Forecasting Crashes
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Forecasting Crashes
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Author : Joseph Chen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2000
Forecasting Crashes written by Joseph Chen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Financial crises categories.
This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications which attempt to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have experienced: 1) an increase in trading volume relative to trend over the prior six months; and 2) positive returns over the prior thirty-six months. The first finding is consistent with the model of Hong and Stein (1999), which predicts that negative asymmetries are more likely to occur when there are large differences of opinion among investors. The latter finding fits with a number of theories, most notably Blanchard and Watson's (1982) rendition of stock-price bubbles. Analogous results also obtain when we attempt to forecast the skewness of the aggregate stock market, though our statistical power in this case is limited.
Forecasting Crashes
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Author : Joseph Chen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Forecasting Crashes written by Joseph Chen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications which attempt to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have experienced: 1) an increase in trading volume relative to trend over the prior six months; and 2) positive returns over the prior thirty-six months. The first finding is consistent with the model of Hong and Stein (1999), which predicts that negative asymmetries are more likely to occur when there are large differences of opinion among investors. The latter finding fits with a number of theories, most notably Blanchard and Watson's (1982) rendition of stock-price bubbles. Analogous results also obtain when we attempt to forecast the skewness of the aggregate stock market, though our statistical power in this case is limited.
Forecasting Crashes With A Smile
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Author : Ian Martin
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2023
Forecasting Crashes With A Smile written by Ian Martin and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023 with Assets (Accounting) categories.
We introduce a framework that uses option prices to deliver upper and lower bounds on the probability of crash in an individual stock, and argue based on a priori considerations that the lower bound should be close to the true crash probability. Empirical tests support this prediction in and out of sample. We horse-race the lower bound against a range of characteristics proposed by the prior literature. The lower bound is highly statistically significant, with a t-statistic above five, and is an order of magnitude more economically significant than any of the characteristics, in the sense that a one standard deviation increase in the lower bound raises the predicted probability of a crash by 3 percentage points, whereas a one standard deviation change in the next most important predictor (a measure of short interest) moves the predicted probability of a crash by only 0.3 percentage points.
Forecasting Market Crashes
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Author : Esther Del Brio
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Forecasting Market Crashes written by Esther Del Brio and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with categories.
The current research examines the capacity of the Edgeworth-Sargan density on forecasting market crashes. Focusing on the 1987 stock market crash the performance of this distribution is compared to the Student's t concluding that the latter overestimates the risk. In contrast, and due to its flexible parametric structure, the Edgeworth-Sargan density is capable of more accurately forecasting the risk of highly volatile scenarios, especially when intraday data is available. We use daily data from the FTSE and Dow Jones indices (continuously compounded returns).
Accident Risk Forecasting A Bibliography
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Author : Lois Flynn
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1977
Accident Risk Forecasting A Bibliography written by Lois Flynn and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1977 with categories.
Crashes Crises And Calamities
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Author : Len Fisher
language : en
Publisher: Hachette UK
Release Date : 2011-03-29
Crashes Crises And Calamities written by Len Fisher and has been published by Hachette UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-03-29 with Science categories.
Why do certain civilizations, societies, and ecosystems collapse? How does the domino effect relate to the credit crunch? When can mathematics help explain marriage? And how on earth do toads predict earthquakes? The future is uncertain. But science can help foretell what lies ahead. Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, Crashes, Crises, and Calamities offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories. In accessible prose, Len Fisher demonstrates how we can foresee and manage events that might otherwise catch us by surprise. At the cutting edge of science, Fisher helps us find ways to act before a full-fledged catastrophe is upon us. Crashes, Crises, and Calamities is a witty and informative exploration of the chaos, complexity, and patterns of our daily lives.
Why Stock Markets Crash
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Author : Didier Sornette
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2017-03-21
Why Stock Markets Crash written by Didier Sornette and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-03-21 with Business & Economics categories.
The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.
Computer Based Tools For Forecasting Crashes At The Planning Level
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Author : Daehyun You
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Computer Based Tools For Forecasting Crashes At The Planning Level written by Daehyun You and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Traffic safety categories.
Forecasting Crashes
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Author : Xun Gong
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Forecasting Crashes written by Xun Gong and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
This paper uses the correlation of money flow among mutual funds to forecast the skewness of stock returns. We show that asset returns are highly negatively skewed when their mutual fund owners experience correlated liquidity shocks. In addition, stocks with high mutual fund ownership are more “crash prone”, whereas the returns of stocks with concentrated ownership tend to display more positive skewness.
The Science Of Disasters
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Author : Armin Bunde
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
The Science Of Disasters written by Armin Bunde and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Science categories.
This book tackles these questions by applying advanced methods from statistical physics and related fields to all types of non-linear dynamics prone to disaster. It gives readers an insight into the problems of catastrophes and is one of the first books on the theories of disaster. Based on physical and mathematical theories, the general principles of disaster appearance are explained.