Forecasting Implied Volatility Smile Surface Via Deep Learning And Attention Mechanism
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Forecasting Implied Volatility Smile Surface Via Deep Learning And Attention Mechanism
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Author : Shengli Chen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Forecasting Implied Volatility Smile Surface Via Deep Learning And Attention Mechanism written by Shengli Chen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
The implied volatility smile surface is the basis of option pricing, and the dynamic evolution of the option volatility smile surface is difficult to predict. In this paper, attention mechanism is introduced into LSTM, and a volatility surface prediction method combining deep learning and attention mechanism is pioneeringly established. LSTM's forgetting gate makes it have strong generalization ability, and its feedback structure enables it to characterize the long memory of financial volatility. The application of attention mechanism in LSTM networks can significantly enhance the ability of LSTM networks to select input features. This paper considers the discrete points of the implied volatility smile surface as an overall prediction target, extracts the daily, weekly, and monthly option implied volatility as input features and establishes a set of LSTM-Attention deep learning systems. Using the dropout mechanism in training reduces the risk of over-fitting. For the prediction results, we use arbitrage-free smoothing to form the final implied volatility smile surface. This article uses the S&P 500 option market to conduct an empirical study. The research shows that the error curve of the LSTM-attention prediction system converges, and the prediction of the implied volatility surface is more accurate than other predicting system. According to the implied volatility surface of the 3-year rolling forecast, the BS formula is used to pricing the option contract, and then a time spread strategy and a butterfly spread strategy are constructed respectively. The experimental results show that the two strategies constructed using the predicted implied volatility surfaces have higher returns and sharp ratios than that the volatility surfaces are not predicted. This paper confirms that the use of AI to predict the implied volatility surface has theoretical and economic value. The research method provides a new reference for option pricing and strategy.
Multi Step Forecast Of The Implied Volatility Surface Using Deep Learning
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Author : Nikita Medvedev
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Multi Step Forecast Of The Implied Volatility Surface Using Deep Learning written by Nikita Medvedev and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with Economic forecasting categories.
Deep Learning Volatility
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Author : Blanka Horvath
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Deep Learning Volatility written by Blanka Horvath and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
We present a consistent neural network based calibration method for a number of volatility models-including the rough volatility family-that performs the calibration task within a few milliseconds for the full implied volatility surface.The aim of neural networks in this work is an off-line approximation of complex pricing functions, which are difficult to represent or time-consuming to evaluate by other means. We highlight how this perspective opens new horizons for quantitative modelling: The calibration bottleneck posed by a slow pricing of derivative contracts is lifted. This brings several model families (such as rough volatility models) within the scope of applicability in industry practice. As customary for machine learning, the form in which information from available data is extracted and stored is crucial for network performance. With this in mind we discuss how our approach addresses the usual challenges of machine learning solutions in a financial context (availability of training data, interpretability of results for regulators, control over generalisation errors). We present specific architectures for price approximation and calibration and optimize these with respect different objectives regarding accuracy, speed and robustness. We also find that including the intermediate step of learning pricing functions of (classical or rough) models before calibration significantly improves network performance compared to direct calibration to data.
Option Implied Risk Neutral Distributions And Risk Aversion
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Author : Jens Carsten Jackwerth
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Option Implied Risk Neutral Distributions And Risk Aversion written by Jens Carsten Jackwerth and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with categories.
Analytically Tractable Stochastic Stock Price Models
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Author : Archil Gulisashvili
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-09-04
Analytically Tractable Stochastic Stock Price Models written by Archil Gulisashvili and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-09-04 with Mathematics categories.
Asymptotic analysis of stochastic stock price models is the central topic of the present volume. Special examples of such models are stochastic volatility models, that have been developed as an answer to certain imperfections in a celebrated Black-Scholes model of option pricing. In a stock price model with stochastic volatility, the random behavior of the volatility is described by a stochastic process. For instance, in the Hull-White model the volatility process is a geometric Brownian motion, the Stein-Stein model uses an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process as the stochastic volatility, and in the Heston model a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process governs the behavior of the volatility. One of the author's main goals is to provide sharp asymptotic formulas with error estimates for distribution densities of stock prices, option pricing functions, and implied volatilities in various stochastic volatility models. The author also establishes sharp asymptotic formulas for the implied volatility at extreme strikes in general stochastic stock price models. The present volume is addressed to researchers and graduate students working in the area of financial mathematics, analysis, or probability theory. The reader is expected to be familiar with elements of classical analysis, stochastic analysis and probability theory.
Derivatives In Financial Markets With Stochastic Volatility
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Author : Jean-Pierre Fouque
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2000-07-03
Derivatives In Financial Markets With Stochastic Volatility written by Jean-Pierre Fouque and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-07-03 with Business & Economics categories.
This book, first published in 2000, addresses pricing and hedging derivative securities in uncertain and changing market volatility.
Fx Options And Structured Products
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Author : Uwe Wystup
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2017-06-30
Fx Options And Structured Products written by Uwe Wystup and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-06-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Advanced Guidance to Excelling in the FX Market Once you have a textbook understanding of money market and foreign exchange products, turn to FX Options and Structured Products, Second Edition, for the beyond-vanilla options strategies and traded deals proven superior in today’s post-credit crisis trading environment. With the thoroughness and balance of theory and practice only Uwe Wystup can deliver, this fully revised edition offers authoritative solutions for the real world in an easy-to-access format. See how specific products actually work through detailed case studies featuring clear examples of FX options, common structures and custom solutions. This complete resource is both a wellspring of ideas and a hands-on guide to structuring and executing your own strategies. Distinguish yourself with a valued skillset by: Working through practical and thought-provoking challenges in more than six dozen exercises, all with complete solutions in a companion volume Gaining a working knowledge of the latest, most popular products, including accumulators, kikos, target forwards and more Getting close to the everyday realities of the FX derivatives market through new, illuminating case studies for corporates, municipalities and private banking FX Options and Structured Products, Second Edition is your go-to road map to the exotic options in FX derivatives.
Commodity Price Dynamics
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Author : Craig Pirrong
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2011-10-31
Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-10-31 with Business & Economics categories.
Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
The Democratization Of Artificial Intelligence
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Author : Andreas Sudmann
language : en
Publisher: transcript Verlag
Release Date : 2019-10-31
The Democratization Of Artificial Intelligence written by Andreas Sudmann and has been published by transcript Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-10-31 with Social Science categories.
After a long time of neglect, Artificial Intelligence is once again at the center of most of our political, economic, and socio-cultural debates. Recent advances in the field of Artifical Neural Networks have led to a renaissance of dystopian and utopian speculations on an AI-rendered future. Algorithmic technologies are deployed for identifying potential terrorists through vast surveillance networks, for producing sentencing guidelines and recidivism risk profiles in criminal justice systems, for demographic and psychographic targeting of bodies for advertising or propaganda, and more generally for automating the analysis of language, text, and images. Against this background, the aim of this book is to discuss the heterogenous conditions, implications, and effects of modern AI and Internet technologies in terms of their political dimension: What does it mean to critically investigate efforts of net politics in the age of machine learning algorithms?
How I Became A Quant
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Author : Richard R. Lindsey
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2011-01-11
How I Became A Quant written by Richard R. Lindsey and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-01-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Praise for How I Became a Quant "Led by two top-notch quants, Richard R. Lindsey and Barry Schachter, How I Became a Quant details the quirky world of quantitative analysis through stories told by some of today's most successful quants. For anyone who might have thought otherwise, there are engaging personalities behind all that number crunching!" --Ira Kawaller, Kawaller & Co. and the Kawaller Fund "A fun and fascinating read. This book tells the story of how academics, physicists, mathematicians, and other scientists became professional investors managing billions." --David A. Krell, President and CEO, International Securities Exchange "How I Became a Quant should be must reading for all students with a quantitative aptitude. It provides fascinating examples of the dynamic career opportunities potentially open to anyone with the skills and passion for quantitative analysis." --Roy D. Henriksson, Chief Investment Officer, Advanced Portfolio Management "Quants"--those who design and implement mathematical models for the pricing of derivatives, assessment of risk, or prediction of market movements--are the backbone of today's investment industry. As the greater volatility of current financial markets has driven investors to seek shelter from increasing uncertainty, the quant revolution has given people the opportunity to avoid unwanted financial risk by literally trading it away, or more specifically, paying someone else to take on the unwanted risk. How I Became a Quant reveals the faces behind the quant revolution, offering you?the?chance to learn firsthand what it's like to be a?quant today. In this fascinating collection of Wall Street war stories, more than two dozen quants detail their roots, roles, and contributions, explaining what they do and how they do it, as well as outlining the sometimes unexpected paths they have followed from the halls of academia to the front lines of an investment revolution.