Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization
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Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : Eric Monnet
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-03-08
Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization written by Eric Monnet and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper assesses the strength of business cycle synchronization between 1950 and 2014 in a sample of 21 countries using a new quarterly dataset based on IMF archival data. Contrary to the common wisdom, we find that the globalization period is not associated with more output synchronization at the global level. The world business cycle was as strong during Bretton Woods (1950-1971) than during the Globalization period (1984-2006). Although globalization did not affect the average level of co-movement, trade and financial integration strongly affect the way countries co-move with the rest of the world. We find that financial integration de-synchronizes national outputs from the world cycle, although the magnitude of this effect depends crucially on the type of shocks hitting the world economy. This de-synchronizing effect has offset the synchronizing impact of other forces, such as increased trade integration.
Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : Eric Monnet
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization written by Eric Monnet and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with Business cycles categories.
How Does Globalization Affect The Synchronization Of Business Cycles
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Author : Mr.Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-03-04
How Does Globalization Affect The Synchronization Of Business Cycles written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-03-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited support for the conventional wisdom that globalization has increased the degree of synchronization of business cycles. The evidence that trade and financial integration enhance global spillovers of macroeconomic fluctuations is stronger for industrial countries. One striking result is that, on average, cross-country consumption correlations have not increased in the 1990s, precisely when financial integration would have been expected to result in better risk-sharing opportunities, especially for developing countries.
Globalization The Business Cycle And Macroeconomic Monitoring
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Author : Mr.Marco Terrones
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-02-01
Globalization The Business Cycle And Macroeconomic Monitoring written by Mr.Marco Terrones and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-02-01 with Business & Economics categories.
We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observations, and is designed to facilitate the updating of global activity estimates as data are released and revisions become available. We apply the framework to the G-7 countries and study various aspects of national and global business cycles, obtaining three main results. First, our measure of the global business cycle, the common G-7 real activity factor, explains a significant amount of cross-country variation and tracks the major global cyclical events of the past forty years. Second, the common G-7 factor and the idiosyncratic country factors play different roles at different times in shaping national economic activity. Finally, the degree of G-7 business cycle synchronization among country factors has changed over time.
Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : Mr.Romain A Duval
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-04-03
Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization written by Mr.Romain A Duval and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-03 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.
How Does Globalization Affect The Synchronization Of Business Cycles
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Author : M. Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
How Does Globalization Affect The Synchronization Of Business Cycles written by M. Ayhan Kose and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.
This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited support for the conventional wisdom that globalization has increased the degree of synchronization of business cycles. The evidence that trade and financial integration enhance global spillovers of macroeconomic fluctuations is stronger for industrial countries. One striking result is that, on average, cross-country consumption correlations have not increased in the 1990s, precisely when financial integration would have been expected to result in better risk-sharing opportunities, especially for developing countries.
Business Cycle Synchronization And Regional Integration
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Author : Norbert Fiess
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2005
Business Cycle Synchronization And Regional Integration written by Norbert Fiess and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Business Cycle categories.
Abstract: In early January 2003, the United States and Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua launched official negotiations for the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), a treaty that would expand NAFTA-style trade barrier reductions to Central America. With deeper trade integration between Central America and the United States, it is expected that there will be closer links in business cycles between Central American countries and the United States. The paper finds a relatively low degree of business cycle synchronization within Central America as well as between Central America and the United States. The business cycle synchronization is expected to increase only modestly with further trade expansion, making the coordination of macroeconomic policies within CAFTA somewhat less of a priority.
One Ring To Rule Them All New Evidence On World Cycles
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Author : Eric Monnet
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-09-20
One Ring To Rule Them All New Evidence On World Cycles written by Eric Monnet and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-20 with Business & Economics categories.
We estimate world cycles using a new quarterly dataset of output, credit and asset prices assembled using IMF archives and covering a large set of advanced and emerging economies since 1950. World cycles, both real and financial, exist and are generally driven by US shocks. But their impact is modest for most countries. The global financial cycle is also much weaker when looking at credit rather than asset prices. We also challenge the view that syncronization has increased over time. Although this is true for prices (goods and assets), this not true for quantities (output and credit). The world business and credit cycles were as strong during Bretton Woods (1950–1972) as during the Globalization period (1984-2006). For most countries, the way their output co-moves with the rest of the world has changed little over the last 70 years. We discuss the reasons behind these new findings and their policy implications for small open economies.
Globalisation
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Author : Joachim Scheide
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2003
Globalisation written by Joachim Scheide and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Globalization categories.
In recent years, the integration of goods, capital and financial markets has progressed on a global scale. The 66th annual meeting of the Association of German Economics Research Institutes (ARGE) focused on the question of national macroeconomic policies in an environment of increasingly interdependent business cycles.In the first paper of the volume, Koll gives a general introduction to the history of business cycles co-movement. Koll also highlights the responsibility of national governments as global players.The first section deals with the evolution of business cycle synchronization. Flaig, Sturm and Woitek conclude that, while the oil shocks of the 70s induced strong co-movements in business cycles, German unification led to a divergence of national cycles. The paper by Fichtner concentrates not only on business cycle synchronization over time but introduces an analysis on the transmission mechanisms at work. Fichtner finds that common shocks and technology spillovers account for most of the co-movement in output.The second section explains some of the individual transmission mechanisms in greater detail. Horn examines how business confidence carries over from one country to another and finds evidence that positive expectations in the US strengthen German confidence and that this relationship has become stronger over time. Schröder quantifies the role of the transmission of stock market investors' confidence in the relationship between US and German GDP. He distinguishes between the pure investor expectation effect and the direct influence of stock markets on real GDP and finds a direct causal impact.The third section concentrates on economic policy and its implications. Kuhn analyzes the transmission of monetary policy shocks and finds the transmission mechanism via interest rate co-movements to be more important than that via trade and the exchange rate mechanism. Middendorf and Radmacher-Nottelmann explore the importance of multinationals in the transmission of economic business cycles. Macro evidence suggests a synchronization of investment behavior. Micro evidence, however, reveals only a weak impact of multinationals on business cycle synchronization.This AEQ supplement should be essential reading for anyone, whether academic or practitioner, with an interest in future macroeconomic policy options in an increasingly integrated economic environment.
Business Cycle Synchronization And Regional Integration
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Author : Norbert Fiess
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Business Cycle Synchronization And Regional Integration written by Norbert Fiess and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.
Deeper trade integration between Central America and the United States, as envisaged under the Central American Free Trade Agreement, is likely to lead to closer links between Central American and U.S. business cycles. This article assesses the degree of business cycle synchronization between Central America and the United States-relevant not only for a better understanding of the influence of important trading partners on the business cycle fluctuations in the domestic economy but for evaluating the costs and benefits of macroeconomic coordination.