Forecasting And Recognizing Business Cycle Turning Points
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Forecasting And Recognizing Business Cycle Turning Points
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Author : Rendigs Fels
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1968
Forecasting And Recognizing Business Cycle Turning Points written by Rendigs Fels and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1968 with Business & Economics categories.
2-part assessment of research methods in respect of forecasting periods of economic recession and economic growth, with particular reference to the USA - comprises (1) an investigation of problems in economic research of forecasting and recognising business cycle peaks and troughs, and (2) an evaluation of the performance of the federal open market committee of the u.s.a. In anticipating and recognising 7 cyclical turns since the 2nd world war. References.
Forecasting And Recognizing Business Cycles Turning Points
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Author : Fels Rendigs
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1968
Forecasting And Recognizing Business Cycles Turning Points written by Fels Rendigs and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1968 with categories.
Forecasting And Recognizing Business Cycle Turning Points By R Fels And C E Hinshaw
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Author : Rendigs Fels
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date :
Forecasting And Recognizing Business Cycle Turning Points By R Fels And C E Hinshaw written by Rendigs Fels and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with Business cycles categories.
Beating The Business Cycle
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Author : Lakshman Achuthan
language : en
Publisher: Crown Currency
Release Date : 2004-05-18
Beating The Business Cycle written by Lakshman Achuthan and has been published by Crown Currency this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-05-18 with Business & Economics categories.
How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE shows you how. In BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy. Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks. BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels–managers, small business owners, and individuals–can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day? Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times–even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.
Business Cycles
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Author : Francis X. Diebold
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2020-10-06
Business Cycles written by Francis X. Diebold and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-06 with Business & Economics categories.
This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.
Forecasting Financial And Economic Cycles
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Author : Michael P. Niemira
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 1994-03-31
Forecasting Financial And Economic Cycles written by Michael P. Niemira and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994-03-31 with Business & Economics categories.
Gain the knowledge and skills that can help you exploit instability. No book can help you construct foolproof forecasting systems that will ensure you'll accurately predict economic turning points every time. But with Niemira and Klein's Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles on hand, you'll be able to significantly strengthen your ability to measure, monitor, and forecast important fluctuations. Part history, it provides you with essential background material on the characteristics and causes of economic volatility. It offers accessible coverage of the classical business cycle, the five basic types of economic cycles as determined by leading economists, and evolving ideas on the forces driving instability—ranging from simple unicausal theories, more complex Keynesian theory, to new classical macroeconomics. In addition, its concise review of America's economic past highlights the lessons that can be learned from the various cycles experienced since shortly before World War II. Part handbook, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles presents the full spectrum of statistical techniques used to measure cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other vital changes, offering you step-by-step guidance on applying a specific method and detailing its uses and limitations. It goes on to show how youcan adapt particular techniques to assess, track, and predict: Industry cycles—including an objective, tailor-made forecasting tool Regional business cycles—including a survey of regional indicators International business cycles—with an international business cycle chronology Inflation cycles—plus "12 little-known facts" about this complex cycle Financial cycles—covering credit, monetary, and interest rate cycles Stock market cycles—with advice on achieving more disciplined trading Based on outstanding scholarship and years of practical experience, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles will serve as an invaluable tool for practitioners like you whose decision-making—and profit margin—depend on accurately assessing today's often uncertain economic climate. "Forecasting Financialand Economic Cycles provides a lively survey of the many ways that cyclical economic activity has been dissected and analyzed. With this book, an astute reader may even be able to anticipate the next cyclical turn." —Samuel D. Kahan, Chief Economist Fuji Securities, Inc. "The definitive book on the most important and enduringfeature of an often mist-bound economic landscape: the business cycle." —Alfred L. Malabre, Jr., Economics Editor, The Wall Street,Journal "Niemira and Klein cover both the theory of economic cyclesand methods for forecasting them. They provide one of the most comprehensive and current reviews of academic studies of economic cycles to be found anywhere." —Anthony F. Herbst, Professor of Finance, The University of Texas at El Paso "This book succeeds as a comprehensive, balanced, and accessible treatment of fluctuations in economic and financial activity. It should prove useful to all those in industry and finance who wish to understand and analyze the trends and changes in the modern dynamic economy." —Victor Zarnowitz, Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance, University of Chicago
Always A Winner
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Author : Peter Navarro
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2009-08-06
Always A Winner written by Peter Navarro and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-08-06 with Business & Economics categories.
"In much the same way that Good to Great uncovered hitherto hidden secrets of highly successful companies, Navarro’s Always a Winner uses extensive research to reveal the overriding importance of learning how to forecast and strategically manage the business cycle for competitive advantage. In doing so, this book provocatively explores a critical aspect of successful management virtually untapped by the existing strategy literature." —Dan DiMicco, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Nucor Steel " Always a Winner is an important and timely guide to thriving in challenging economic times. Prof. Navarro deftly bridges the academic and business communities, showing corporate leaders how to read economic tea-leaves to anticipate business cycles. His "Master Cyclist" credo offers many practical tips and real-world case studies for steering companies through turbulent economic seas." —Mark Greene, Ph.D, Chief Executive Officer, FICO (Fair Isaac Corp.) "Navarro’s Always a Winner shows why forecasting the economy with a ruler can be lethal for corporate executives and money managers. He demonstrates how to skillfully anticipate the ups and downs of the economy and successfully navigate through them. The current economic crisis clearly demonstrates why this book is so important to have on your bookshelf." —Mark Zandi, Chief Economist and Cofounder of Moody’s Economy.com "Always a Winner is required reading for every entrepreneur, money manager, and independent investor hoping to outperform the market and retire one day." —Mark T. Brookshire, Founder of StockTrak.com and WallStreetSurvivor.com " Navarro’s wealth of real world examples will show you how to make both economic recessions and recoveries invaluable allies in executing competitive corporate strategies. A must read!" —Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director, Economic Cycle Research Institute Why recessions are far more dangerous than any 10 competitors Most companies make a lot of money during economic expansions-and lose a lot of money during recessions. That is the way it has always been. That is the way it need not always be. This book will show you how to "always be a winner" over the course of the entire business cycle-not just when economic times are good. To do this job, this book will arm you with all the strategies and tactics and forecasting tools you will need to profitably manage your organization through the business cycle seasons-from the best of boom times to the worst of recessionary times. In this book, you will learn to Forecast movements and key recessionary turning points in the business cycle Implement a set of powerful "battle-tested" strategies over the course of the business cycle Rebuild your organization with a strategic business cycle orientation and thereby make it much more recession-resistant and resilient over the longer term The forecasting tools and management strategies revealed in this book have been developed over the last five years by the author-the world's leading expert on managing the business cycle for competitive advantage. By learning to strategically manage the business cycle, your organization will be able to create a powerful competitive and sustainable advantage over its rivals and thereby find the grail sought by every executive team in the world-superior financial performance. In this way, Always a Winner provides you with the in-depth insight and practical advice you need to help your company survive and thrive in the increasingly risky conditions of the 21st century.
Nowcasting The Business Cycle
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Author : James Picerno
language : en
Publisher: CreateSpace
Release Date : 2014-04
Nowcasting The Business Cycle written by James Picerno and has been published by CreateSpace this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04 with Business & Economics categories.
Nowcasting The Business Cycle presents a practical guide for analyzing recession risk—the primary risk factor that drives success and failure in business, finance, wealth management, and so much more. Whether you're an individual investor watching over your retirement account; the owner of a small business; a manager running a billion-dollar pension fund; or a CEO in charge of a global corporation, a large portion of triumph and defeat is closely linked with the broad swings in the economy. The business cycle, in other words, is the mother of all known (and recurring) risk factors. Accordingly, developing a process for assessing the likelihood of this threat is critical. Everyone needs a reliable, timely warning system that's relatively uncomplicated and transparent. Drawing on economic theory and macro's historical record, Nowcasting The Business Cycle outlines a simple but effective model for identifying those times when a new recession has probably started. This isn't forecasting, which is a fool's errand when it comes to the economy. Instead, the goal is recognizing when a majority of key indicators have already reached a tipping point. That may sound like a trivial advantage, but most people—including many economists—don't fully recognize when a recession has begun until the deterioration is obvious. By that point, the opportunity has probably passed for taking defensive measures in your investment portfolio, your business, or your career. The real challenge is less about predicting and more about developing solid intuition for recognizing when the macro threat is exceptionally high. Even a small degree of progress here can provide a considerable boost to your strategic insight. If we can learn the techniques for recognizing a cyclical downturn's presence relatively early—soon after it's begun, or just as it's starting—we'll have an advantage that tends to elude most folks. Nowcasting The Business Cycle provides a roadmap for ensuring that you won't be caught by surprise when the next recession strikes. That's a crucial advantage for one powerful reason: There's always another recession coming.
Ahead Of The Curve
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Author : Joseph H. Ellis
language : en
Publisher: Harvard Business Press
Release Date : 2005
Ahead Of The Curve written by Joseph H. Ellis and has been published by Harvard Business Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Business & Economics categories.
Today’s managers and investors are bombarded with so many conflicting economic reports and data that it seems impossible to know which way the market will turn until it’s too late. Now, a thirty-five year Wall Street veteran enables managers and investors to stop relying on conventional economic forecasts (which are usually wrong), and confidently analyse how the market will impact their industry, business, or stocks. The author unveils his proven forecasting model—based on just a few key economic indicators—for identifying major directional changes in the economy and adjusting business and investing strategies accordingly. A simpler and more pragmatic approach to forecasting: user-friendly approach draws from empirical observation and first-hand practice rather than abstract economic theories Great timing: will appeal to the many business people and investors who got burned in the dotcom bust because they didn’t see the downturn coming Proven model developed by a bonafide Wall Street sage: Ellis is widely respected as a sage when it comes to analysing economic trends based on over three decades as a successful Wall Street analyst Novel, counterintuitive, accessible: goes against the grain of common wisdom about what really drives the economy and makes practical tools available to a wide audience of practitioners for the first time Appendix B in the book specifically relates the methodology in the main section of the book to possible application in the UK, Canada, Germany, France, and Japan
Predicting Turning Points In The Interest Rate Cycle Rle Business Cycles
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Author : James W. Coons
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2015-03-24
Predicting Turning Points In The Interest Rate Cycle Rle Business Cycles written by James W. Coons and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-03-24 with Business & Economics categories.
Originally published in 1994 and the recipient of the Stonier Library Award, this volume evaluates an alternative approach – the sequential filter- to managing the uncertainty inherent in the future course of the interest rate cycle. The specific hypothesis is that the sequential filter can produce valuable signals of cyclical peaks and troughs in interest rates. The analysis focusses on US interest rates from April 1953 to December 1988.