New Evidence On The Expectations Hypothesis Of The Term Structure Of Bond Yields
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New Evidence On The Expectations Hypothesis Of The Term Structure Of Bond Yields
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2003
New Evidence On The Expectations Hypothesis Of The Term Structure Of Bond Yields written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Bonds categories.
"This paper tests the expectations hypothesis (EH) with the data used in Campbell and Shiller's (1991) seminal work on the EH using a Lagrange multiplier test developed recently by Bekaert and Hodrick (2001). This test is applied under the assumption that interest rates are integrated of order one, I(1), as in Campbell and Shiller (1987), and under the assumption that interest rates are stationary. We also extend the literature beyond the bivariate comparisons of long-term and short-term rates which dominates the EH testing literature. In addition, we examine the linkage between the term structure and macrcoeconomic variables. Consistent with the findings of Campbell and Shiller (1991), the EH is rejected at the short end of the maturity spectrum but not at the longer end. The EH is rejected at the longer end of the term structure when more than two rates or the relationship between the term structure and the macroeconomy are considered. Moreover, we find that evaluating the EH using the ratio of the variance of the forecasted long-term rate (or rate spread) under the EH to the observed variance generates misleading information about the merit of the EH"--Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site.
Revisiting The Expectations Hypothesis Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates
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Author : George Bulkley
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Revisiting The Expectations Hypothesis Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates written by George Bulkley and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with categories.
The expectations hypothesis of the term structure has been decisively rejected by a large empirical literature that spans several decades. In this paper, using a newly constructed dataset of synthetic zero coupon bond yields, we show that evidence against the expectations hypothesis became very much weaker following the widespread acceptance of its empirical failure to describe the behavior of interest rates in the early 1990s. Indeed, in the period 1991-2004, the expectations hypothesis cannot be rejected for most bond maturities. These results are consistent with the idea that asset pricing anomalies tend to disappear once they are widely recognized.
The Expectations Theory Of Term Structure
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Author : Johura Begum
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
The Expectations Theory Of Term Structure written by Johura Begum and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
The Yield curve is very prominent in the economics and finance literature to analyze the behavior of households and investors towards bonds markets. In this paper we explore and test the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) of the term structure for a number of international bond markets. We use data at the short and long end maturities for the Treasury bill rate and the Government of Canada bond rate. The sample includes monthly yields for maturities ranging from 1, 3, 5-month treasury bills and 1, 5, 10 and more years for Government of Canada bonds, USA bonds, UK bonds and France bonds. We use the Engle-Granger cointegration test and OLS to estimate the spread between short and long term interest rates, including tests for serial correlation in residuals, and to test the validity of the EH. The EH is rejected in all cases.
A Test Of The Expectations Hypothesis Of The Term Structure Using Cross Section Data
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Author : Richard D. F. Harris
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1998
A Test Of The Expectations Hypothesis Of The Term Structure Using Cross Section Data written by Richard D. F. Harris and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with Interest rates categories.
The Empirical Failure Of The Expectations Hypothesis Of The Term Structure Of Bond Yields
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Author : Lucio Sarno
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
The Empirical Failure Of The Expectations Hypothesis Of The Term Structure Of Bond Yields written by Lucio Sarno and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Bonds categories.
New Hope For The Expectations Hypoithesis Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1987
New Hope For The Expectations Hypoithesis Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1987 with categories.
New Hope For The Expectations Hypothesis Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates
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Author : Kenneth A. Froot
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1990
New Hope For The Expectations Hypothesis Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates written by Kenneth A. Froot and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with categories.
Survey data on interest rate expectations are used to separate the forward interest rate into an expected future rate and a term premium. These components are used to test separately two competing alternative hypotheses in tests of the term structure: that the expectations hypothesis does not hold, and that expected future long rates over- or underreact. to changes in short rates. While the spread consistently fails to predict future interest rate changes, we find that the nature of this failure is different, for short versus long maturities. For short maturities, expected future rates are rational forecasts. The poor predictions of the spread can therefore be attributed to variation in term premia. For longer-term bonds, however, we are unable to reject the expectations theory, in that a steeper yield curve reflects a one-for-one increase in expected future long rates. Here the perverse predictions of the spread reflect investors' failure to raise sufficiently their expectations of future long rates when the short rate rises. We confirm earlier findings that bond rates underreact to short rate changes, but now this result cannot be attributed to the term premium
The Expectations Hypothesis Of The Term Structure Of Bond Yields
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Author : Robert Dittmar
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
The Expectations Hypothesis Of The Term Structure Of Bond Yields written by Robert Dittmar and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with categories.
This paper tests the expectations hypothesis (EH) with the data used in Campbell and Shiller's (1991) seminal work on the EH using a Lagrange multiplier test developed recently by Bekaert and Hodrick (2001). This test is applied under the assumption that interest rates are integrated of order one, I(1), as in Campbell and Shiller (1987), and under the assumption that interest rates are stationary. We also extend the literature beyond the bivariate comparisons of long-term and short-term rates which dominates the EH testing literature. Consistent with the findings of Campbell and Shiller (1991), the EH is rejected at the short end of the maturity spectrum but not at the longer end. However, the EH is rejected at the longer end of the term structure when more than two rates are considered. We also find that the frequently used practice of calculating the ratio of the variance of the forecasted long-term rate (or rate spread) under the EH to the observed variance is not useful for assessing the validity of the EH.
The Expectations Hypothesis For The Longer End Of The Term Structure
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Author : Ron Lange
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2000
The Expectations Hypothesis For The Longer End Of The Term Structure written by Ron Lange and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with categories.
This paper assesses the expectations theory for the longer end of the term structure of Canadian interest rates using three empirical approaches that have received attention in the literature: (i) cointegration tests of the long-run unbiasedness hypothesis; (ii) simulations of a theoretical long-term yield that is consistent with the expectations hypothesis, and (iii) ex post tests of the rational expectations hypothesis. The empirical results in this paper show that the expectations theory has considerable economic and statistical content for explaining movements in Canadian long-term yields. The cointegration results from a vector error-correction model find a long-run relationship between short- and long-term interest rates; the term spread is an unbiased predictor of changes in short-term rates over the long run. The multi-period forecast of changes in future short-term rates from a Campbell-Shiller vector autoregression model can account for most of the variance of long-term yields; the actual long-term yield moves almost one for one with its theoretical counterpart under the expectations hypothesis. The tests of the rational expectations hypothesis on bond yields from 1 to 5 years' maturity find that the term structure beyond 2 years resembles a rational forecast of the weighted average of changes in future short rates.
The Cyclical Behavior Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates
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Author : Reuben A. Kessel
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1965
The Cyclical Behavior Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates written by Reuben A. Kessel and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1965 with Business & Economics categories.