Faulty Predictions
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Faulty Predictions
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Author : Karin Lin-Greenberg
language : en
Publisher: University of Georgia Press
Release Date : 2014
Faulty Predictions written by Karin Lin-Greenberg and has been published by University of Georgia Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with Fiction categories.
Taking place in locales as diverse as small-town Ohio, the mountains of western North Carolina, and the plains of Kansas, Lin-Greenberg's stories provide insight into the human condition over a cross section of age and culture. Although the characters are often faced with challenges, the stories capture moments of optimism and hope.
Future Babble
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Author : Dan Gardner
language : en
Publisher: McClelland & Stewart
Release Date : 2010-10-12
Future Babble written by Dan Gardner and has been published by McClelland & Stewart this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10-12 with Social Science categories.
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Flawed Prophets
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Author : Tirthak Saha
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021-07-27
Flawed Prophets written by Tirthak Saha and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-07-27 with categories.
We love making predictions. We bet on sporting events; decide career paths; forecast stock prices; we do it all the time! Why are we so fascinated by the future? Why have we designed a society where predictive abilities are needed for everyday functioning? More importantly, if we must be prophets, how do we at least become better ones, devoid of biases and fatal cognitive flaws that hold us back from clearly seeing ahead? To see our future, we first need to take a look at our past.
What Are The Potential Causes Of Incorrect Predictions Of Tropical Cyclone Intensification In Medium Range Ensemble Forecasts
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Author : Nico Bauer
language : en
Publisher: diplom.de
Release Date : 2022-05-12
What Are The Potential Causes Of Incorrect Predictions Of Tropical Cyclone Intensification In Medium Range Ensemble Forecasts written by Nico Bauer and has been published by diplom.de this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-05-12 with Science categories.
Tropical cyclones (TC) are the most destructive weather phenomena in the world. These storm systems are common in large parts of highly populated tropics and subtropics with favorable atmospheric conditions. Society’s vulnerability to them and the associated annual economic costs have risen steadily: mean worldwide insured losses averaged 75 billion USD per year in the 10 years between 2009 and 2019. Cinco et al. (2016) analyzed TC data and observed that in the period from 1951 to 2013, an average of 19.4 TCs entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility in the Western North Pacific, and nine TCs moved over the islands. Consequently, the Philippines have the highest number of landfalling storms and the highest rate of severe TC worldwide. In turn, the TCs that move over the islands into the South China Sea frequently affect the coast of Vietnam. Through a spatial assessment of TC vulnerability, Nguyen et al. (2019) have demonstrated a high or very high susceptibility in most parts of coastal Vietnam. The most extreme event over the WNP in the last century was Typhoon Haiyan, which caused 6,300 deaths and widespread economic and socioeconomic damage. This significant susceptibility implies the high importance of improving weather forecast models for greater predictive capability. In recent decades, the quality of forecasting tropical cyclone tracks has increased steadily at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast and other numerical weather prediction centers. Nevertheless, intensity predictions still present more significant challenges.
The Signal And The Noise
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Author : Nate Silver
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2012-09-27
The Signal And The Noise written by Nate Silver and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-09-27 with Political Science categories.
"One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Region And Nation
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Author : James Brennan
language : en
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Release Date : 2003-01-30
Region And Nation written by James Brennan and has been published by Palgrave Macmillan this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-01-30 with Science categories.
The study of twentieth-century Argentine history is undergoing a radical transformation. Both Argentine and U.S. historians of Argentina are recasting the great debates in the historiography by challenging the Buenos Aires-centered focus of most of the existing historical scholarship and offering a new perspective on the country's modern history. Argentina's supposed 'exceptionalism' is being challenged by these historians. The persistence of political clientilism and oligarchic rule, enclave economies and pre-capitalist social relations, the role of traditional institutions such as the Church and family, intense class conflict and working class militancy, all approximate Argentina closer to the Latin American experience than the previous historiography would suggest. This book is a unique collaboration between Argentine and U.S. historians of this 'other Argentina.'
Divination
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Author : Dr Patrick Curry
language : en
Publisher: Ashgate Publishing, Ltd.
Release Date : 2013-06-28
Divination written by Dr Patrick Curry and has been published by Ashgate Publishing, Ltd. this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-28 with Religion categories.
Divination is any ritual and its associated tradition performed in order to ask a more-than-human intelligence for guidance. A universal human practice, it has received surprisingly little academic attention. This interdisciplinary collection by leading scholars in the field is dedicated to fascinating new insights into divination and oracles arising from recent work in anthropology, religious studies, history and classical studies. Central importance is given to the practical and theoretical perspectives of diviners as well as scholars of divination; several contributors are both. This book explores philosophical issues such as the nature of divinatory intelligence, the relationship between divinatory and metaphorical truth, the primacy of ontology over epistemology, the importance of reflexivity in scholarly studies of divination, and astrology as the principal Western form of divination. The ethnographic and historical examples range from contemporary Nigeria, urban Cuba, Mayan Guatemala and the shamanic cultures of the circumpolar Arctic to classical Greece and ancient Judea.
Fuzzy Logic Dynamics And Machine Prediction For Failure Analysis
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Author : Mushiri, Tawanda
language : en
Publisher: IGI Global
Release Date : 2018-01-12
Fuzzy Logic Dynamics And Machine Prediction For Failure Analysis written by Mushiri, Tawanda and has been published by IGI Global this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-01-12 with Computers categories.
In the fast pace of the modern world it is important, more than ever, for factories to know how and why their machines are failing and what can be done to prevent it. As such, it is imperative that new research is conducted to make sure that factories can operate as efficiently as possible. Fuzzy Logic Dynamics and Machine Prediction for Failure Analysis is an essential reference source for the newest research on the risk assessment matrix, ladder logic, and computerized maintenance management systems (CMMS). Featuring widespread coverage across a variety of related viewpoints and topics, such as the Ishikawa diagram, machinery failure analysis and troubleshooting, model reference adaptive control systems, and proportionalintegralderivative (PID) controllers, this book is ideally designed for professionals, upper-level students, and academics seeking current research on the implementation of fuzzy logic in machine prediction failure.
Future Babble
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Author : Daniel Gardner
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2011-03-17
Future Babble written by Daniel Gardner and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-03-17 with Psychology categories.
An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history. In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
100 Failed Predictions
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Author : Jakob Sjolander
language : en
Publisher: ISBN Sverige
Release Date : 2022-03-18
100 Failed Predictions written by Jakob Sjolander and has been published by ISBN Sverige this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-03-18 with categories.
We humans are an impatient species, and instead of just waiting around we constantly try to peek into the future. The result of these attempts has been, shall we say, less than perfect. As the title says, this book is a collection of 100 failed predictions, uttered by high and low and about everything between heaven and earth. Here the reader will learn how bright Iraq's future was in 1977, how little chance the iPhone would stand on the world market, how hundreds of millions would starve to death in the 1980s, how a certain "Usama bin Laden" was on the road to peace, how Communism would triumph, of how loyal American colonists were in the 1770s, and how the world would end on the 21st of March 1844. I predict you will enjoy the read. But I do not predict you will learn anything. For as this book show, we humans never learn.