Financial Conditions And Macroeconomic Performance
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Financial Conditions And Macroeconomic Performance
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Author : Steven M. Fazzari
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2015-06-05
Financial Conditions And Macroeconomic Performance written by Steven M. Fazzari and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-06-05 with Business & Economics categories.
This collection of papers on financial instability and its impact on macroeconomic performance honours Hyman P. Minsky and his lifelong work. It is based on a conference at Washington University, St. Louis, in 1990 and includes among the authors Benjamin M. Friedman, Charles P. Kindleberger, Jan Kregel and Steven Fazzari. These papers consider Minsky's definitive analysis that yields such a clear and disturbing sequence of financial events: booms, government intervention to prevent debt contraction and new booms that cause a progressive buildup of new debt, eventually leaving the economy much more fragile financially.
Incorporating Macro Financial Linkages Into Forecasts Using Financial Conditions Indices The Case Of France
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Author : Ms.Piyabha Kongsamut
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-12-01
Incorporating Macro Financial Linkages Into Forecasts Using Financial Conditions Indices The Case Of France written by Ms.Piyabha Kongsamut and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
How can information on financial conditions be used to better understand macroeconomic developments and improve macroeconomic projections? We investigate this question for France by constructing country-specific financial conditions indices (FCIs) that are tailored to movements in GDP, investment, private consumption and exports respectively. We rely on a VAR approach to estimate the weights of the financial components of each FCI, including equity market returns (which turn out having a relatively strong weight across all FCIs), private sector risk premiums, long-term interest rates, and banks’ credit standards. We find that the tailored FCIs are useful as leading indicators of GDP, investment, and exports, and as a contemporaneous indicator of private consumption. Credit volumes turn out to be lagging indicators of growth. The indices inform us on macro-financial linkages in France and are used to improve the accuracy of quarterly forecasting models and high-frequency “nowcast” models. We show that FCI-augmented models could have significantly improved forecasts during and after the global financial crisis.
Non Performing Loans In Cesee
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Author : Nir Klein
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-03-20
Non Performing Loans In Cesee written by Nir Klein and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-20 with Business & Economics categories.
The paper investigates the non-performing loans (NPLs) in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE) in the period of 1998–2011. The paper finds that the level of NPLs can be attributed to both macroeconomic conditions and banks’ specific factors, though the latter set of factors was found to have a relatively low explanatory power. The examination of the feedback effects broadly confirms the strong macro-financial linkages in the region. While NPLs were found to respond to macroeconomic conditions, such as GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation, the analysis also indicates that there are strong feedback effects from the banking system to the real economy, thus suggesting that the high NPLs that many CESEE countries currently face adversely affect the pace economic recovery.
A Financial Conditions Index For South Africa
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Author : Mr.Nombulelo Gumata
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-08-01
A Financial Conditions Index For South Africa written by Mr.Nombulelo Gumata and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-08-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The main purpose of this paper is to construct a financial conditions index (FCI) for South Africa. The analysis extracts the index by applying two alternative approaches (principal component analysis and Kalman filter), which identify an unobservable common factor from a group of external and domestic financial indicators. The alternative estimated FCIs, which share a similar trajectory over time, seem to have a powerful predictive information for the near-term GDP growth (up to four quarters), and they outperform the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) leading indicator as well as individual financial variables. Their recent dynamics suggest that following a strong recovery in late-2009 and 2010, reflecting in part domestic factors such as systematic reductions in the policy rate, the rebound in real economic activity, and a benign inflationary environment, the financial conditions have deteriorated in recent months, though not as sharply as in end-2008. Given their relatively high predictive power regarding GDP growth, a further deterioration may imply that economic activity is likely to slow in the period ahead.
Financial Globalization And Monetary Policy
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Author : Steven B. Kamin
language : en
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Release Date : 2011-05
Financial Globalization And Monetary Policy written by Steven B. Kamin and has been published by DIANE Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Reviews the available evidence and previous research on potential effects of financial globalization, that is, the international integration of financial markets. Central banks with floating currencies retain the ability to independently determine short-term interest rates and thus influence broader financial conditions and macro-economic performance in their economies. However, domestic financial conditions appear to have become more vulnerable to a wide range of external shocks, complicating the task of making appropriate monetary policy decisions. Moreover, the financial crisis has highlighted the importance of cross-border channels for the transmission of liquidity and credit shocks. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand report.
Financial Conditions Indexes For The United States And Euro Area
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Author : Troy Matheson
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-04-01
Financial Conditions Indexes For The United States And Euro Area written by Troy Matheson and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Financial conditions indexes are developed for the United States and euro area using a wide range of financial indicators and a dynamic factor model. The financial conditions indexes are shown to be useful for forecasting economic activity and have good revision properties.
Financial Markets And Economic Performance
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Author : John E. Silvia
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-07-31
Financial Markets And Economic Performance written by John E. Silvia and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-07-31 with Business & Economics categories.
Effective decision making requires understanding of the underlying principles of financial markets and economics. Intellectually, economics and financial markets are genetically intertwined although when it comes to popular commentary they are treated separately. In fact, academic economic thinking appears separate from financial market equity strategy in most financial market commentary. Historically, macroeconomics tended to assume away financial frictions and financial intermediation whereas financial economists did not necessarily consider the negative macroeconomic spill overs from financial market outcomes. In more recent years, the economic discipline has gone through a serious self-reflection after the global crisis. This book explores the interplay between financial markets and macroeconomic outcomes with a conceptual framework that combines the actions of investors and individuals. Of interest to graduate students and those professionals working in the financial markets, it provides insight into why market prices move and credit markets interact and what factors participants and policy makers can monitor to anticipate market change and future price paths.
A Financial Conditions Index For Poland
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Author : Giang Ho
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-12-19
A Financial Conditions Index For Poland written by Giang Ho and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper constructs a financial conditions index for Poland to explore the link between financial conditions and real economic activity. The index in constructed by applying two complementary approaches—factor analysis and vector auto-regression approach. We evaluate the index’s forecasting performance against a composite leading indicator developed by the OECD. We found that the FCI is highly correlated with GDP growth, attesting to the importance of financial sector in Poland’s economy. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting exercises indicate that the FCI can outperform the CLI in predicting near-term GDP growth.
Incorporating Macro Financial Linkages Into Forecasts Using Financial Conditions Indices
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Author : Piyabha Kongsamut
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Incorporating Macro Financial Linkages Into Forecasts Using Financial Conditions Indices written by Piyabha Kongsamut and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
How can information on financial conditions be used to better understand macroeconomic developments and improve macroeconomic projections? We investigate this question for France by constructing country-specific financial conditions indices (FCIs) that are tailored to movements in GDP, investment, private consumption and exports respectively. We rely on a VAR approach to estimate the weights of the financial components of each FCI, including equity market returns (which turn out having a relatively strong weight across all FCIs), private sector risk premiums, long-term interest rates, and banks’ credit standards. We find that the tailored FCIs are useful as leading indicators of GDP, investment, and exports, and as a contemporaneous indicator of private consumption. Credit volumes turn out to be lagging indicators of growth. The indices inform us on macro-financial linkages in France and are used to improve the accuracy of quarterly forecasting models and high-frequency “nowcast” models. We show that FCI-augmented models ould have significantly improved forecasts during and after the global financial crisis.
Financial Globalization And Monetary Policy
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Author : Steven B. Kamin
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Financial Globalization And Monetary Policy written by Steven B. Kamin and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.
This paper reviews the available evidence and previous research on potential effects of financial globalization, that is, the international integration of financial markets. In particular, we address the questions: Has financial globalization materially increased the influence of external developments on domestic monetary conditions? And, has it reduced the influence of central banks over financial and economic conditions in their own country? We find that central banks with floating currencies retain the ability to independently determine short-term interest rates and thus influence broader financial conditions and macroeconomic performance in their economies. However, domestic financial conditions appear to have become more vulnerable to a wide range of external shocks, complicating the task of making appropriate monetary policy decisions. Moreover, the financial crisis has highlighted the importance of cross-border channels for the transmission of liquidity and credit shocks. With financial transactions increasingly being undertaken in vehicle currencies such as dollars and euros, the liquidity provision and the lender-of-last resort functions of many central banks are being challenged. Accordingly, international arrangements for liquidity provision may become increasingly important in the future.