Foreign Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks And Real Activity In The Euro Area
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Foreign Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks And Real Activity In The Euro Area
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Author : Filippo Arigoni
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2023
Foreign Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks And Real Activity In The Euro Area written by Filippo Arigoni and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023 with categories.
Fear Thy Neighbor Spillovers From Economic Policy Uncertainty
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Author : Nina Biljanovska
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-15
Fear Thy Neighbor Spillovers From Economic Policy Uncertainty written by Nina Biljanovska and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-15 with Business & Economics categories.
High levels of economic policy uncertainty in various parts of the world revamped the de- bate about its impact on economic activity. With increasingly stronger economic, financial, and political ties among countries, economic agents have more reasons to be vigilant of for- eign economic policy. Employing heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressions, this paper tests for spillovers from economic policy uncertainty on other countries' economic ac- tivity. Furthermore, using local projections, the paper zooms in on shocks originating in the United States, Europe, and China. Our results suggest that economic policy uncertainty re- duces growth in real output, private consumption, and private investment, and that spillovers from abroad account for about two-thirds of the negative effect. Moreover, uncertainty in the United States, Europe, and China reduces economic activity in the rest of the world, with the effects being mostly felt in Europe and the Western Hemisphere.
International Effects Of Euro Area Versus Us Policy Uncertainty A Favar Approach
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Author : Ansgar Belke
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
International Effects Of Euro Area Versus Us Policy Uncertainty A Favar Approach written by Ansgar Belke and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
Tracking Global Economic Uncertainty
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Tracking Global Economic Uncertainty written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with categories.
This paper sheds light on the impact of global macroeconomic uncertainty on the euro area economy. We build on the methodology proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) and estimate global as well as country-specific measures of economic uncertainty for fifteen key euro area trade partners and the euro area. Our measures display a clear counter-cyclical pattern and line up well to a wide range of historical events generally associated with heightened uncertainty. In addition, following Piffer and Podstawski (2018), we estimate a Proxy SVAR where we instrument uncertainty shocks with changes in the price of gold around specific past events. We find that, historically, global uncertainty shocks have been important drivers of fluctuations in euro area economic activity, with one standard deviation increase in the identified uncertainty shock subtracting around 0.15 percentage points from euro area industrial production on impact.
Policy Uncertainty In Japan
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Author : Ms.Elif C Arbatli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-05-30
Policy Uncertainty In Japan written by Ms.Elif C Arbatli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-05-30 with Business & Economics categories.
We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
Measuring Global And Country Specific Uncertainty
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Author : Ezgi O. Ozturk
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-10-30
Measuring Global And Country Specific Uncertainty written by Ezgi O. Ozturk and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-10-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.
Alternative Economic Indicators
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Author : C. James Hueng
language : en
Publisher: W.E. Upjohn Institute
Release Date : 2020-09-08
Alternative Economic Indicators written by C. James Hueng and has been published by W.E. Upjohn Institute this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.
Emerging Markets And The Global Economy
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Author : Mohammed El Hedi Arouri
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2013-12-26
Emerging Markets And The Global Economy written by Mohammed El Hedi Arouri and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Emerging Markets and the Global Economy investigates analytical techniques suited to emerging market economies, which are typically prone to policy shocks. Despite the large body of emerging market finance literature, their underlying dynamics and interactions with other economies remain challenging and mysterious because standard financial models measure them imprecisely. Describing the linkages between emerging and developed markets, this collection systematically explores several crucial issues in asset valuation and risk management. Contributors present new theoretical constructions and empirical methods for handling cross-country volatility and sudden regime shifts. Usually attractive for investors because of the superior growth they can deliver, emerging markets can have a low correlation with developed markets. This collection advances your knowledge about their inherent characteristics. Foreword by Ali M. Kutan Concentrates on post-crisis roles of emerging markets in the global economy Reports on key theoretical and technical developments in emerging financial markets Forecasts future developments in linkages among developed and emerging economies
How To Write About Economics And Public Policy
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Author : Katerina Petchko
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2018-07-12
How To Write About Economics And Public Policy written by Katerina Petchko and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-07-12 with Business & Economics categories.
How to Write about Economics and Public Policy is designed to guide graduate students through conducting, and writing about, research on a wide range of topics in public policy and economics. This guidance is based upon the actual writing practices of professional researchers in these fields and it will appeal to practitioners and students in disciplinary areas such as international economics, macroeconomics, development economics, public finance, policy studies, policy analysis, and public administration. Supported by real examples from professional and student writers, the book helps students understand what is expected of writers in their field and guides them through choosing a topic for research to writing each section of the paper. This book would be equally effective as a classroom text or a self-study resource. Teaches students how to write about qualitative and quantitative research in public policy and economics in a way that is suitable for academic consumption and that can drive public policy debates Uses the genre-based approach to writing to teach discipline-appropriate ways of framing problems, designing studies, and writing and structuring content Includes authentic examples written by students and international researchers from various sub-disciplines of economics and public policy Contains strategies and suggestions for textual analysis of research samples to give students an opportunity to practice key points explained in the book Is based on a comprehensive analysis of a research corpus containing 400+ research articles in various areas of public policy and economics
United Kingdom
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Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2016-06-17
United Kingdom written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-06-17 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper aims to provide European Union (EU), while recognizing that the choice of whether to remain in the EU is for U.K. voters to make and that their decisions will reflect both economic and noneconomic factors. The question of EU membership is both a political and an economic issue, and the referendum has sparked a wide-ranging debate on the United Kingdom’s role in the EU. Given the range of plausible alternative arrangements with the EU, the number of channels by which countries could be affected and the range of possible effects on the United Kingdom and other economies are broad.
