Kenya Economic Update October 2018
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Kenya Economic Update October 2018
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Author : World Bank Group
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Kenya Economic Update October 2018 written by World Bank Group and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
The Kenyan Economy is on a rebound in 2018. Reflecting improved rains, better business sentiment and easing of political uncertainty, economic activity is rebounding after the slowdown in activity in 2017. According to official statistics, the economy expanded from 4.7 percent in H1 of 2017 to 6.0 percent in H1 of 2018 supported by improved harvest in agriculture, steady recovery in industrial activity, and still robust performance in the services sector. As a result, real GDP growth is projected to reach 5.7 percent in 2018, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from the April 2018 Economic Update. Growth in private consumption and investment are driving the rebound. Private consumption picked up in 2018 fueled by rising household incomes from improved agricultural harvests, lower food prices, and strong remittance inflows. A recovery in private sector investment activity is also underway, partly reflected in increased imports of raw materials and chemicals and more positive investor sentiment with the Purchasing Managers' Index remaining in expansionary territory (above the 50- mark) for H1 2018 at 55.1 points compared to 49.7 points over the same period in 2017. The recovery in private sector activity (consumption and investment) is expected to off-set potential drag in growth due to unwinding of fiscal stimulusat a time when fiscal consolidation is gathering momentum. Net exports continued to weigh on growth owing to faster expansion in imports relative to Kenya's exports. There are three key policy recommendations from this analysis. First, the government could consider expanding direct cash transfer programs. Cash transfer programs are well-targeted so that a large fraction of the benefits are captured by the poor. These programs could further be expanded in order to increase their poverty-reducing effect. However, this will require enhancing revenue mobilization for the coverage to increase significantly. Second, exemptions granted within Kenya's VAT regime appear to benefit the poor only marginally. The variation in consumption shares of exempt and zero-rated items across the welfare distribution is small. A review of the VAT law might help remove exemptions and increase revenue that could then be spent in well-targeted and progressive cash transfer programs. However, a more detailed follow-up analysis of exemptions and zero-rates would be necessary to determine item-level incidence. Third and finally, shifting public resources from higher-level health facilities to lower-level facilities is likely to benefit the poor. Conditional on uptake, public health spending on outpatient care is pro-poor while the associated user fees and over the counter purchases are regressive. The results suggest that redirecting spending from higher-level public health facilities to primary care facilities has the potential to benefit the poor and might increase access.
Kenya Economic Update April 2019 No 19
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Author : Weltbankgruppe
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Kenya Economic Update April 2019 No 19 written by Weltbankgruppe and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
The Kenyan economy rebounded in 2018 and economic activity in the first quarter of 2019 was healthy, although emerging drought conditions could curtail GDP growth for the remainder of the year. The economy expanded by 6.0 percent in the first three quarters of 2018 compared to 4.7 percent during the same period in 2017 driven by strong private consumption in part due to improved income from agricultural harvests in 2018, remittance inflows, and lower food prices. The Bank's GDP growth estimate for 2018 is about 5.8 percent. A strong pick-up in economic activity in Q1 of 2019 was reflected by real growth in consumer spending and stronger investor sentiment. Nonetheless, a delayed start to the March-May 2019 "long" rainy season could affect the planting season-resulting in poor harvests. In addition, ongoing emergency intervention to address food shortages in several counties could impose fiscal pressure constraining capital spending. These developments have slowed the growth forecast for 2019 and for the medium term relative to our October 2018 Update. Inflation remains within the government's target range of 5±2.5 percent. Headline inflation averaged 4.7 percent in 2018 compared to 8.0 percent in 2017, primarily due to the slowdown in food inflation, which in turn offset a temporary acceleration in energy prices. Further, core inflation has remained below 5 percent, suggesting benign underlying demand pressures. With low inflation, monetary policy could be more accommodative to support growth if needed, but with interest rate caps tied to the policy rate, further loosening would be constrained. The low inflationary pressure has also been supported by a stable local currency. The shilling has traded within a narrow band of Ksh100/US Dollas-Ksh.103/US Dollars in 2018, thereby serving as a nominal anchor to inflationary expectations.
Kenya Economic Update April 2019 No 19
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Author : World Bank Group
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Kenya Economic Update April 2019 No 19 written by World Bank Group and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
The Kenyan economy rebounded in 2018 and economic activity in the first quarter of 2019 was healthy, although emerging drought conditions could curtail GDP growth for the remainder of the year. The economy expanded by 6.0 percent in the first three quarters of 2018 compared to 4.7 percent during the same period in 2017 driven by strong private consumption in part due to improved income from agricultural harvests in 2018, remittance inflows, and lower food prices. The Bank's GDP growth estimate for 2018 is about 5.8 percent. A strong pick-up in economic activity in Q1 of 2019 was reflected by real growth in consumer spending and stronger investor sentiment. Nonetheless, a delayed start to the March-May 2019 "long" rainy season could affect the planting season-resulting in poor harvests. In addition, ongoing emergency intervention to address food shortages in several counties could impose fiscal pressure constraining capital spending. These developments have slowed the growth forecast for 2019 and for the medium term relative to our October 2018 Update. Inflation remains within the government's target range of 5 + or - 2.5 percent. Headline inflation averaged 4.7 percent in 2018 compared to 8.0 percent in 2017, primarily due to the slowdown in food inflation, which in turn offset a temporary acceleration in energy prices. Further, core inflation has remained below 5 percent, suggesting benign underlying demand pressures. With low inflation, monetary policy could be more accommodative to support growth if needed, but with interest rate caps tied to the policy rate, further loosening would be constrained. The low inflationary pressure has also been supported by a stable local currency. The shilling has traded within a narrow band of Ksh100/US Dollas-Ksh.103/US Dollars in 2018, thereby serving as a nominal anchor to inflationary expectations.
Kenya Economic Update October 2019
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Author : Weltbankgruppe
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Kenya Economic Update October 2019 written by Weltbankgruppe and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
Kenya continues to experience steady economic growth, with real GDP expanding on average by about 5.6 percent over the last five years (2014-2018). In 2019, however, economic activity has softened primarily due to lower agricultural output and weak private sector investment. As a result, the World Bank projects Kenya's growth at 5.8 percent for 2019 and settling at around 5.9 percent over the medium term. The weakening of private investment partly reflects crowding out from widening fiscal deficits and relatedly limited access to credit by the private sector (growing by about 6.3 percent in August 2019). Against this backdrop, it is my great pleasure to present the twentieth edition of the World Bank's Kenya Economic Update.
Kenya Economic Update April 2018 No 17
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Author : Weltbankgruppe
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Kenya Economic Update April 2018 No 17 written by Weltbankgruppe and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
After multiple headwinds dampened growth in 2017, a nascent rebound in economic activity in Kenya is gaining momentum. Notwithstanding the projected rebound in economic activity risks are tilted to the downside. The Government of Kenya has outlined four big priority areas for the next five years. These are agricultural and food security, affordable housing, increased share of manufacturing, and universal health coverage. Support from the public and more importantly the private sector will be required to achieve the big 4. Specific measures to create fiscal room to support the big 4 can include: enhancing domestic revenue mobilization through the rationalization of tax exemptions; slowing the pace of expansion of recurrent spending; and improving the efficiency of spending. Boosting agricultural productivity and food security will require re-allocating more resources to agriculture and improving the efficiency of current spending in the sector. To eradicate poverty by 2030, Kenya will need a combination of higher growth, more inclusive growth, and growth that is increasingly driven by the private sector and translates into more rapid poverty reduction.
Kenya Economic Update April 2018 No 17
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Author : World Bank Group
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Kenya Economic Update April 2018 No 17 written by World Bank Group and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
After multiple headwinds dampened growth in 2017, a nascent rebound in economic activity in Kenya is gaining momentum. Notwithstanding the projected rebound in economic activity risks are tilted to the downside. The Government of Kenya has outlined four big priority areas for the next five years. These are agricultural and food security, affordable housing, increased share of manufacturing, and universal health coverage. Support from the public and more importantly the private sector will be required to achieve the big 4. Specific measures to create fiscal room to support the big 4 can include: enhancing domestic revenue mobilization through the rationalization of tax exemptions; slowing the pace of expansion of recurrent spending; and improving the efficiency of spending. Boosting agricultural productivity and food security will require re-allocating more resources to agriculture and improving the efficiency of current spending in the sector. To eradicate poverty by 2030, Kenya will need a combination of higher growth, more inclusive growth, and growth that is increasingly driven by the private sector and translates into more rapid poverty reduction.
Kenya Economic Update October 2016
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Author : World Bank Group
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Kenya Economic Update October 2016 written by World Bank Group and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
Kenya Economic Update October 2016
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Author : Weltbankgruppe
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Kenya Economic Update October 2016 written by Weltbankgruppe and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
Kenya is one of the bright spots in Sub-Saharan Africa. With economic growth rates sustained at above 5 percent, Kenya has outperformed the regional average, for 8 consecutive years. Robust domestic demand emanating from private consumption and government investment are the key drivers of growth, underpinned by a stable macroeconomic environment, lower oil prices, diversification, improved security perceptions, and ongoing structural reforms. Medium term economic prospects for Kenya remain robust. Ongoing public infrastructure investments will continue to play a 'crowding-in' role, easing transport and energy costs, and supporting economic expansion in construction andindustry. Private consumption will drive service sector growth, while agricultural sector will remain largely dependent on favorable weather conditions and timely availability of inputs. Though oil prices are expected to pick-up over the forecast horizon, Kenya's external sector account will remain healthy on account of a steady increase in remittances, a rebound in tourism and a rise in foreign direct Investment (FDI). Nonetheless, there exist downside risks that can dent future growth prospects. Risks to Kenya's future growth prospects that are not included in our baseline outlook emanate from both external and domestic sources. On the external front, these include weaker than expected growth in the global economy, volatility in global financial markets and a spike in oil prices. On the domestic front, these include delays to fiscal consolidation, adverse weather developments, and potential uncertainties associated with the run-up to 2017 elections that could lead to a wait-and-see attitude by investors, thereby dampening short-term growth prospects.
Kenya
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1995-12-15
Kenya written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995-12-15 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper reviews economic developments in Kenya during 1990–95. Real GDP growth decelerated from 4.3 percent in 1990 to close to zero in 1992/93. Inflation accelerated from 12 percent in the 12-month period ended December 1989 to 34 percent in March 1993. The central government’s budget deficit increased from 6.7 percent in 1989/90 to 11.4 percent of GDP in 1992/93. Broad money growth (M2) accelerated from 21 percent in the 12-month period ended December 1991 to 36 percent in March 1993.
Kenya
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Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-10-23
Kenya written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-10-23 with Business & Economics categories.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Kenya has maintained strong growth in recent years. External imbalances have narrowed, strengthening resilience to shocks. The business environment continues to improve, supporting private investment. However, a severe drought, an extended presidential election, and weak bank lending—due in part to interest rate controls—slowed growth in 2017. Kenya’s medium-term growth prospects are favorable, supported by infrastructure investment and an improving business environment. However, continued strong growth and macroeconomic stability hinge on the implementation of reforms. In addition, headwinds from fiscal consolidation and weak credit growth will weigh on economic activity in the near term.