Oil And The Macroeconomy Since The 1970s
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Oil And The Macroeconomy Since The 1970s
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Author : Robert B. Barsky
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004
Oil And The Macroeconomy Since The 1970s written by Robert B. Barsky and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Economic history categories.
Increases in oil prices have been held responsible for recessions, periods of excessive inflation, reduced productivity and lower economic growth. In this paper, we review the arguments supporting such views. First, we highlight some of the conceptual difficulties in assigning a central role to oil price shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations, and we trace how the arguments of proponents of the oil view have evolved in response to these difficulties. Second, we challenge the notion that at least the major oil price movements can be viewed as exogenous with respect to the US macroeconomy. We examine critically the evidence that has led many economists to ascribe a central role to exogenous political events in modeling the oil market, and we provide arguments in favor of 'reverse causality' from macroeconomic variables to oil prices. Third, although none of the more recent oil price shocks has been associated with stagflation in the US economy, a major reason for the continued popularity of the oil shock hypothesis has been the perception that only oil price shocks are able to explain the US stagflation of the 1970s. We show that this is not the case.
The Macroeconomic Effects Of Oil Price Shocks
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Author : Olivier J. Blanchard
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
The Macroeconomic Effects Of Oil Price Shocks written by Olivier J. Blanchard and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Developed countries categories.
We characterize the macroeconomics performance of a set of industrialized economies in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the 1970s and of the last decade, focusing on the differences across episodes. We examine four different hypotheses for the mild effects on inflation and economic activity of the recent increase in the price of oil: (a) good luck (i.e. lack of concurrent adverse shocks), (b) smaller share of oil in production, (c) more flexible labor markets, and (d) improvements in monetary policy. We conclude that all four have played an important role. Keywords: oil, oil price, inflation, credibility, oil share, Great moderation, supply shocks, stagflation, monetary policy, real wage rigidities. JEL Classifications: E20, E32, E52.
International Dimensions Of Monetary Policy
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Author : Jordi Galí
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2010-03-15
International Dimensions Of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-03-15 with Business & Economics categories.
United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Oil Price Shocks Can They Account For The Stagflation In The 1970s
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Author : Ben Hunt
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2005-11-01
Oil Price Shocks Can They Account For The Stagflation In The 1970s written by Ben Hunt and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-11-01 with categories.
Using a variant of the IMF's Global Economy Model (GEM), featuring energy as both an intermediate input into production and a final consumption good, this paper examines the macroeconomic implications of large increases in the price of energy. Within a fully optimizing framework with nominal and real rigidities arising from costly adjustment, large increases in energy prices can generate an inflation response similar to that seen in the 1970s if the monetary authority misperceives the economy's supply capacity and workers resist the erosion in their real consumption wages resulting from the price increase. In the absence of either of these two responses, the model suggests that energy price shocks cannot generate the type of stagflation witnessed in the 1970s. Further, even allowing for these two effects, the results do not suggest that the increase in the price of oil in late 1973 and early 1974 can fully explain the extent of the slowing in real activity or the magnitude of the acceleration in inflation experienced in the United States in 1974 and 1975.
Essays On The Macroeconomic Effects Of Oil Price Shocks On The U S Economy
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Author : Romita Mukherjee
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Essays On The Macroeconomic Effects Of Oil Price Shocks On The U S Economy written by Romita Mukherjee and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.
A large volume of research has acknowledged the role of oil price shocks to generate a significant stagflationary impact on U.S. and other oil importing nations. Recent research however shows a paradigm shift in this oil price-macroeconomy relationship since the mid 1980s, during which the U.S. economy has been relatively resilient to oil shocks. Both output contraction and inflationary expectations have been milder in the post mid 1980s than before. But the 2007-08 oil shock episode has re-emphasized the immense impact of the ebbs and flows of oil prices on the U.S. economys ups and downs. Global oil price peaked at $148 a barrel in June 2008. With the mortgage crisis and credit crunch, oil was another blow too many. The U.S. economy swamped into one of the greatest recessions of all times. According to Hamilton (2009), the 2007-08 oil shock had a significant contribution to the recent recession. While a lot of work have been done on the effects of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy, relatively little work has investigated what triggers oil price increase. My research illustrates why it is important to study the cause of an oil price rise. First, the effects of oil price rise on the macro variables depend heavily on what causes the shock. Secondly, whereas the oil price hikes of the 1970s and early 1980s can mostly be attributed to exogenous events in OPEC (Arab Oil Embargo, Iran-Iraq War, Iranian Revolution), a significant source of oil price spikes in the post mid 1980 era have been an increase in global oil demand confronting stagnating oil production. From a policy perspective, of course, policies aimed at dealing with higher oil prices must take careful account of what causes oil prices to rise. Empirical research that demonstrates the resilience of U.S. economy to oil price shocks builds on the implicit assumption that as oil price varies, everything else in the global economy is held constant. Thus all variations in oil prices are taken as alike and exogenous. This overlooks the possibility that oil price rise sparked off by diverse events can potentially lead to different repercussions. This thesis is an attempt to develop framework to study the endogenous increase in oil price. The oil price increase arises from increase in U.S. growth rate, increase in foreign growth rate and a purely exogenous oil supply shock by OPEC. The most important result is that the source of oil price rise has changed after the mid 1980s - whereas before the mid 1980s, bulk of the variation in oil price was due to supply shocks by OPEC, post mid 1980s, most of the variation in oil price is explained by increase in U.S. and foreign growth. Furthermore, if the origin of the oil price rise is the same, then the responses of most U.S. macroeconomic variables display remarkable similarity in the pre and post mid 1980s. This result gives us a new way to look at the resilience of the U.S. economic activity to oil price rise since the mid 1980s. The resilience can be explained to a significant extent by the fact that the type of shocks resulting in oil price rise has changed.
Economic Policy And The Great Stagflation
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Author : Alan S. Blinder
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2013-09-11
Economic Policy And The Great Stagflation written by Alan S. Blinder and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-09-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation discusses the national economic policy and economics as a policy-oriented science. This book summarizes what economists do and do not know about the inflation and recession that affected the U.S. economy during the years of the Great Stagflation in the mid-1970s. The topics discussed include the basic concepts of stagflation, turbulent economic history of 1971-1976, anatomy of the great recession and inflation, and legacy of the Great Stagflation. The relation of wage-price controls, fiscal policy, and monetary policy to the Great Stagflation is also elaborated. This publication is beneficial to economists and students researching on the history of the Great Stagflation and policy errors of the 1970s.
Macroeconomic Impacts Of Energy Shocks
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Author : H.G. Huntington
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2016-10-19
Macroeconomic Impacts Of Energy Shocks written by H.G. Huntington and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-10-19 with Business & Economics categories.
Large-scale macroeconomic models have been used extensively to analyze a wide range of important economic issues. They were originally developed to study the economy's response to monetary and fiscal policies. During the 1970s these models were expanded and revised to track the inflationary processes and to incorporate key energy variables so that they could be used to examine the impacts of energy price shocks.This study compares the responses of 14 prominent macroeconomic models to supply-side shocks in the form of sudden energy price increases or decreases and to policies for lessening the impacts of price jumps. Four energy price shocks were examined: oil price increases of 50 and 20 percent, an oil price reduction of 20 percent, and an 80 percent increase in domestic natural gas prices. Five policy responses were considered for offsetting the GNP impacts of the larger oil price increase: monetary accommodation, an income tax rate reduction, an increase in the investment tax credit for equipment, a reduction in the employer's payroll tax rate, and an oil stockpile release.The study was conducted by a working group comprised of about 40 modelers and potential model users from universities, business, and government. As in previous EMF studies, the group pursued two broad goals. Firstly, they sought to understand the models themselves by identifying important similarities as well as structural differences. Secondly, they sought to use the models to sharpen their understanding of energy shocks and of the related policy issues. Their conclusions appear as the first chapter in this volume, the remaining chapters providing more technical treatment of the key structural differences among the participating models as well as their use for evaluating energy policies.This volume is addressed particularly to those interested in the energy shock issue, as well as to those with a broader interest in macroeconomic models and policies.
Oil Prices And The Global Economy
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Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-01-27
Oil Prices And The Global Economy written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-27 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Oil And The Macroeconomy Revisited
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Author : Mark A. Hooker
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1999
Oil And The Macroeconomy Revisited written by Mark A. Hooker and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Macroeconomics categories.
The Oil Crisis In The 1970s And Its Consequences For The World Economy
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Author : David Wieblitz
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016-02-29
The Oil Crisis In The 1970s And Its Consequences For The World Economy written by David Wieblitz and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-02-29 with categories.
Essay from the year 2004 in the subject Business economics - Economic and Social History, grade: 2,0, Turku School of Economics (Department of economics), course: Economic History and Development, 9 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: Nowadays oil is still the world's most important single source of energy. The world's industry is influenced by the cost of energy which, in turn, is influenced by the price of crude oil, taxation and other factors. If the cost of energy goes up, then prices of goods and services will increase, subsequently it will cause lower availability of products, higher transportation's costs and in turn lower economic growth. The latter will influence negatively the efficiency and productivity of the whole world's industry. This means that if oil prices go too high or too low there will be unlikely consequences for both oil producers and oil consumers. This paper analyzes the oil crisis of 1970ies. The first section concerns the history of the October War (6 - 23 October 1973) that led to the oil embargo, one of the most dramatic events for the world economy. The embargo lasted six months, beginning on 17 October 1973 and ending on 18 March 1974. The second section deals with the impact of the energy crisis on different countries. It caused terrible consequences for the economies of all industrialized countries such as recession, inflation, unemployment, lost economic growth and stagflation. But the essential question is whether the energy crisis was a real shortage or mainly a matter of politics.