Modeling And Forecasting Monthly Tourism Arrivals To Aruba Since Covid 19 Pandemic
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Modeling And Forecasting Monthly Tourism Arrivals To Aruba Since Covid 19 Pandemic
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Author : Olga Bespalova
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-11-11
Modeling And Forecasting Monthly Tourism Arrivals To Aruba Since Covid 19 Pandemic written by Olga Bespalova and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-11-11 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper improves short-term forecasting models of monthly tourism arrivals by estimating and evaluating a time-series model with exogenous regressors (ARIMA-X) using a case of Aruba, a small open tourism-dependent economy. Given importance of the US market for Aruba, it investigates informational value of Google Searches originating in the USA, flight capacity utilization on the US air-carriers, and per capita demand of the US consumers, given the volatility index in stock markets (VIX). It yields several insights. First, flight capacity is the best variable to account for the travel restrictions during the pandemic. Second, US real personal consumption expenditure becomes a more significnat predictor than income as the former better captured impact of the COVID-19 restrictions on the consumers’ behavior, while income boosted by the pandemic fiscal support was not fully directed to spending. Third, intercept correction improves the model in the estimation period. Finally, the pandemic changed econometric relationships between the tourism arrivals and their main determinants, and accuracy of the forecast models. Going forward, the analysts should re-estimate the models. Out-of-sample forecasts with 5 percent confidence intervals are produced for 18 months ahead.
Tourism In The Post Pandemic World
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Author : Ms.Manuela Goretti
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-02-19
Tourism In The Post Pandemic World written by Ms.Manuela Goretti and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.
Econometric Modelling And Forecasting Of Tourism Demand
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Author : Doris Chenguang Wu
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2022-10-27
Econometric Modelling And Forecasting Of Tourism Demand written by Doris Chenguang Wu and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-10-27 with Business & Economics categories.
This insightful and timely volume provides a succinct, expert-led introduction to the latest developments in advanced econometric methodologies in the context of tourism demand modelling and forecasting. Written by a plethora of worldwide experts on this topic, this book offers a comprehensive approach to tourism econometrics. Accurate demand forecasts are crucial to decision-making in the tourism industry and this book provides real-life tourism applications and the corresponding R code alongside theoretical foundations, in order to enhance understanding and practice amongst its readers. The methodologies introduced include general to specific modelling, cointegration, vector autoregression, time-varying parameter modelling, spatiotemporal econometric models, mixed-frequency forecasting, hybrid forecasting models, forecasting combination techniques, density forecasting, judgemental forecasting, scenario forecasting under crisis, and web-based tourism forecasting. Embellished with insightful figures and tables throughout, this book is an invaluable resource for those using advanced econometric methodologies in their studies and research, including both undergraduate and postgraduate students, researchers, and practitioners.
Tourism Demand Modelling And Forecasting
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Author : Haiyan Song
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2000
Tourism Demand Modelling And Forecasting written by Haiyan Song and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Tourism categories.
A textbook for a graduate or final-year undergraduate course in tourism studies that might also find interest among researchers and practitioners who want to apply recent developments in econometric modeling and forecasting to tourism demand analysis. Song and Witt (both management in the service sector, U. of Surrey, Britain) begin with the fundamentals of tourism demand analysis, and the problems of traditional modeling and forecasting. Then they explore the general- to-specific approach, the time-varying parameter model, and the panel- data approach. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Cyprus
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Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-05-28
Cyprus written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-05-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Cyprus: Selected Issues
Powering The Digital Economy Opportunities And Risks Of Artificial Intelligence In Finance
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Author : El Bachir Boukherouaa
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-10-22
Powering The Digital Economy Opportunities And Risks Of Artificial Intelligence In Finance written by El Bachir Boukherouaa and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-10-22 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
Diversion Of Tourism Flows In The Asia Pacific Region Lessons For Covid 19 Recovery
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Author : Vybhavi Balasundharam
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-08-20
Diversion Of Tourism Flows In The Asia Pacific Region Lessons For Covid 19 Recovery written by Vybhavi Balasundharam and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-08-20 with Business & Economics categories.
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a collapse in international tourism, severely impacting the tourism-dependent economies in the Asia & Pacific region. Once countries start reopening, tourism diversion effects could accelerate the recovery in countries that establish themselves as more attractive travel destinations than competitors. We investigate the impact of previous shocks in tourism competitor countries on visitor inflows, with a particular focus on tourism-dependent Pacific Island Countries (PICs). We find that PICs were generally resilient to external shocks and benefitted from diversion effects for certain types of shocks. For example, the share of departures from Australia to PICs increased by 12 percent during the SARS outbreak. We then derive policy implications for the post-COVID-19 revival of inbound tourism to PICs and lessons for the future.
Singapore
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-07-22
Singapore written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-07-22 with Business & Economics categories.
External trade plays an important role in Singapore’s economy, providing an important share of total value added. Singapore’s exports have a relatively large import share; however, they also have a high level of complexity. As emphasized in previous studies, value-added in exports plays an important role in trade elasticities. The paper finds evidence that this is indeed the case for Singapore’s export products. Products that have higher domestic value-added share also tend to have higher export price elasticity. Economic complexity is also related to export price elasticities: higher economic complexity is associated with lower price elasticity of exports. This relationship is stronger within certain product segments such as the machinery, mechanical appliances and computers as well as the pharmaceuticals segments. Trade elasticities are important to understand Singapore’s exchange rate based monetary policy transmission. Exchange rate changes can affect profits and trade volumes differently, depending upon the price pass-through to import and export prices and the price elasticity of exports and imports. The import and export price pass-through can in return depend on trade elasticities. The paper also shows that there is important product heterogeneity with respect to trade elasticities; both across different product groups but also within individual product groups. This implies that structural changes in the product composition of trade can lead to sizeable changes in Singapore’s trade elasticities.
The Distributional Implications Of The Impact Of Fuel Price Increases On Inflation
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Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-11-12
The Distributional Implications Of The Impact Of Fuel Price Increases On Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-11-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Trinity Strikes Back Monetary Independence And Inflation In The Caribbean
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Author : Mr.Serhan Cevik
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-09-20
Trinity Strikes Back Monetary Independence And Inflation In The Caribbean written by Mr.Serhan Cevik and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-20 with Business & Economics categories.
Monetary independence is at the core of the macroeconomic policy trilemma stating that an independent monetary policy, a fixed exchange rate and free movement of capital cannot exist at the same time. This study examines the relationship between monetary autonomy and inflation dynamics in a panel of Caribbean countries over the period 1980–2017. The empirical results show that monetary independence is a significant factor in determining inflation, even after controlling for macroeconomic developments. In other words, greater monetary policy independence, measured as a country’s ability to conduct its own monetary policy for domestic purposes independent of external monetary influences, leads to lower consumer price inflation. This relationship—robust to alternative specifications and estimation methodologies—has clear policy implications, especially for countries that maintain pegged exchange rates relative to the U.S. dollar with a critical bearing on monetary autonomy.