Exchange Rate Management And Crisis Susceptibility

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Exchange Rate Management And Crisis Susceptibility

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Author : Mr.Atish R. Ghosh
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-01-24

Exchange Rate Management And Crisis Susceptibility written by Mr.Atish R. Ghosh and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-24 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper revisits the bipolar prescription for exchange rate regime choice and asks two questions: are the poles of hard pegs and pure floats still safer than the middle? And where to draw the line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes? Our findings, based on a sample of 50 EMEs over 1980-2011, show that macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities are significantly greater under less flexible intermediate regimes—including hard pegs—as compared to floats. While not especially susceptible to banking or currency crises, hard pegs are significantly more prone to growth collapses, suggesting that the security of the hard end of the prescription is largely illusory. Intermediate regimes as a class are the most susceptible to crises, but “managed floats”—a subclass within such regimes—behave much more like pure floats, with significantly lower risks and fewer crises. “Managed floating,” however, is a nebulous concept; a characterization of more crisis prone regimes suggests no simple dividing line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes.

Perspectiveson The Recent Currency Crisis Literature

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Author : Mr.Robert P. Flood
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1998-09-01

Perspectiveson The Recent Currency Crisis Literature written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-09-01 with Business & Economics categories.

In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico, and Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates and have prompted researchers to undertake new theoretical and empirical analysis of these events. This paper provides some perspective on this work and relates it to earlier research. It derives the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and proposes a common framework for analyzing currency crises. This framework stresses the important role of speculators and recognizes that the government’s commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. The final section finds that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods.

Exchange Rate Management And Crisis Susceptibility

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Author : Mr.Atish R. Ghosh
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-01-24

Exchange Rate Management And Crisis Susceptibility written by Mr.Atish R. Ghosh and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-24 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper revisits the bipolar prescription for exchange rate regime choice and asks two questions: are the poles of hard pegs and pure floats still safer than the middle? And where to draw the line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes? Our findings, based on a sample of 50 EMEs over 1980-2011, show that macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities are significantly greater under less flexible intermediate regimes—including hard pegs—as compared to floats. While not especially susceptible to banking or currency crises, hard pegs are significantly more prone to growth collapses, suggesting that the security of the hard end of the prescription is largely illusory. Intermediate regimes as a class are the most susceptible to crises, but “managed floats”—a subclass within such regimes—behave much more like pure floats, with significantly lower risks and fewer crises. “Managed floating,” however, is a nebulous concept; a characterization of more crisis prone regimes suggests no simple dividing line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes.

Are Pegged And Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone

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Author : Mr.Andrea Bubula
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-11-01

Are Pegged And Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone written by Mr.Andrea Bubula and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper provides evidence on the susceptibility of different types of exchange rate regimes to currency crises during 1990-2001. It explores the incidence of crises, identified as episodes of severe exchange market pressure, to seek evidence on whether pegged regimes are more crisis prone than floating regimes and on whether certain types of pegged regimes are more crisis prone than others. The paper finds that pegged regimes, as a whole, have been characterized by a higher incidence of crises than floating regimes, for countries that are more integrated with international capital markets; and that intermediate regimes (mainly soft pegs and tightly-managed floating regimes) have been more crisis prone than both hard pegs and other floating regimes-a view consistent with the bipolar view of exchange rate regimes. The degree of crisis proneness seems to be broadly similar across different types of intermediate regimes.

Managing Currency Crises In Emerging Markets

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Author : Michael P. Dooley
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2007-11-01

Managing Currency Crises In Emerging Markets written by Michael P. Dooley and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.

The management of financial crises in emerging markets is a vital and high-stakes challenge in an increasingly global economy. For this reason, it's also a highly contentious issue in today's public policy circles. In this book, leading economists-many of whom have also participated in policy debates on these issues-consider how best to reduce the frequency and cost of such crises. The contributions here explore the management process from the beginning of a crisis to the long-term effects of the techniques used to minimize it. The first three chapters focus on the earliest responses and the immediate defense of a currency under attack, exploring whether unnecessary damage to economies can be avoided by adopting the right response within the first few days of a financial crisis. Next, contributors examine the adjustment programs that follow, considering how to design these programs so that they shorten the recovery phase, encourage economic growth, and minimize the probability of future difficulties. Finally, the last four papers analyze the actual effects of adjustment programs, asking whether they accomplish what they are designed to do-and whether, as many critics assert, they impose disproportionate costs on the poorest members of society. Recent high-profile currency crises have proven not only how harmful they can be to neighboring economies and trading partners, but also how important policy responses can be in determining their duration and severity. Economists and policymakers will welcome the insightful evaluations in this important volume, and those of its companion, Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey A. Frankel's Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets.

Monetary And Exchange Rate Systems

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Author : Louis-Philippe Rochon
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2006-01-01

Monetary And Exchange Rate Systems written by Louis-Philippe Rochon and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.

Combining critical perspectives with a positive contribution to economic policy, both national and international, this book considers the causes and consequences of recent financial crises presenting cutting-edge material.

Exchange Rate Management In Theory And Practice

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Author : Victor E. Argy
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1982

Exchange Rate Management In Theory And Practice written by Victor E. Argy and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1982 with Foreign exchange administration categories.

Exchange Rate Crises In Developing Countries

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Author : Michael G. Hall
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2018-01-18

Exchange Rate Crises In Developing Countries written by Michael G. Hall and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-01-18 with Political Science categories.

According to many economists, the increasing mobility of capital across borders has made it more costly to peg exchange rates. This phenomenon has contributed to some of the more famous examples of exchange rate crises in recent times, such as the Mexican peso crisis in 1994 and the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Yet despite the increasing costs of pegging in today's accelerated financial markets, some developing countries try to maintain a peg for as long as they can. This work is the first to theorize the role of bankers as a domestic interest group involved in exchange rate policy. It adds to our understanding of how interest groups affect economic policy in developing countries and explains why some of the largest and fastest growing economies in the developing world were the most prone to crisis. The volume also refines our understanding of the 'hollowing-out thesis', the argument that increasing capital mobility is forcing states to abandon pegging.

Leading Indicators Of Currency Crises

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Author : Graciela Laura Kaminsky
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1997-07-01

Leading Indicators Of Currency Crises written by Graciela Laura Kaminsky and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-07-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.

Moving To A Flexible Exchange Rate

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Author : Mrs.Gilda Fernandez
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2006-01-09

Moving To A Flexible Exchange Rate written by Mrs.Gilda Fernandez and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-01-09 with Business & Economics categories.

A growing number of countries are adopting flexible exchange rate regimes because flexibility offers more protection against external shocks and greater monetary independence. Other countries have made the transition under disorderly conditions, with the sharp depreciation of their currency during a crisis. Regardless of the reason for adopting a flexible exchange rate, a successful transition depends on the effective management of a number of institutional and operational issues. The authors of this Economic Issue describe the necessary ingredients for moving to a flexible regime, as well as the optimal pace and sequencing under different conditions.