Exchange Rate Volatility And Misalignment
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Exchange Rate Volatility And Misalignment
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Author : Jacob A. Frenkel
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1989
Exchange Rate Volatility And Misalignment written by Jacob A. Frenkel and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989 with Economic policy categories.
In this paper, we analyze several proposals for reducing the volatility and/or misalignment of key-currency exchange rates. The proposals examined are a system of target zones, the imposition of controls or taxes on international capital flows, and a strengthening of international coordination over economic policies. We also review key characteristics of the behavior of major-currency exchange rates over the period of floating rates and examine the various criteria or standards for drawing inferences about excess volatility and misalignment. In evaluating exchange rate volatility, attention is directed toward the influence of the exchange rate regime, to the behavior of fundamentals, to the volatility of both goods prices and other asset prices, to the costs of exchange rate volatility, and to the nature of shocks facing the economy. Turning to misalignment, we examine the strengths and weaknesses of the purchasing-power-parity approach, of the underlying balance approach, and of the sustainability approach. We argue that inferences about excess exchange rate volatility and misalignment are subject to wide margins of error and that the exchange rate experience of the past 15 years is subject to multiple interpretations.
Exchange Rate Volatility And Misalignment
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Author : Jacob A. Frenkel
language : es
Publisher:
Release Date : 1989
Exchange Rate Volatility And Misalignment written by Jacob A. Frenkel and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989 with categories.
Misalignment Of Exchange Rates
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Author : Richard C. Marston
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2008-04-15
Misalignment Of Exchange Rates written by Richard C. Marston and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-04-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Economists writing on flexible exchange rates in the 1960s foresaw neither the magnitude nor the persistence of the changes in real exchange rates that have occurred in the last fifteen years. Unexpectedly large movements in relative prices have lead to sharp changes in exports and imports, disrupting normal trading relations and causing shifts in employment and output. Many of the largest changes are not equilibrium adjustments to real disturbances but represent instead sustained departures from long-run equilibrium levels, with real exchange rates remaining "misaligned" for years at a time. Contributors to Misalignment of Exchange Rates address a series of questions about misalignment. Several papers investigate the causes of misalignment and the extent to which observed movements in real exchange rates can be attributed to misalignment. These studies are conducted both empirically, through the experiences of the United States, Great Britain, Japan, and the countries of the European Monetary System, and theoretically, through models of imperfect competition. Attention is then turned to the effects of misalignment, especially on employment and production, and to detailed estimates of the effects of changes in exchange rates on several industries, including the U.S. auto industry. In response to the contention that there is significant "hysteresis" in the adjustment of employment and production to changes in exchange rates, contributors also attempt to determine whether the effects of misalignment can be reversed once exchange rates return to earlier levels. Finally, the issue of how to avoid—or at least control—misalignment through macroeconomic policy is confronted.
Exchange Rate Misalignment
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Author : Lawrence E. Hinkle
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 1999
Exchange Rate Misalignment written by Lawrence E. Hinkle and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Business & Economics categories.
The study cautiously identifies exchange rate misalignment as an important element in most of the exchange rate crises that plagued the developing world during the last decade. Given that the increasing integration of world capital markets, has escalated the costs of such crises, a broad consensus emerged in recent years, that the overriding objective of exchange rate policy in developing countries, should be to avoid episodes of prolonged, and substantial misalignment, i.e., situations in which the actual real exchange rate differs significantly from its long-run equilibrium value. It was the Bank's involvement in one such misalignment episode, that eventually led to this book. Following an overview on the concepts and measurement of exchange rate misalignment, its impact on the purchasing power parity, and the relationship between the external real exchange rate (RER), and the two-good internal RER for tradables non-tradables, the study presents methodologies - empirical applications - for estimating the RER equilibrium. The study reaches an optimistic conclusion - that enough is known to identify cases of misalignment, and be able to sound clear warning signals. The implication for exchange rate policy is that ignorance about the empirical value of the equilibrium exchange rate, cannot be used to clinch arguments for extreme exchange arrangements, such as clean floats, currency boards, and "dollarization."
The Effect Of Exchange Rate Misalignment And Volatility On Malaysian Import Flows
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Author : N. A. M. Naseem
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
The Effect Of Exchange Rate Misalignment And Volatility On Malaysian Import Flows written by N. A. M. Naseem and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Commerce categories.
Real Exchange Rate Misalignments And Growth
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Author : Ofair Razin
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1997
Real Exchange Rate Misalignments And Growth written by Ofair Razin and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Economic development categories.
Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment is now a standard concept in international macroeconomic theory and policy. However, there is neither a consensus indicator of misalignment, nor an agreed upon methodology for constructing such an indicator. This paper constructs an indicator of RER misalignment for a large sample of developed and developing countries. This indicator is based on a well-structured but simple extension of an IS-LM model of an open economy. The paper then uses regression analysis to explore whether RER misalignments are related to country growth experiences. Interestingly the work finds that there are important non-linearities in the relationship. Only very high over-valuations" appear to be associated with slower economic growth, while moderate to high (but not very high) under-valuations appear to be associated with more rapid economic growth.
Trade And Investment Performance Under Floating Exchange Rates
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1988-05-03
Trade And Investment Performance Under Floating Exchange Rates written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988-05-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Contrary to the arguments of several scholars, we have failed to find either a conclusive theoretical case or clear empirical evidence of an effect, harmful or otherwise, of exchange rate variability (as measured by either short-term volatility or long-run misalignment) on overall levels of international trade. In this paper, after reviewing the theories and evidence on this issue, we go on to consider the impact of exchange rate variability on direct foreign investment. We summarize and amplify upon the scant theoretical literature of this issue, and proceed to test U.S. data for the presence of such an impact. We find none.
Exchange Rate Misalignment In Developing Countries
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Author : Sebastian Edwards
language : en
Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press
Release Date : 1988
Exchange Rate Misalignment In Developing Countries written by Sebastian Edwards and has been published by Johns Hopkins University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988 with Business & Economics categories.
This article analyzes the theory of equilibrium real exchange rates and defines misalignment as a deviation of the real exchange rate (RER) from its equilibrium level. The role of macroeconomic policies is then analyzed under three alternative nominal exchange rate regimes: predetermined nominal exchange rates; floating nominal rates; and dual or black market nominal exchange rates. This discussion points out how inconsistent macroeconomic policies often lead to real exchange rate misalignment. Corrective measures, including nominal devaluation and several alternative approaches, are then evaluated.
When And Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease And Growth
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-12-01
When And Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease And Growth written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.
Exchange Rates Policy And Productivity
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Author : Ibrahima Amadou Diallo
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Exchange Rates Policy And Productivity written by Ibrahima Amadou Diallo and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
This dissertation investigates how the real effective exchange rate (REER) and its associated asurements (REER volatility and REER misalignment) affect total factor productivity growth (TFPG). It also analyzes the channels through which the REER and its associated measurements act on total factor productivity (TFP). The first part studies how the REER itself, on the one hand, and the REER volatility, on the other hand, influence productivity. An analysis of the link between the level of REER and TFP in chapter 1 reveals that an exchange rate appreciation causes an increase of TFP. But this impact is also nonlinear: below the threshold, real exchange rate influences negatively productivity while above the threshold it acts positively. The results of chapter 2 illustrate that REER volatility affects negatively TFPG. We also found that REER volatility acts on TFP according to the level of financial development. For moderately financially developed countries, REER volatility reacts negatively on productivity and has no effect on productivity for very low and very high levels of financial development. The second part examines the channels through which the REER and its associated measurements influence productivity. The results of chapter 3 illustrate that the exchange rate volatility has a strong negative impact on investment. This outcome is robust in low income and middle income countries, and by using an alternative measurement of exchange rate volatility. Chapter 4 show that both real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange rate volatility affect negatively exports. It also demonstrates that real exchange rate volatility is more harmful to exports than misalignment. These outcomes are corroborated by estimations on subsamples of Low- ncome and Middle-Income countries.