Failure Prediction And Availability Based Maintenance Planning Of Gas Transmission Pipelines
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Failure Prediction And Availability Based Maintenance Planning Of Gas Transmission Pipelines
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Author : Kimiya Zakikhani
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Failure Prediction And Availability Based Maintenance Planning Of Gas Transmission Pipelines written by Kimiya Zakikhani and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with categories.
As the most frequent failure source, external corrosion has led to more than 1700 failures in gas transmission pipelines in US since 1996, causing a property damage of approximately $189M. Such numbers highlight the importance of maintaining gas transmission pipelines in safe conditions to postpone corrosion failures. As the most widely applied method of corrosion monitoring technique, in-line inspection is expensive and time-consuming due to requiring high frequencies. On the other hand, the recent efforts directed towards developing failure prediction or maintenance planning models for oil and gas pipelines seem to have some limitations. As such, most of the failure prediction models are based on limited number of inspection or historical records or are limited in application due to their subjectivity. Furthermore, in the domain of maintenance planning, the current procedures are merely based on considering the associated costs and safety thresholds in the decision-making process. Such methodologies do not address the importance of pipeline availability and continuation of operation as a critical asset in the selection of the maintenance strategy. This research has two main objectives. As the first objective, the proposed research aims to develop historical data-based failure prediction models for gas transmission pipelines by considering geo-environmental features. As the second objective, this research aims to propose a reliability-centered availability-based maintenance planning framework that considers the criticality of pipeline operation. For these objectives, a detailed literature review was carried out on current methodologies to predict failures in oil and gas pipelines and maintain them. As the most important limitations, current failure prediction models do not consider geographical and environmental properties of pipelines to predict failures. On the other hand, in maintenance planning scope, none of current practices highlight importance of pipeline operation and availability in making the proper decision. In addition, these methodologies are often subjective, i.e. they are merely applicable to limited pipelines. To overcome these limitations the mentioned objectives of this research were defined and failure and maintenance data were collected from accessible historical records and reports. The failure prediction models were developed from best-subset and multiple regression analyses on the historical failure data and were then validated. On the other hand, the maintenance planning framework was developed from a coupled cost and availability-based maintenance planning procedure on different maintenance scenarios. For each scenario, a discrete event simulation was carried out through MATLAB programming. Such simulation was performed on the pipeline reliability profile obtained from a Monte Carlo simulation and consideration of improvement in availability per unit cost as the decision criteria. Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to consider wide range of design parameters for development of the reliability profile. The developed failure prediction models were able to satisfactory predict time of corrosion failures in gas transmission pipelines for Great Plains and South East Regions of the U.S. These models were validated with mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.12 and 0.04, for Great Plains, and 0.11 and 0.07, for South East regional classifications, respectively. The proposed maintenance planning framework reveals that for a case study of a 24-inch pipeline, considering an availability-cost indicator, the second maintenance scenario, with interventions at the service life of 30.1 and 40.5 years is more effective. This order is followed by the first scenario with interventions at service life of 33.3 and 42.2 years, and finally the third scenario with intervention at service life of 24.2 years, respectively. The developed failure prediction models can assist decision makers and pipeline operators to predict the expected time of corrosion failure in gas transmission pipelines in the selected regions by considering geo-environmental and pipeline design parameters. In addition, for maintenance planning of oil and gas pipelines, this research proposes a novel methodology that considers oil and gas pipelines as critical assets for which continued operation is of high importance. Such consideration provides a compensation between the costs incurred and pipeline availability to avoid over/under maintenance.
Risk Based Maintenance Planning Model For Oil And Gas Pipelines
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Author : Laya Parvizsedghy
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Risk Based Maintenance Planning Model For Oil And Gas Pipelines written by Laya Parvizsedghy and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
Oil and gas pipelines are the main means of transporting fossil fuels from the wellheads and processing facilities to the distribution centers. The 2013 US infrastructure report card assigned a grade of D+ to energy pipelines signifying they are in a poor condition. More than 10,000 incidents were reported on oil and gas pipelines during the last two decades, most of which resulted in considerable consequences. Recent failures and ruptures have raised concerns over the risk of failure of such pipes in Canada. The main objective of this research is to develop a risk-based maintenance planning model for oil and gas pipelines. The research develops a probability of failure (POF) and a consequence of failure (COF) prediction model and establishes a risk-based inspection and simulation-based rehabilitation planning models. The POF model develops a comprehensive index by applying the granular theory of uncertainty and the principles of probability theory to forecast the POF of oil and gas pipes. The neuro-fuzzy technique is employed to develop a model that forecasts the financial consequences of the potential failures of such pipes. An integrated fuzzy risk evaluation model is developed with 25 fuzzy rules to assess a pipeline’s risk index. A fuzzy expert system is developed to select the inspection tools and determine their run-frequency according to the failure risk of a pipeline. Regression analysis is applied to develop a risk growth profile to forecast the maximum failure risk of various inspection scenarios. Scenarios are ranked based on their risk-cost index, which integrates two main indices: 1) maximum risk of failure, and 2) life cycle cost of scenarios, computed by applying the Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, a comprehensive maintenance model proposes the optimum maintenance plans with the lowest LCC, developing a third-degree risk-based deterioration profile of the pipelines. The POF model’s sensitivity results highlight that cathodic protection effectiveness and soil resistivity are the leading causes of external corrosion failures, while the depth of cover is an important factor of mechanical damages. The COF model attests that diameter, as well as the location properties are important factors for estimating the financial consequences. The developed risk assessment model is validated using a test dataset that proved the models are accurate with about 80% validity. The developed models are applied on a case study of a 24-inch pipe. The POF and COF of the pipe are computed, and the results suggest that the pipe’s risk index is above medium with an average index of 3.5. The study proposes the application of an inspection tool, which decreases the risk growth by 50% during the service life of the pipeline. The application of the maintenance planning model proposes a combination of recoat, repair, and replacement with a medium size of rehabilitation. The net present value of the proposed scenario of maintenance is estimated to cost around 1.7 million dollars over the life cycle of the pipeline, compared to the last-ranked alternative that costs over three million dollars. This research offers a framework to develop a comprehensive index to predict the failure risk of pipes using historical data that can be extended to the other infrastructure types. It develops a model to plan for the optimal pipeline maintenance, and provides an overall image of its service life. The developed models will help the operators predict the risk of failure and plan appropriately for the life cycle of their oil and gas pipelines.
Statistical Modeling Of Corrosion Failures In Natural Gas Transmission Pipelines
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Author : Mustafa Murat Cobanoglu
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Statistical Modeling Of Corrosion Failures In Natural Gas Transmission Pipelines written by Mustafa Murat Cobanoglu and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.
Natural gas pipelines are a critical component of the U.S. energy infrastructure. The safety of these pipelines plays a key role for the gas industry. Therefore, the understanding of failure characteristics and their consequences are very important for designing future operations, operating expenditure, and maintenance decisions. The oil and gas industry spends billions of dollars annually for the corrosion-related cost of the transmission pipelines, the costs which increases due to aging and deterioration processes in pipeline networks. Therefore, pipeline operators need to rethink their corrosion prevention strategies. These results of corrosion failures are forcing the companies to develop accurate maintenance models based on failure frequency. Statistical methods for modeling pipeline failures and proper maintenance decisions play a key role in future safety of lines, to reduce the rate of occurrence of failures, and the cost-effective operation of pipelines. This thesis is focused on two challenges. The first challenge is to estimate the failure rate of natural gas transmission pipeline networks from the previous incidents' data in the United States. A specific objective of this part is to determine the characterization of the failure modes of the transmission pipelines, and to develop the statistical models based on the reliability of a repairable system. The second challenge is to develop the optimal preventive replacement actions by using well-developed optimization models. The objective of the second part is to choose appropriate maintenance policies based on the statistical models and to find the optimal maintenance policies. In this thesis, two of the most commonly applied stochastic models, which are the homogeneous Poisson process and the power law process, are used for the estimation of the failure rate. The point and interval estimators of the failure intensity function are provided and the accuracy of the stochastic models is tested for each determined failure mode. Finally, appropriate maintenance models will be presented for planning preventive maintenance and replacement activities for a repairable and maintainable system. It is assumed that pipeline systems could be restored to operation requirements by some minimal repair process instead of replacement after each failure. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/152566
Underground Pipeline Corrosion
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Author : Mark Orazem
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2014-02-17
Underground Pipeline Corrosion written by Mark Orazem and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-02-17 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Underground pipelines transporting liquid petroleum products and natural gas are critical components of civil infrastructure, making corrosion prevention an essential part of asset-protection strategy. Underground Pipeline Corrosion provides a basic understanding of the problems associated with corrosion detection and mitigation, and of the state of the art in corrosion prevention. The topics covered in part one include: basic principles for corrosion in underground pipelines, AC-induced corrosion of underground pipelines, significance of corrosion in onshore oil and gas pipelines, numerical simulations for cathodic protection of pipelines, and use of corrosion inhibitors in managing corrosion in underground pipelines. The methods described in part two for detecting corrosion in underground pipelines include: magnetic flux leakage, close interval potential surveys (CIS/CIPS), Pearson surveys, in-line inspection, and use of both electrochemical and optical probes. While the emphasis is on pipelines transporting fossil fuels, the concepts apply as well to metallic pipes for delivery of water and other liquids. Underground Pipeline Corrosion is a comprehensive resource for corrosion, materials, chemical, petroleum, and civil engineers constructing or managing both onshore and offshore pipeline assets; professionals in steel and coating companies; and academic researchers and professors with an interest in corrosion and pipeline engineering. Reviews the causes and considers the detection and prevention of corrosion to underground pipes Addresses a lack of current, readily available information on the subject Case studies demonstrate how corrosion is managed in the underground pipeline industry
Degradation Assessment And Failure Prevention Of Pipeline Systems
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Author : Gabriella Bolzon
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-09-10
Degradation Assessment And Failure Prevention Of Pipeline Systems written by Gabriella Bolzon and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-10 with Science categories.
This book presents the results of the research project G5055 'Development of novel methods for the prevention of pipeline failures with security implications,' carried out in the framework of the NATO Science for Peace and Security program, and explores the lifecycle assessment of gas infrastructures. Throughout their service lives, pipelines transporting hydrocarbons are exposed to demanding working conditions and aggressive media. In long-term service, material aging increases the risk of damage and failure, which can be accompanied by significant economic losses and severe environmental consequences. This book presents a selection of complementary contributions written by experts operating in the wider fields of pipeline integrity; taken together, they offer a comprehensive portrait of the latest developments in this technological area.
Risk Reliability And Safety Innovating Theory And Practice
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Author : Lesley Walls
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2016-11-25
Risk Reliability And Safety Innovating Theory And Practice written by Lesley Walls and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-25 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Risk, Reliability and Safety contains papers describing innovations in theory and practice contributed to the scientific programme of the European Safety and Reliability conference (ESREL 2016), held at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, Scotland (25—29 September 2016). Authors include scientists, academics, practitioners, regulators and other key individuals with expertise and experience relevant to specific areas. Papers include domain specific applications as well as general modelling methods. Papers cover evaluation of contemporary solutions, exploration of future challenges, and exposition of concepts, methods and processes. Topics include human factors, occupational health and safety, dynamic and systems reliability modelling, maintenance optimisation, uncertainty analysis, resilience assessment, risk and crisis management.
Failure Prediction Model For Oil Pipelines
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Author : Bassem Abdrabou
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Failure Prediction Model For Oil Pipelines written by Bassem Abdrabou and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
Abstract Failure Predicting Model for Oil Pipelines Bassem Abdrabou Oil and gas pipelines are considered the safest means to transport petroleum products comparing to railway and highway transportations. They transport millions of dollars{u2019} worth of goods every day. However, accidents happen every year and some of these accidents inflict catastrophic impact on the environment and result in great economic loss. In order to maintain safety of the pipelines, several inspection techniques have been developed in the last decades. Despite the accuracy of these techniques, they are very costly and time consuming. Similarly, several failure predicting and condition assessment models have been developed in the last decade; however, most of these models are limited to one type of failure, such as corrosion failure, or mainly depend on expert opinion which makes their output seemingly subjective. The present research develops an objective model of failure prediction for oil pipelines depending on the available historical data on pipelines' accidents. Two approaches were used to fulfill this objective: the artificial neural network (ANN) and the Multi Nomial Logit (MNL). The ANN is used to develop a model to predict failure due to mechanical, corrosion or third party, which collectively account for 88% of oil pipeline accidents. This model had a prediction accuracy of 68.5%. Another ANN model is developed to predict only corrosion or third party failure with a prediction accuracy of 72.2%. The Average Validity Percentage (AVP) for the two models is 73.7 and 72.8, respectively. The MNL approach is used to develop a model that predicts failures caused by mechanical, corrosion or third party elements with a prediction accuracy of 68.4% and Pseudo R Squared of 0.42. The Average Validity Percentage (AVP) for this MNL approach is 73.7%. This model also generates a probability equation for each type of failure. The three developed models show convincing results, since they are based on solid historical failure data for the last 38 years, with no subjectivity or ambiguity. These models could easily be used by oil pipeline operators to identify the type of failure threatening each pipeline so that appropriate preventive and corrective measures can be planned. The models also help to prioritize in-line inspection of different pipeline segments according to the predicted type of failure.
An Introduction To Predictive Maintenance
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Author : R. Keith Mobley
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2002-10-24
An Introduction To Predictive Maintenance written by R. Keith Mobley and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-10-24 with Science categories.
This second edition of An Introduction to Predictive Maintenance helps plant, process, maintenance and reliability managers and engineers to develop and implement a comprehensive maintenance management program, providing proven strategies for regularly monitoring critical process equipment and systems, predicting machine failures, and scheduling maintenance accordingly. Since the publication of the first edition in 1990, there have been many changes in both technology and methodology, including financial implications, the role of a maintenance organization, predictive maintenance techniques, various analyses, and maintenance of the program itself. This revision includes a complete update of the applicable chapters from the first edition as well as six additional chapters outlining the most recent information available. Having already been implemented and maintained successfully in hundreds of manufacturing and process plants worldwide, the practices detailed in this second edition of An Introduction to Predictive Maintenance will save plants and corporations, as well as U.S. industry as a whole, billions of dollars by minimizing unexpected equipment failures and its resultant high maintenance cost while increasing productivity. A comprehensive introduction to a system of monitoring critical industrial equipment Optimize the availability of process machinery and greatly reduce the cost of maintenance Provides the means to improve product quality, productivity and profitability of manufacturing and production plants
Degradation Assessment And Failure Prevention Of Pipeline Systems
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Author : Gabriella Bolzon
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Degradation Assessment And Failure Prevention Of Pipeline Systems written by Gabriella Bolzon and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with categories.
This book presents the results of the research project G5055 'Development of novel methods for the prevention of pipeline failures with security implications,' carried out in the framework of the NATO Science for Peace and Security program, and explores the lifecycle assessment of gas infrastructures. Throughout their service lives, pipelines transporting hydrocarbons are exposed to demanding working conditions and aggressive media. In long-term service, material aging increases the risk of damage and failure, which can be accompanied by significant economic losses and severe environmental consequences. This book presents a selection of complementary contributions written by experts operating in the wider fields of pipeline integrity; taken together, they offer a comprehensive portrait of the latest developments in this technological area.
Gas Abstracts
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994
Gas Abstracts written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Gas manufacture and works categories.