Lac Semiannual Report October 2017
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Lac Semiannual Report October 2017
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Author : Vegh, Carlos A.
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2017-11-10
Lac Semiannual Report October 2017 written by Vegh, Carlos A. and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-10 with Business & Economics categories.
"After a growth slowdown that lasted six years (including a contraction of 1.3 percent last year), the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region is finally expected to resume positive growth in 2017, with market analysts forecasting real GDP growth of 1.2 percent for 2017 and 2.3 percent for 2018. The recovery, particularly in South America, will be led by a strong rebound in Argentina, which is expected to grow by 2.8 percent in 2017 and 3.0 percent in 2018, and Brazil, which is expected to resume positive growth as well, expanding by 0.7 percent in 2017 and 2.3 in 2018, after contracting for two consecutive years. The usual external drivers of growth (particularly commodity prices, and growth in China and U.S.) are expected to remain relatively neutral, which points to the need for the region to reinforce its own sources of growth (e.g., structural reforms, investment in infrastructure, and further international trade both within and outside the region). Unfortunately, the region finds itself in a weak fiscal situation with 28 out of 32 countries with an overall fiscal deficit, which implies that a gradual but sustained fiscal consolidation will be needed in the years ahead. The report's main focus (Chapter 2) is on the monetary policy dilemma faced by countries in LAC. When a typical commodity-exporter country in LAC is hit by, say, a negative terms of trade shock, real GDP falls, the currency depreciates, and inflation increases. The Central Bank faces the dilemma of (i) increasing policy rates to defend the currency/fight inflation, but at the cost of aggravating the recession or (ii) reducing the policy rate, thus stimulating output, but encouraging further depreciation and inflation. Traditionally, LAC countries have chosen the first option and have thus pursued procyclical monetary policy (i.e., increasing policy rates in bad times). Recently, however, many countries have been able to switch and become countercyclical (i.e., reducing policy rates in bad times), which enables them to prop up the economy in recessionary times (which is particularly important when lack of fiscal space precludes countercyclical fiscal policy)."
Lac Semiannual Report October 2017
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Author : Carlos A. Vegh
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Lac Semiannual Report October 2017 written by Carlos A. Vegh and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
After a growth slowdown that lasted six years (including a contraction of 1.3 percent last year), the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region is finally expected to resume positive growth in 2017, with market analysts forecasting real GDP growth of 1.2 percent for 2017 and 2.3 percent for 2018. The recovery, particularly in South America, will be led by a strong rebound in Argentina, which is expected to grow by 2.8 percent in 2017 and 3.0 percent in 2018, and Brazil, which is expected to resume positive growth as well, expanding by 0.7 percent in 2017 and 2.3 in 2018, after contracting for two consecutive years. The usual external drivers of growth (particularly commodity prices, and growth in China and U.S.) are expected to remain relatively neutral, which points to the need for the region to reinforce its own sources of growth (e.g., structural reforms, investment in infrastructure, and further international trade both within and outside the region). Unfortunately, the region finds itself in a weak fiscal situation with 28 out of 32 countries with an overall fiscal deficit, which implies that a gradual but sustained fiscal consolidation will be needed in the years ahead.The report's main focus (Chapter 2) is on the monetary policy dilemma faced by countries in LAC. When a typical commodity-exporter country in LAC is hit by, say, a negative terms of trade shock, real GDP falls, the currency depreciates, and inflation increases. The Central Bank faces the dilemma of (i) increasing policy rates to defend the currency/fight inflation, but at the cost of aggravating the recession or (ii) reducing the policy rate, thus stimulating output, but encouraging further depreciation and inflation. Traditionally, LAC countries have chosen the first option and have thus pursued procyclical monetary policy (i.e., increasing policy rates in bad times). Recently, however, many countries have been able to switch and become countercyclical (i.e., reducing policy rates in bad times), which enables them to prop up the economy in recessionary times (which is particularly important when lack of fiscal space precludes countercyclical fiscal policy).
Global Economic Prospects January 2018
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Author : World Bank Group
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2018-01-26
Global Economic Prospects January 2018 written by World Bank Group and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-01-26 with Business & Economics categories.
The global economy is in a broad-based cyclical recovery. Investment, manufacturing and trade are on the rebound. Financing conditions are benign, monetary policies are generally accommodative, and the worst impacts of the recent commodity price collapse have begun to dissipate. However, the global economic outlook remains clouded by a number of risks. These include the possibility of financial market disruptions, rising protectionist sentiment, and heightened geopolitical tensions. Of particular concern is evidence of subdued productivity and slowing potential growth. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes a chapter on the causes of the broad-based slowing of potential growth and suggests remedies. The report also contains Special Focus sections on the impact of the 2014-2016 oil price collapse and the relationship between education demographics and global inequality. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.
The Evolving Geography Of Productivity And Employment
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Author : Elena Ianchovichina
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2024-03-22
The Evolving Geography Of Productivity And Employment written by Elena Ianchovichina and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-22 with Business & Economics categories.
The Evolving Geography of Productivity and Employment: Ideas for Inclusive Growth through a Territorial Lens in Latin America and the Caribbean employs a territorial lens to understand the persistently low economic growth rates in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Using new data and methods, it shows that deindustrialization, distance, and divisions offer intertwined explanations for an urban productivity paradox in the LAC region: its highly dense cities should be among the world’s most productive, yet they are not. LAC cities have been held back by lack of dynamism, poor connectivity, and divisions into disconnected poor and affluent neighborhoods. Deindustrialization has shifted urban employment, especially in the largest LAC cities, away from manufacturing and toward less dynamic, low-productivity nontradable activities, such as retail trade and personal and other services, that profit less from agglomeration, especially in highly congested cities. Although employment in urban tradable services has risen, the increase has not been strong enough to offset the decline in manufacturing employment. Meanwhile, intercity connectivity issues have undermined the performance of the region’s network of cities by restricting market access and firms’ ability to benefit from specialization in smaller cities. Within cities, poor connectivity and residential labor market segregation have limited the gains from agglomeration to neighborhoods in central business districts where formal firms operate. Informality has persisted in low-income neighborhoods, where residents face multiple deprivations. By contrast, many agricultural and mining areas have benefited from the strong demand for commodities by China and other fast-growing economies, particularly during the Golden Decade (2003†“13), leading to a decline in territorial inequality in most countries in the region. The report concludes that to encourage inclusive growth, countries must more efficiently transform natural wealth into human capital, infrastructure, and institutions and improve the competitiveness of the urban economy. It then sketches out the contours of such a development strategy, identifying policy priorities at the national, regional, and local levels.
The Promise Of Integration
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Author : Guillermo Beylis
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2023-04-04
The Promise Of Integration written by Guillermo Beylis and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-04-04 with Business & Economics categories.
The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region has proved to be relatively resilient in the face of increased debt stress, stubborn inflation, and uncertainty arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Income and employment have largely recovered from the pandemic, poverty has receded, and markets remain guardedly optimistic about the near future. However, global uncertainty is rising, including a recent wave of bank failures in the US and Europe. Strengthening resilience, both on the health and macroeconomic fronts, will be paramount. Progress remains pending in both vaccination coverage and health system preparedness, while the institutionality of macroeconomic policy in some countries is being questioned. The evolution of the global economy is providing two new areas of opportunity for the region: the trend toward nearshoring-moving production closer to the US and European markets-and the imperative to combat climate change, which is giving the region a new comparative advantage in sun, wind, hydro, and natural capital. Taking advantage of these will require greater integration into the global economy. Yet, paradoxically, in the face of these opportunities. LAC is becoming less integrated. Trade intensity has largely stagnated, and foreign direct investment (FDI) to most countries has declined. Beyond the long-term structural reforms needed to reduce systemic risk, raise the level and quality of education, invest in infrastructure, and ensure well-functioning financial markets, this report calls to preserve the reputational gains of the past 20 years in terms of macro stability and streamlining regulation dealing with customs and transport to lower the cost of doing business in the region. Export promotion agencies and investment promotion agencies can also help as they have proven track records. A comprehensive approach to both shorter- and longer-term reforms could move LAC toward a renewed and more dynamic engagement with the global economy.
La Evoluci N Geogr Fica De La Productividad Y El Empleo
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Author : Elena Ianchovichina
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2024-03-19
La Evoluci N Geogr Fica De La Productividad Y El Empleo written by Elena Ianchovichina and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-19 with Business & Economics categories.
En La evolución geográfica de la productividad y el empleo: Ideas para lograr un crecimiento inclusivo a través de una perspectiva territorial en América Latina y el Caribe se utiliza una perspectiva territorial para comprender las tasas de crecimiento económico persistentemente bajas de América Latina y el Caribe (ALC). Utilizando nuevos datos y métodos, se muestra que la desindustrialización, la distancia y las divisiones son factores interrelacionados que explican la paradoja de la productividad urbana en ALC, a saber: las ciudades densamente pobladas deberían estar entre las más productivas del mundo, pero no lo están. Las ciudades de ALC se han visto frenadas por la falta de dinamismo, la mala conectividad y las divisiones en barrios pobres y prósperos desconectados. A causa de la desindustrialización, el empleo urbano se ha desplazado, especialmente en las ciudades más grandes de la región, de las manufacturas a actividades no comercializables menos dinámicas y de baja productividad, como el comercio minorista y los servicios personales y de otra índole, que se benefician menos con la aglomeración, sobre todo en ciudades muy congestionadas. Si bien el empleo en el sector de los servicios comercializables urbanos ha aumentado, el alza ha sido lo suficientemente firme como para compensar la disminución del empleo en el sector manufacturero. Al mismo tiempo, los problemas de conectividad interurbana han menoscabado el desempeño de la red de ciudades de la región, dado que restringen el acceso a los mercados y la capacidad de las empresas para beneficiarse de la especialización reubicándose en ciudades más pequeñas. Dentro de las ciudades, la conectividad deficiente y la segregación del mercado laboral residencial han limitado los beneficios de la aglomeración a los vecindarios de los distritos comerciales centrales donde operan las empresas formales. La informalidad ha persistido en los barrios de bajos ingresos, cuyos habitantes enfrentan múltiples privaciones. En cambio, muchas zonas agrícolas y mineras se han beneficiado con la fuerte demanda de productos básicos por parte de China y otras economías de rápido crecimiento, particularmente durante la década dorada (2003-13), lo que llevó a una disminución de la desigualdad territorial en la mayoría de los países de la región. Se concluye que, para fomentar el crecimiento inclusivo, los países deben transformar más eficientemente la riqueza natural en capital humano, infraestructura e instituciones, y mejorar la competitividad de la economía urbana. En tal sentido, se esbozan los contornos de dicha strategia de desarrollo, identificando las prioridades en materia de políticas a nivel nacional, regional y local.
World Economic Outlook October 2018
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : zh-CN
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-01-02
World Economic Outlook October 2018 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7 percent for 2018–19—0.2 percentage point lower for both years than forecast in April. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures implemented or approved between April and mid-September, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies arising from country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. The balance of risks to the global growth forecast has shifted to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty. Several of the downside risks highlighted in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO)—such as rising trade barriers and a reversal of capital flows to emerging market economies with weaker fundamentals and higher political risk—have become more pronounced or have partially materialized. Meanwhile, the potential for upside surprises has receded, given the tightening of financial conditions in some parts of the world, higher trade costs, slow implementation of reforms recommended in the past, and waning growth momentum.
Regional Economic Outlook April 2018 Western Hemisphere Department
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-05-11
Regional Economic Outlook April 2018 Western Hemisphere Department written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-11 with Business & Economics categories.
The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.
Recovering Growth
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Author : World Bank
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-10-06
Recovering Growth written by World Bank and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-10-06 with Business & Economics categories.
After its worst economic crisis in 100 years, Latin America and the Caribbean countries are emerging from the COVID†?19 pandemic. The need to recover dynamic, inclusive, and sustainable growth to redress both the legacy of the pandemic and long†?standing social needs has never been more acute. However, despite progress in some areas, the region is facing a weaker recovery than expected given the favorable international tailwinds and is likely return to the low growth rates of the 2010s. Moreover, growth could be further slowed by both internal and external factors: the emergence of a new variant of the virus, a rise in international interest rates to combat global inflation, and high levels of debt in both the private and public sector. Beyond offering the current macroeconomic outlook of the region and the near†?term challenges it faces, this report explores three broad areas where growth†?advancing policies and reforms could be undertaken within a constrained fiscal context: mobilizing sources of revenue that appear to be growthneutral; improving public spending efficiency to free up resources for other purposes; and reallocating spending to areas with highest growth and social impact.
From Known Unknowns To Black Swans
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Author : Carlos A. Vegh
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2018-10-05
From Known Unknowns To Black Swans written by Carlos A. Vegh and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-10-05 with Business & Economics categories.
"After a growth recovery, with an expansion of 1.1 percent in 2017, the region has encountered some bumps in the road. The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region is expected to grow at a modest rate of 0.6 percent in 2018 and 1.6 percent in 2019. This slowdown in the region's recovery is mainly explained by the crisis that started in Argentina in April. the growth slowdown in Brazil. and the continued deterioration of Venezuela. Furthermore, net capital inflows to the region have fallen dramatically since early 2018, bringing once again to the fore the risks faced by LAC. In addition, natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes have brought devastation to the region with disturbing frequency. The core of the report analyzes the foundations of risk. develops a theoretical framework to price risk instruments, and reviews how LAC has managed risk in practice."