchange rate and the terms of trade, but have relatively limited explanatory power. On the other hand, an empirical model of the current account, which fits oil exporting countries' data well, and an intertemporal model that takes into account the stock of oil reserves provide useful benchmarks for oil exporters' external balances.
The Impacts Of Oil Price Fluctuations On Competitiveness And Macroeconomic Activity
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Author : Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
The Impacts Of Oil Price Fluctuations On Competitiveness And Macroeconomic Activity written by Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.
This thesis focuses on the relationships between oil prices fluctuations and trade-related variables. There are 6 chapters. The introductory chapter sets the scene while chapter 2 discusses the theory for economics of non-renewable resources. This is followed by three substantive chapters which focus on three different aspects of the thesis: the oil price-RCA relationship, the oil price-exchange rate relationship and the oil price-output growth relationship. Chapter 6 concludes the thesis. Chapter 3 quantifies the effects of oil price fluctuations on revealed comparative advantage (RCA) for 36 manufacturing commodities of 167 countries from 1990 to 2005. Using Zellner's (1962) seemingly unrelated regression (SURE) model, the chapter finds that oil price fluctuations negatively affect middle-income economies and net oil-exporting countries' RCA more than high-income economies and net oil-importing countries. Chapter 4 explores the long run effects of real oil price and real interest rate differential on real exchange rate for a monthly panel of 8 countries from 1980 to 2008. Using the mean group estimator, the chapter finds no statistically significant relationship between real oil price and real exchange rate for oil-importing and oil- exporting countries. However, when using the pooled mean group estimator, the chapter finds a positive and statistically significant impact of real oil price on real exchange rate for five net oil importing countries, implying that increase in oil price leads to real exchange rate depreciation . . Chapter 5 investigates the asymmetric effects of oil pnce shocks on real economic activities in Malaysia from 1991 to 2007. Using an unrestricted Vector Auto Regressive (V AR) method, mixed results are obtained. Evidence of a symmetric relationship between oil prices and economic activities is obtained from the impulse response function (IRFs). However, the variance decomposition analyses VAR suggest that oil prices have different impacts on economic activities when they increase than when they fall.
Exchange Rate Fluctuations Interest Rate Instability And Manufacturing Sector Output In Nigeria 1986 2017
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Author : Daniel Chibueze Onyejiuwa
language : de
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2020-09-23
Exchange Rate Fluctuations Interest Rate Instability And Manufacturing Sector Output In Nigeria 1986 2017 written by Daniel Chibueze Onyejiuwa and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Doktorarbeit / Dissertation aus dem Jahr 2019 im Fachbereich VWL - Außenhandelstheorie, Außenhandelspolitik, Obafemi Awolowo University, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: The study appraises different interest rate policies, exchange rate regimes and manufacturing sector in Nigeria from 1986 to 2017 and determines the effect of interest rate and exchange rate interaction on manufacturing sector output. It investigates the dynamic effects of exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate instability on manufacturing sector output, examines the response of manufacturing sector output to shocks from exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate instability. It also determines the threshold levels of exchange rate and interest rate that will spur manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. These are with a view to examining the relationship among exchange rate fluctuations, interest rate instability and manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. The study uses secondary data. Annual data from 1986 to 2017 on manufacturing sector output, exchange rate, interest rates, gross fixed capital formation, credit to manufacturing sector, real GDP per capita, agricultural sector output, construction sector output, trade sector output, service sector output, tax revenue, inflation rate and trade openness are obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin of various years and World Development Indicators of various years, published by World Bank. The data collected is analysed using tables, graphs, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square estimator, Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, Vector Autoregressive model and Sarel Threshold model to achieve the stated objectives. The study concludes that exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate instabilty dampened manufacturing sector output in Nigeria.
Oil Prices And The Global Economy
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Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-01-27
Oil Prices And The Global Economy written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-27 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Essays On Monetary Policy In An Oil Exporting Economy
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Author : Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Essays On Monetary Policy In An Oil Exporting Economy written by Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.
The aim of this thesis is to analyze the impact of external shocks on oil exporting economies and the role of monetary policy in this context. It consists of three essays. In the first essay, we build a Multi-sector Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate the impact of both windfall (an increase in oil price) and boom (an increase in oil resource) on an oil exporting economy. Our model is built to see if the two oil shocks (windfall and boom) generate, in the same proportion, a Dutch Disease effect. Our main findings show that the Dutch disease effect under its two main mechanisms, namely spending effect and resource-movement effect, occurs only in the case of flexible wages and sticky prices, when exchange rate is fixed. We also compare the source of fluctuations that leads to a strong effect in term of de-industrialization. We conclude that the windfall leads to a stronger effect than a boom. Finally, the choice of flexible exchange rate regime helps to improve welfare.In the second essay, we estimate, by using the Bayesian approach, a DSGE model for Algerian economy investigating the dynamic effect of four external shocks (oil price, real exchange rate, international interest rate and foreign inflation), and examining the appropriate monetary policy rule. Our main findings show that, over the period 1990Q1-2010Q4, core inflation target is the best monetary rule to stabilize both output and inflation. In the third essay, we investigate the impact of the recent increase of oil price on a small open oil exporting economy. For this, we estimate a Dynamic, Stochastic, General equilibrium (DSGE) model for some oil producing countries using the Bayesian approach. We consider, in this essay, a sample of 16 oil exporting countries (Algeria, Argentina, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, Kuwait, Libya, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela) over the period from 1980 to 2010, except for Russia where our sample begins in 1992. In order to distinguish between high-dependent and low-dependent countries, we use two indicators : the ratio of fuel exports to total merchandise exports and the ratio of oil exports to GDP. We estimate the median for each ratio on our 16 studied countries. Countries above (below) the median are considered as high (low) oil dependent economies. We verify if the first group is more sensitive to the Dutch disease effect. We also assess the role of monetary policy. Our main findings show that in the first sample, namely high oil dependant economies, 6 countries are affected by the Dutch disease (decrease in the manufacturing production). Low oil dependant countries, are less affected by the fluctuation of oil price. Indeed, only one country has suffered a Dutch disease effect after the shock. Nevertheless, Regarding the appropriate monetary policy rule, we find that both inflation targeting and exchange rate rules may be effective to contain the size of the Dutch disease effect. Our results suggest that in Algeria and Saudi Arabia, inflation targeting offers better performances. We observe the opposite in Gabon, Kuwait, Oman, and Venezuela. Such results are consistent with economic theory. Indeed, we see that in more open economies and smaller countries (in terms of economic size), the exchange rate rule is preferable to inflation rule. Venezuela seems an exception. Such country does not fulfill the traditional criteria favoring the choice of the exchange rule. In fact, this exception is only apparent. First, if we consider the volatility, we see that Venezuela is among the most volatile economy. Second, Venezuela suffers from a fiscal dominance effect: both inflation rate and fiscal deficit are the highest relative to other studied countries.
Inflation Targeting And Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries
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Author : Mr.Marco Airaudo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-03-08
Inflation Targeting And Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries written by Mr.Marco Airaudo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.
We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy where macroeconomic fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank leans heavily against the wind in a managed float.
International Dimensions Of Monetary Policy
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Author : Jordi Galí
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2010-03-15
International Dimensions Of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-03-15 with Business & Economics categories.
United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
The Distributional Implications Of The Impact Of Fuel Price Increases On Inflation
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Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-11-12
The Distributional Implications Of The Impact Of Fuel Price Increases On Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-11-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.