Methods For Decision Making In An Uncertain Environment
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Methods For Decision Making In An Uncertain Environment Proceedings Of The Xvii Sigef Congress
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Author : Jaime Gil-aluja
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2012-05-28
Methods For Decision Making In An Uncertain Environment Proceedings Of The Xvii Sigef Congress written by Jaime Gil-aluja and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-05-28 with Computers categories.
This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the XVII SIGEF Congress. It presents fuzzy logic, neural networks and other intelligent techniques applied to economic and business problems. This book is very useful for researchers and graduate students aiming to introduce themselves to the field of quantitative techniques for overcoming uncertain environments. The contributors are experienced scholars of different countries who offer real world applications of these mathematical techniques./a
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty
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Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-04-04
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-04 with Business & Economics categories.
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Environmental Decisions In The Face Of Uncertainty
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Author : Institute of Medicine
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2013-05-20
Environmental Decisions In The Face Of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-05-20 with Political Science categories.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.
Uncertain Multi Attribute Decision Making
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Author : Zeshui Xu
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-10-06
Uncertain Multi Attribute Decision Making written by Zeshui Xu and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-10-06 with Business & Economics categories.
This book introduces methods for uncertain multi-attribute decision making including uncertain multi-attribute group decision making and their applications to supply chain management, investment decision making, personnel assessment, redesigning products, maintenance services, military system efficiency evaluation. Multi-attribute decision making, also known as multi-objective decision making with finite alternatives, is an important component of modern decision science. The theory and methods of multi-attribute decision making have been extensively applied in engineering, economics, management and military contexts, such as venture capital project evaluation, facility location, bidding, development ranking of industrial sectors and so on. Over the last few decades, great attention has been paid to research on multi-attribute decision making in uncertain settings, due to the increasing complexity and uncertainty of supposedly objective aspects and the fuzziness of human thought. This book can be used as a reference guide for researchers and practitioners working in e.g. the fields of operations research, information science, management science and engineering. It can also be used as a textbook for postgraduate and senior undergraduate students.
Scientific Methods For The Treatment Of Uncertainty In Social Sciences
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Author : Jaime Gil-Aluja
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2015-06-17
Scientific Methods For The Treatment Of Uncertainty In Social Sciences written by Jaime Gil-Aluja and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-06-17 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book is a collection of selected papers presented at the SIGEF conference, held at the Faculty of Economics and Business of the University of Girona (Spain), 06-08 July, 2015. This edition of the conference has been presented with the slogan “Scientific methods for the treatment of uncertainty in social sciences”. There are different ways for dealing with uncertainty in management. The book focuses on soft computing theories and their role in assessing uncertainty in a complex world. It gives a comprehensive overview of quantitative management topics and discusses some of the most recent developments in all the areas of business and management in soft computing including Decision Making, Expert Systems and Forgotten Effects Theory, Forecasting Models, Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Sets, Modelling and Simulation Techniques, Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms and Optimization and Control. The book might be of great interest for anyone working in the area of management and business economics and might be especially useful for scientists and graduate students doing research in these fields.
Structured Decision Making
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Author : Robin Gregory
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-02-17
Structured Decision Making written by Robin Gregory and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-02-17 with Mathematics categories.
This book outlines the creative process of making environmental management decisions using the approach called Structured Decision Making. It is a short introductory guide to this popular form of decision making and is aimed at environmental managers and scientists. This is a distinctly pragmatic label given to ways for helping individuals and groups think through tough multidimensional choices characterized by uncertain science, diverse stakeholders, and difficult tradeoffs. This is the everyday reality of environmental management, yet many important decisions currently are made on an ad hoc basis that lacks a solid value-based foundation, ignores key information, and results in selection of an inferior alternative. Making progress – in a way that is rigorous, inclusive, defensible and transparent – requires combining analytical methods drawn from the decision sciences and applied ecology with deliberative insights from cognitive psychology, facilitation and negotiation. The authors review key methods and discuss case-study examples based in their experiences in communities, boardrooms, and stakeholder meetings. The goal of this book is to lay out a compelling guide that will change how you think about making environmental decisions. Visit www.wiley.com/go/gregory/ to access the figures and tables from the book.
Uncertainty In Entrepreneurial Decision Making
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Author : Panagiotis E. Petrakis
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-04-29
Uncertainty In Entrepreneurial Decision Making written by Panagiotis E. Petrakis and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making fills an existing gap in understanding three key concepts of business management: entrepreneurship, uncertainty, and strategy. By extending the impact of uncertainty on entrepreneurship and the role of strategy in reducing uncertainty, Petrakis and Konstantakopoulou emphasize that uncertainty can be converted into creative advantage. Given that the business environment is changing both very quickly and very often, any wrong decisions taken can lead to devastation. This exciting new volume explains the reasons why we cannot see the complete the future and our position in it. This uncertainty affects entrepreneurship and how it can be turned into a competitive advantage for businesses sustainability.
Fuzzy Decision Analysis Multi Attribute Decision Making Approach
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Author : Farhad Hosseinzadeh Lotfi
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2023-11-24
Fuzzy Decision Analysis Multi Attribute Decision Making Approach written by Farhad Hosseinzadeh Lotfi and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-11-24 with Computers categories.
Authored by a leading expert in the field, this book introduces an innovative methodology that harnesses the power of fuzzy logic to enhance decision-making in multi-attribute scenarios. In a world of complexity and uncertainty, effective decision-making is paramount. Springer proudly presents a cutting-edge publication that revolutionizes decision analysis: "Fuzzy Decision Analysis: Multi-attribute Decision-Making Approach." This book stands at the forefront of decision analysis, introducing the integration of fuzzy logic into multi-attribute decision-making. It is a transformative journey into the realm of advanced decision analysis. It book not only equips you with the knowledge to comprehend the theoretical underpinnings but also empowers you to apply these insights in practical scenarios. This book serves as your indispensable companion. Its comprehensive coverage serves as a beacon, guiding you through the intricate maze of fuzzy logic and multi-attribute decision-making, ultimately empowering you to embrace innovation and master the art of making well-informed decisions in an ever-changing world.
Irreversible Decisions Under Uncertainty
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Author : Svetlana Boyarchenko
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2007-08-26
Irreversible Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Svetlana Boyarchenko and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-08-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Here, two highly experienced authors present an alternative approach to optimal stopping problems. The basic ideas and techniques of the approach can be explained much simpler than the standard methods in the literature on optimal stopping problems. The monograph will teach the reader to apply the technique to many problems in economics and finance, including new ones. From the technical point of view, the method can be characterized as option pricing via the Wiener-Hopf factorization.
The Cognitive Basis For Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty Research Programs Controversies
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Author : Samuel Shye
language : en
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Release Date : 2025-03-13
The Cognitive Basis For Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty Research Programs Controversies written by Samuel Shye and has been published by Frontiers Media SA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-03-13 with Science categories.
This issue aims to portray, justify, advance, contrast, and illustrate research programs in the domain of cognitive decision-making under risk and uncertainty, where such research programs are intended to promote theories, models, or conceptual frameworks for: • Prediction of empirical observations, • Descriptions of empirical results, likely or rationalized to lead to predictions (e.g., models with free parameters whose values are part of a hypothesis to be tested; or cross validation of descriptive-model results); • Generalizations of many specific empirical results; • Normative models alternative to Expected Utility Theory (EUT) • Replications of published results concerning any of the above. Any of the above may concern any aspect (statistic) of empirical data, including: • Individual or group behavior itself (e.g., prediction of people's actual choices); • differences or difference in rankings of Individual or group behavior • distribution of responses for the general purpose of promoting scientific understanding of individual or collective human behavior in the domain of decision-making under risk or uncertainty. In particular, this issue may shed light on the controversy between Behavioral Economics and Cognitive Economics. The first relates to Kahneman and Tversky's program of Heuristics and Biases and the normative model of formal rationality, whereas the second is connected to Simon, Gigerenzer, and Viale's program of simple adaptive heuristics and the normative model of ecological bounded rationality. Both of which aim to improve economics on a cognitive basis.