Intuitive Predictions And Professional Forecasts
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Intuitive Predictions And Professional Forecasts
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Author : Jurgen T. Rehm
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2013-10-22
Intuitive Predictions And Professional Forecasts written by Jurgen T. Rehm and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-22 with Social Science categories.
This volume discusses new approaches for the integration of cognitive psychology and professional forecasting, conceptual clarification of intuition and its role in predictions and forecasts. The authors present empirical tests of the theoretical assumptions in the area of psychiatric prognosis, election predictions and energy consumption forecasts. The book goes beyond the individual perspective and deals with technological problems and the social consequences of predictions. The reader is given a vivid overview for judgemental forecasting with special emphasis on practical problems.
Handbook Of Contemporary Behavioral Economics
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Author : Morris Altman
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2015-01-30
Handbook Of Contemporary Behavioral Economics written by Morris Altman and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-30 with Business & Economics categories.
At a time when both scholars and the public demand explanations and answers to key economic problems that conventional approaches have failed to resolve, this groundbreaking handbook of original works by leading behavioral economists offers the first comprehensive articulation of behavioral economics theory. Borrowing from the findings of psychologists, sociologists, political scientists, legal scholars, and biologists, among others, behavioral economists find that intelligent individuals often tend not to behave as effectively or efficiently in their economic decisions as long held by conventional wisdom. The manner in which individuals actually do behave critically depends on psychological, institutional, cultural, and even biological considerations. "Handbook of Contemporary Behavioral Economics" includes coverage of such critical areas as the Economic Agent, Context and Modeling, Decision Making, Experiments and Implications, Labor Issues, Household and Family Issues, Life and Death, Taxation, Ethical Investment and Tipping, and Behavioral Law and Macroeconomics. Each contribution includes an extensive bibliography.
Intuition Insight And Prediction
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Author : Leanne Halyburton
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020-07-18
Intuition Insight And Prediction written by Leanne Halyburton and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-07-18 with categories.
Does the world really need another book about intuition? Probably not. However, there are many ways of looking at things, and there are different viewpoints to be considered. Author, Leanne Halyburton, believes that intuition is not a gift that is bestowed upon only a select few - it is natural to all of us! It is something we use in everyday life, often without even realising it; however, there are also times when we consciously and deliberately turn to it for insight into the bigger issues of life. From the work of psychic detectives, to the insight and prediction provided by intuitive consultants, this book examines the roles that intuition plays in our lives - and explains why we couldn't survive without it. It also discusses the following: The differences between a psychic reading and an intuitive consultation How each aspect of our life operates from within its own energy field How intuition transmits via energetic channels How intuition and 'good luck' are connected Why intuition is not a one-size-fits-all kind of thing, and can sometimes be unclear or patchy The mindset and approach that works best with intuition Leanne Halyburton is a professional intuitive consultant, with a career that has spanned 26 years; her approach to both her work and her writing is straightforward and down to earth. Her insatiable curiosity, her humour, and her committed belief in the power of intuition, flows from the pages of this easy to read book!
Forecasting
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Author : Jennifer Castle
language : en
Publisher: Yale University Press
Release Date : 2019-06-11
Forecasting written by Jennifer Castle and has been published by Yale University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-11 with Economic forecasting categories.
Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive--this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve's record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
An Intimate History Of Humanity
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Author : Theodore Zeldin
language : en
Publisher: Random House
Release Date : 2012-12-31
An Intimate History Of Humanity written by Theodore Zeldin and has been published by Random House this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-31 with Philosophy categories.
'The book that changed my life... a constant companion' Bill Bailey 'Extraordinary and beautiful...the most exciting and ambitious work of non-fiction I have read in more than a decade' The Daily Telegraph This extraordinarily wide-ranging study looks at the dilemmas of life today and shows how they need not have arisen. Portraits of living people and historical figures are placed alongside each other as Zeldin discusses how men and women have lost and regained hope; how they have learnt to have interesting conversations; how some have acquired an immunity to loneliness; how new forms of love and desire have been invented; how respect has become more valued than power; how the art of escaping from one's troubles has developed; why even the privileged are often gloomy; and why parents and children are changing their minds about what they want from each other.
The Psychology Of Intuitive Prediction
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Author : John Clayton Manzolati
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1981
The Psychology Of Intuitive Prediction written by John Clayton Manzolati and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1981 with Attribution (Social psychology) categories.
Advanced Models Of Cognition For Medical Training And Practice
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Author : David A. Evans
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-06-29
Advanced Models Of Cognition For Medical Training And Practice written by David A. Evans and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-29 with Medical categories.
Cognitive science is a multidisciplinary science concerned with understanding and utilizing models of cognition. It has spawned a great dealof research on applications such as expert systems and intelligent tutoring systems, and has interacted closely with psychological research. However, it is generally accepted that it is difficult to apply cognitive-scientific models to medical training and practice. This book is based on a NATO Advanced Research Workshop held in Italy in 1991, the purpose of which was to examine the impact ofmodels of cognition on medical training and practice and to outline future research programmes relating cognition and education, and in particular to consider the potential impact of cognitive science on medical training and practice. A major discovery presented in the book is that the research areas related to artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, and medical decision making are considerably closer, both conceptually and theoretically, than many of the workshop participants originally thought.
Intuition
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Author : David G. Myers
language : en
Publisher: Yale University Press
Release Date : 2008-10-01
Intuition written by David G. Myers and has been published by Yale University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-10-01 with Psychology categories.
How reliable is our intuition? How much should we depend on gut-level instinct rather than rational analysis when we play the stock market, choose a mate, hire an employee, or assess our own abilities? In this engaging and accessible book, David G. Myers shows us that while intuition can provide us with useful—and often amazing—insights, it can also dangerously mislead us. Drawing on recent psychological research, Myers discusses the powers and perils of intuition when: • judges and jurors determine who is telling the truth; • mental health workers predict whether someone is at risk for suicide or crime; • coaches, players, and fans decide who has the hot hand or the hot bat; • personnel directors hire new employees; • psychics claim to be clairvoyant or to have premonitions; • and much more.
Two Minds
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Author : Roger Frantz
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2006-07-02
Two Minds written by Roger Frantz and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-07-02 with Business & Economics categories.
As everyone knows, intuition is warm and fuzzy, qualitative, not measurable. Economics, on the other hand, is quantitative, and if it is not a hard science, at least it is the "queen of the social sciences." It is, therefore, intuitively obvious, that intuition and economics are as if oil and water. The problem is, what is intuitively obvious is not always correct. And, there are two major reasons why intuition and economics are not like oil and water. First, economics concerns itself with decision making, and decisions are made in the brain. The human brain is the size of a grapefruit, weighing three pounds with approximately 180 billion neurons, each physically independent but interacting with the other neurons. What we call intuition is, like decision making, a natural information processing function of the brain. Second, despite the current emphasis on quantitative analysis and deductive logic there is a rich history of economists speaking about intuition. First, the human brain, specifically the neocortex, has a left and right hemisphere. The specialized analytical style of the left hemisphere and the specialized intuitive style of the right hemispheres complement each other.
Transfer Of Learning
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Author : Robert E. Haskell
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2001
Transfer Of Learning written by Robert E. Haskell and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with Education categories.
This text addresses the problem of how our past or current learning influences, is generalised and is applied or adapted to similar or new situations. It illustrates how transfer of learning can be promoted in the classroom and everyday life.