Going Viral A Gravity Model Of Infectious Diseases And Tourism Flows
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Going Viral A Gravity Model Of Infectious Diseases And Tourism Flows
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Author : Mr.Serhan Cevik
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-07-03
Going Viral A Gravity Model Of Infectious Diseases And Tourism Flows written by Mr.Serhan Cevik and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-07-03 with Health & Fitness categories.
This paper develops a gravity model framework to estimate the impact of infectious diseases on bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries over the period 1995–2017. The results confirm that international tourism is adversely affected by disease risk, and the magnitude of this negative effect is statistically and economically significant. In the case of SARS, for example, a 10 percent rise in confirmed cases leads to a reduction of as much as 9 percent in tourist arrivals. Furthermore, while infectious diseases appear to have a smaller and statistically insignificant negative effect on tourism flows to advanced economies, the magnitude and statistical significance of the impact of infectious diseases are much greater in developing countries, where such diseases tend to be more prevalent and health infrastructure lags behind.
Peering Through The Fog Of Uncertainty Out Of Sample Forecasts Of Post Pandemic Tourism
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Author : Mr. Serhan Cevik
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-03-17
Peering Through The Fog Of Uncertainty Out Of Sample Forecasts Of Post Pandemic Tourism written by Mr. Serhan Cevik and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-17 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper uses an augmented gravity model framework to investigate the historical impact of infectious diseases on international tourism and develops an out-of-sample prediction model. Using bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries during the period 1995–2017, I compare the forecasting performance of alternative specifications and estimation methods. These computations confirm the statistical and economic significance of infectious-disease episodes in forecasting international tourism flows. Including infectious diseases in the model improves forecast accuracy by an average of 4.5 percent and as much as 7 percent relative to the standard gravity model. The magnitude of these effects, however, is likely to be much greater in the case of COVID-19, which is a highly contagious virus that has spread fast throughout populations across the world.
Handbook Of Research On Urban Tourism Viral Society And The Impact Of The Covid 19 Pandemic
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Author : Andrade, Pedro
language : en
Publisher: IGI Global
Release Date : 2022-06-30
Handbook Of Research On Urban Tourism Viral Society And The Impact Of The Covid 19 Pandemic written by Andrade, Pedro and has been published by IGI Global this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-06-30 with Business & Economics categories.
The tourism and hospitality industries have faced major setbacks in recent years as they have had to combat various challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic and a rapidly evolving global market. In order to ensure these industries are prepared for future crises, further study on the best practices and strategies for handling difficult times and managing growth is critical. The Handbook of Research on Urban Tourism, Viral Society, and the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic provides innovative research and perspectives on the revitalization of cultural tourism industries and services by addressing the creation of jobs in the areas of restoration, leisure, and culture. The book also analyzes how the tourism industry has handled global crises in the past and proposes business models for information and knowledge dissemination to appropriately handle disasters. Covering critical topics such as digital media and risk management, this major reference work is ideal for industry professionals, government officials, policymakers, researchers, academicians, scholars, practitioners, instructors, and students.
Geopolitics And International Trade The Democracy Advantage
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Author : Mr. Serhan Cevik
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-02-02
Geopolitics And International Trade The Democracy Advantage written by Mr. Serhan Cevik and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-02-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Do political regimes determine how geopolitics influence international trade? This paper provides an empirical answer to the question by analyzing the joint impact of democracy and geopolitical distance between countries with an augmented gravity model of bilateral trade flows and an extensive dataset of more than 4 million observations on 59,049 country-pairs over the period 1948–2018. Implementing the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood regression and the two-stage least squares with instrumental variable approach, I find that geopolitical developments are not as important as income and geographical distance in determining bilateral trade flows and that democracy fosters international trade and moderates the potential negative impact of geopolitics. While the impact of democracy and its interaction with geopolitical distance are significant across all countries, the magnitude of these effects is substantially larger in advanced economies than in developing countries, reflecting the greater strength of democratic institutions, on average, in advanced economies.
Tourism In The Post Pandemic World
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Author : Ms.Manuela Goretti
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-02-19
Tourism In The Post Pandemic World written by Ms.Manuela Goretti and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.
Long Live Globalization Geopolitical Shocks And International Trade
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Author : Mr. Serhan Cevik
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-10-27
Long Live Globalization Geopolitical Shocks And International Trade written by Mr. Serhan Cevik and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-10-27 with Business & Economics categories.
Are we really witnessing the death of globalization? A multitude of shocks over the past three years has unsettled the conventional wisdom on economic integration and fueled widespread calls for protectionist and nationalist policies. Using an extensive dataset with more than 4 million observations, I develop an augmented gravity model of bilateral trade flows among 59,049 country-pairs over the period 1948–2021 and find that the much-debated geopolitical alignment between countries has contradictory and statistically insignificant effects on trade, depending on the level of economic development. Moreover, the economic magnitude of this effect is not as important as income or geographic distance and it diminishes significantly when extreme outliers are removed from the sample. The empirical analysis presented in this paper also confirms that the level of income in both origin and destination countries has a positive impact on trade, while the greater the distance between countries, the smaller the flow of bilateral trade due to higher trade costs. Cultural similarities and historical ties are also important in shaping trade flows, just like trade agreements that tend to lead to higher level of international trade.
Policy Advice To Asia In The Covid 19 Era
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Author : Changyong Rhee
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-03-05
Policy Advice To Asia In The Covid 19 Era written by Changyong Rhee and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-05 with Health & Fitness categories.
The Asia-Pacific region was the first to be hit by the COVID-19 pandemic; it put a strain on its people and economies, and policymaking became exceptionally difficult. This departmental paper contains the assessment of the key challenges facing Asia at this critical juncture and policy advice to the region both to address the current challenges and to build the foundations for a more sustainable and inclusive future. The paper focuses on (1) adjusting to the COVID-19 shock, (2) using unconventional policies when policy space is limited, (3) dealing with debt, and (4) helping the vulnerable and greening the recovery. The paper first presents the different ways countries are adjusting to the COVID-19 shock.
The Bahamas
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-01-28
The Bahamas written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-01-28 with Health & Fitness categories.
The economic impact of COVID-19 on The Bahamas is unprecedented. The archipelago was just recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Dorian in the fall of 2019, when the pandemic led to a sudden stop in tourism, the main source of income and employment. The authorities mounted a rapid emergency response to support the economy and vulnerable households and put in place strict containment measures. But amid limited testing and health resources, reopening the economy has been challenging.
Diversion Of Tourism Flows In The Asia Pacific Region Lessons For Covid 19 Recovery
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Author : Vybhavi Balasundharam
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-08-20
Diversion Of Tourism Flows In The Asia Pacific Region Lessons For Covid 19 Recovery written by Vybhavi Balasundharam and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-08-20 with Business & Economics categories.
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a collapse in international tourism, severely impacting the tourism-dependent economies in the Asia & Pacific region. Once countries start reopening, tourism diversion effects could accelerate the recovery in countries that establish themselves as more attractive travel destinations than competitors. We investigate the impact of previous shocks in tourism competitor countries on visitor inflows, with a particular focus on tourism-dependent Pacific Island Countries (PICs). We find that PICs were generally resilient to external shocks and benefitted from diversion effects for certain types of shocks. For example, the share of departures from Australia to PICs increased by 12 percent during the SARS outbreak. We then derive policy implications for the post-COVID-19 revival of inbound tourism to PICs and lessons for the future.
The Pandemic Century
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Author : Mark Honigsbaum
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2019-03-09
The Pandemic Century written by Mark Honigsbaum and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-09 with History categories.
Like sharks, epidemic diseases always lurk just beneath the surface. This fast-paced history of their effect on mankind prompts questions about the limits of scientific knowledge, the dangers of medical hubris, and how we should prepare as epidemics become ever more frequent. Ever since the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic, scientists have dreamed of preventing catastrophic outbreaks of infectious disease. Yet, despite a century of medical progress, viral and bacterial disasters continue to take us by surprise, inciting panic and dominating news cycles. From the Spanish flu and the 1924 outbreak of pneumonic plague in Los Angeles to the 1930 'parrot fever' pandemic and the more recent SARS, Ebola, and Zika epidemics, the last 100 years have been marked by a succession of unanticipated pandemic alarms. Like man-eating sharks, predatory pathogens are always present in nature, waiting to strike; when one is seemingly vanquished, others appear in its place. These pandemics remind us of the limits of scientific knowledge, as well as the role that human behaviour and technologies play in the emergence and spread of microbial diseases.