Fiscal Limits And Monetary Policy
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Fiscal Limits And Monetary Policy
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Author : Eric Michael Leeper
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Fiscal Limits And Monetary Policy written by Eric Michael Leeper and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Economics categories.
Every economy faces a "fiscal limit" that delivers the maximum government debt-GDP ratio that can be sustained without appreciable risk of default or higher inflation. But governments in advanced economies issue substantial nominal debt and nominal debt is a commitment to repay in nominal units. When such economies are approaching their fiscal limits, debt can be devalued through higher current and future inflation rates. The paper develops a simple bond market supply-demand apparatus to explain how fiscal policy can be a source of inflation, while monetary policy merely determines the timing of inflation.
Fiscal Limits And Monetary Policy
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Author : Anna Sokolova
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Fiscal Limits And Monetary Policy written by Anna Sokolova and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
In times of fiscal stress, governments fail to adjust fiscal policy in line with the requirements for debt sustainability. Under these circumstances, monetary policy impacts the probability of sovereign default alongside inflation dynamics. Uribe (2006) studies the relationship between inflation and sovereign defaults with a model in which the central bank controls a risky interest rate. He concludes that low inflation can only be maintained if the government sometimes defaults. This paper follows Uribe (2006) by examining monetary policy that controls a risky interest rate. However, it differs by the baseline assumption about the objectives of the central bank. In this paper, monetary policy is not pure inflation targeting: it is assumed that the central bank minimizes the probability of default under the upper restriction on inflation. An advantage of this framework is that it avoids the issue of zero risk premium, which exists in Uribe (2006), while at the same time allowing a study of the relationship between the constraints on monetary policy, the equilibrium default rate, and the risk premium. We show that monetary policy that controls the risky interest rate can mitigate default risks only when the upper limit on inflation is sufficiently high. The higher the agents believe the upper limit on inflation to be, the lower the equilibrium risk premium and probability of default are. Under a low default rate, constraints on inflation can only be fulfilled when fiscal shocks are either positive or small.
Dynamic Fiscal Limits And Monetary Fiscal Policy Interactions
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Dynamic Fiscal Limits And Monetary Fiscal Policy Interactions written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
This paper analyzes the impact of monetary policy on public debt sustainability through the lens of a general equilibrium model with fiscal limits. We find that the mere possibility of a binding ZLB may have detrimental effects on debt sustainability, as a kink in the Laffer curve induces a dead-weight loss in the present discounted value of future primary surpluses. Moreover, debt sustainability improves with monetary policy activeness, that is, with the elasticity of the interest rate to changes in inflation and the output gap. On this basis, we assess the trade-off between economic stabilization and debt sustainability depending on the monetary policy environment. In normal times, large public spending shocks may engender perverse debt dynamics and cause economic contractions. At the ZLB, a muted trade-off between stabilization and sustainability instead expands the fiscal margin, especially if coupled with a commitment to a more active monetary policy during normal times.
Fiscal Limits External Debt And Fiscal Policy In Developing Countries
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Author : Huixin Bi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-04-01
Fiscal Limits External Debt And Fiscal Policy In Developing Countries written by Huixin Bi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper studies fiscal policy effects in developing countries with external debt and sovereign default risks. State-dependent distributions of fiscal limits are simulated based on macroeconomic uncertainty and fiscal policy specifications. The analysis shows that expected future revenue plays an important role in the low fiscal limits of developing countries, relative to those of developed countries. External debt carries additional risks since large devaluation of the real exchange rate can suddenly raise default probabilities. Consistent with majority views, fiscal consolidations are counterproductive in the short and medium runs. When an economy approaches its fiscal limits, government spending can be less expansionary than in a low-debt state. As more revenue is required to service debt in a high-debt state, higher tax rates raise the economic cost of increasing consumption, reducing the fiscal multiplier.
Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail Volume 1
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Author : John J. Heim
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-04-20
Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail Volume 1 written by John J. Heim and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-04-20 with Business & Economics categories.
This book offers a series of statistical tests to determine if the “crowd out” problem, known to hinder the effectiveness of Keynesian economic stimulus programs, can be overcome by monetary programs. It concludes there are programs that can do this, specifically “accommodative monetary policy.” They were not used to any great extent prior to the Quantitative Easing program in 2008, causing the failure of many fiscal stimulus programs through no fault of their own. The book includes exhaustive statistical tests to prove this point. There is also a policy analysis section of the book. It examines how effectively the Federal Reserve’s anti-crowd out programs have actually worked, to the extent they were undertaken at all. It finds statistical evidence that using commercial and savings banks instead of investment banks when implementing accommodating monetary policy would have markedly improved their effectiveness. This volume, with its companion volume Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 2: Statistical Tests Comparing Monetary Policy to Growth, provides 1000 separate statistical tests on the US economy to prove these assertions.
Optimal Fiscal And Monetary Policy Debt Crisis And Management
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Author : Mr.Cristiano Cantore
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-03-30
Optimal Fiscal And Monetary Policy Debt Crisis And Management written by Mr.Cristiano Cantore and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-03-30 with Business & Economics categories.
The initial government debt-to-GDP ratio and the government’s commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GPD ratios, the optimal consolidation is very slow. A faster pace is optimal when the economy starts from a high level of public debt implying high sovereign risk premia, unless these are suppressed via a bailout by official creditors. Under discretion, the cost of not being able to commit is reflected into a quick consolidation of government debt. Simple monetary-fiscal rules with passive fiscal policy, designed for an environment with “normal shocks”, perform reasonably well in mimicking the Ramsey-optimal response to one-off government debt shocks. When the government can issue also long-term bonds–under commitment–the optimal debt consolidation pace is slower than in the case of short-term bonds only, and entails an increase in the ratio between long and short-term bonds.
Coordination Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1998-03-01
Coordination Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.
Limits Of Fiscal Monetary And Trade Policies The International Comparisons And Solutions
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Author : Jonathan Edward Leightner
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2014-09-05
Limits Of Fiscal Monetary And Trade Policies The International Comparisons And Solutions written by Jonathan Edward Leightner and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-09-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Sixteen countries across the world — including the United States and many European nations — have fallen into economic crises since the late 1990s. In The Limits of Fiscal, Monetary, and Trade Policies: International Comparisons and Solutions, Jonathan E Leightner convincingly argues that the fundamental cause of the global malaise is a surplus of savings. He provides compelling evidence (via statistical estimates) that fiscal, monetary, and trade policies cannot solve the resulting problems since their effectiveness has plummeted. Leightner also shows that the solution to the current global economic woes is a “consumption driven growth model” (which China advocates but has yet to fully implement) because when there is insufficient consumption, excess savings will remain idle, seek a return from rent or deception, or fund speculative bubbles.
Fiscal Implications Of Interest Rate Normalization In The United States
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Author : Huixin Bi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-05-03
Fiscal Implications Of Interest Rate Normalization In The United States written by Huixin Bi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-05-03 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper studies the main channels through which interest rate normalization has fiscal implications in the United States. While unexpected inflation reduces the real value of government liabilities, a rising policy rate increases government financing needs because of higher interest payments and lower real bond prices. After an initial decline, the real government debt burden rises even with higher tax revenues in an expansion. Given the current net debt-to-GDP ratio at around 80 percent, interest rate normalization leads to a negligible increase in the sovereign default risk of the U.S. federal government, despite a much higher federal debt-to-GDP ratio than the post-war historical average.
Fiscal Limits In Advanced Economies
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Author : Eric Michael Leeper
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Fiscal Limits In Advanced Economies written by Eric Michael Leeper and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Economics categories.
Abstract: Aging populations in advanced economies are placing ever-increasing demands on government spending in the form of old-age benefits. Economies that have promised substantially more benefits than they have made provision to finance are heading into a prolonged era of fiscal stress. Unresolved fiscal stress raises the possibility that the economies will hit their fiscal limits where taxes and spending no longer adjust to stabilize debt. In such economies, monetary policy may lose its ability to control inflation and influence the economy in the usual ways. The paper discusses models of fiscal limits and their implications and lays out a research agenda to integrate political economy and empirical considerations with general equilibrium models of monetary and fiscal interactions