On The Persistence Of The China Shock
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On The Persistence Of The China Shock
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Author : David Autor
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
On The Persistence Of The China Shock written by David Autor and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with categories.
Abstract We evaluate the duration of the China trade shock and its impact on a wide range of outcomes over the period 2000 to 2019. The shock plateaued in 2010, enabling analysis of its effects for nearly a decade past its culmination. Adverse impacts of import competition on manufacturing employment, overall employment-population ratios, and income per capita in more trade-exposed U.S. commuting zones are present out to 2019. Over the full study period, greater import competition implies a reduction in the manufacturing employment-population ratio of 1.54 percentage points, which is 55% of the observed change in the value, and the absorption of 86% of this net job loss via a corresponding decrease in the overall employment rate. Reductions in population headcounts, which indicate net out-migration, register only for foreign-born workers and the native-born 25-39 years old, implying that exit from work is a primary means of adjustment to trade-induced contractions in labor demand. More negatively affected regions see modest increases in the uptake of government transfers, but these transfers primarily take the form of Social Security and Medicare benefits. Adverse outcomes are more acute in regions that initially had fewer college-educated workers and were more industrially specialized. Impacts are qualitatively--but not quantitatively--similar to those caused by the decline of employment in coal production since the 1980s, indicating that the China trade shock holds lessons for other episodes of localized job loss. Import competition from China induced changes in income per capita across local labor markets that are much larger than the spatial heterogeneity of income effects predicted by standard quantitative trade models. Even using higher-end estimates of the consumer benefits of rising trade with China, a substantial fraction of commuting zones appears to have suffered absolute declines in average real incomes.
On The Persistence Of The China Shock
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Author : David H. Autor
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
On The Persistence Of The China Shock written by David H. Autor and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with China categories.
Abstract We evaluate the duration of the China trade shock and its impact on a wide range of outcomes over the period 2000 to 2019. The shock plateaued in 2010, enabling analysis of its effects for nearly a decade past its culmination. Adverse impacts of import competition on manufacturing employment, overall employment-population ratios, and income per capita in more trade-exposed U.S. commuting zones are present out to 2019. Over the full study period, greater import competition implies a reduction in the manufacturing employment-population ratio of 1.54 percentage points, which is 55% of the observed change in the value, and the absorption of 86% of this net job loss via a corresponding decrease in the overall employment rate. Reductions in population headcounts, which indicate net out-migration, register only for foreign-born workers and the native-born 25-39 years old, implying that exit from work is a primary means of adjustment to trade-induced contractions in labor demand. More negatively affected regions see modest increases in the uptake of government transfers, but these transfers primarily take the form of Social Security and Medicare benefits. Adverse outcomes are more acute in regions that initially had fewer college-educated workers and were more industrially specialized. Impacts are qualitatively--but not quantitatively--similar to those caused by the decline of employment in coal production since the 1980s, indicating that the China trade shock holds lessons for other episodes of localized job loss. Import competition from China induced changes in income per capita across local labor markets that are much larger than the spatial heterogeneity of income effects predicted by standard quantitative trade models. Even using higher-end estimates of the consumer benefits of rising trade with China, a substantial fraction of commuting zones appears to have suffered absolute declines in average real incomes.
Global Trade National News Frames And State Public Opinion
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Author : Josephine Lukito
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Global Trade National News Frames And State Public Opinion written by Josephine Lukito and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
Though scholars have often recognized the importance of news media in explaining foreign trade policy and globalization, few studies have empirically tested the relationship between the economic impacts of trade, news media, and public opinion. One key factor potentially mediating their relationship is geography: how increasing international trade influences a country may vary depending on local economies. At the same time, local news organizations (and audiences) have shifted their focus toward national news, which may also mean that people are not consuming local information about trade consequences. Using the U.S.-China trade shock as a case, I explore how national and state-level news media framing of U.S.-China trade and the manufacturing job market relate to U.S. citizens' perceptions of the local job market and U.S. President. The China shock refers to the economic impact of increasing Chinese export on the domestic economy, with a specific focus on how exports harmed domestic manufacturing employment. To analyze the relationship between the China shock, news coverage of U.S.-China trade, and public opinion, I begin with a linguistically informed framing analysis of news articles about U.S.-China trade in national print media, national television, and state-level newspapers. The three news frames-pro-trade, anti-trade, and anti-China frames-are identified using lexico-syntactic, medium-specific, manually validated dictionaries. I then perform time series analysis to illustrate how the relationship between the China shock, news coverage, and public opinion vary by geographic region. Results from my analysis highlight two opposing trends. First: the persistence of the China shock from 2008 to 2018 vary greatly, even in states that rely on manufacturing. However, news coverage about U.S.-China trade in in both local and national outlets focused on national economic trends. As a result, people's perception of both the local economy and national politics were informed by a misapplication of national information to the state-level context.
China Shock
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Author : Michael Anthony
language : en
Publisher: CreateSpace
Release Date : 2015-11-15
China Shock written by Michael Anthony and has been published by CreateSpace this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-15 with categories.
China is on the way to becoming a global superpower, and the Chinese are bulldozing their way all over our planet. It's high time that the rest of the world knew more about this colossus. In this book, you'll discover: How the Chinese are not just different but also very peculiar in so many aspects like beliefs and personality. How China has been undergoing a major internal transformation, including a sex revolution. How the Communist Party of China maintains total control of the country. How China has carried out the biggest heist of Western intellectual property, and crippled the US economy. How China's leaders are using The Art of War to defeat America, and conquer the world. The book is very informative, full of vivid illustrations, and the result of years of research by an author who lived in China, speaks Chinese, and is very familiar with the intricacies of modern China.
Brookings Papers On Economic Activity Fall 2021
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Author : Janice Eberly
language : en
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Release Date : 2022-06-07
Brookings Papers On Economic Activity Fall 2021 written by Janice Eberly and has been published by Brookings Institution Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-06-07 with Political Science categories.
The Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) is a semi-annual academic conference and journal that pairs rigorous research with real-time policy analysis to address the most urgent economic challenges of the day. Working drafts of the papers are presented at the conference typically held twice each year. The final papers and discussant remarks from each conference are subsequently published in the journal several months later. POPP, VONA, MARIN and CHEN on The Employment Impact of a Green Fiscal Push: Evidence from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act BUCKMAN, CHOI, DALY and SEITELMAN on The Economic Gains from Equity CHERRY, JIANG, MATVOS, PISKORSKI and SERU on Government and Private Household Debt Relief during COVID-19 RENNERT, PREST, PIZER, NEWELL, ANTHOFF, KINGDON, RENNELS, COOKE, RAFTERY, ŠEVČÍKOVÁ and ERRICKSON on The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates REIS on Losing the Inflation Anchor AUTOR, DORN and HANSON on On the Persistence of the China Shock
Did U S Politicians Expect The China Shock
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Author : Matilde Bombardini
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Did U S Politicians Expect The China Shock written by Matilde Bombardini and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
In the two decades straddling China's WTO accession, the China Shock, i.e. the rapid trade integration of China in the early 2000's, has had a profound economic impact across U.S. regions. It is now both an internationally litigated issue and the casus belli for a global trade war. Were its consequences unexpected? Did U.S. politicians have imperfect information about the extent of China Shock's repercussions in their district at the time when they voted on China's Normal Trade Relations status? Or did they have accurate expectations, yet placed a relatively low weight on the subconstituencies that ended up being adversely affected? Information sets, expectations, and preferences of politicians are fundamental, but unobserved determinants of their policy choices. We apply a moment inequality approach designed to deliver unbiased estimates under weak informational assumptions on the information sets of members of Congress. This methodology offers a robust way to test hypotheses about the expectations of politicians at the time of their vote. Employing repeated roll call votes in the U.S. House of Representatives on China's Normal Trade Relations status, we formally test what information politicians had at the time of their decision and consistently estimate the weights that constituent interests, ideology, and other factors had in congressional votes. We show how assuming perfect foresight of the shocks biases the role of constituent interests and how standard proxies to modeling politician's expectations bias the estimation. We cannot reject that politicians could predict the initial China Shock in the early 1990's, but not around 2000, when China started entering new sectors, and find a moderate role of constituent interests, compared to ideology. Overall, U.S. legislators appear to have had accurate information on the China Shock, but did not place substantial weight on its adverse consequences.
The Elgar Companion To The World Trade Organization
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Author : Julien Chaisse
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2023-12-11
The Elgar Companion To The World Trade Organization written by Julien Chaisse and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-12-11 with Political Science categories.
This comprehensive Companion provides an extensive guide to understanding the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its impact on the global economy. Addressing the challenges facing the WTO amidst a rapidly evolving landscape, the book delves into the diverse trade policies of countries and regions, providing rare insights into their impact on the global trade governance frameworks.
Accidental Conflict
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Author : Stephen Roach
language : en
Publisher: Yale University Press
Release Date : 2022-11-08
Accidental Conflict written by Stephen Roach and has been published by Yale University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-11-08 with Political Science categories.
The misguided forces driving conflict escalation between America and China, and the path to a new relationship “A timely, fluid, readable assessment of a testy and rapidly changing global relationship.”—Kirkus Reviews (starred review) In the short span of four years, America and China have entered a trade war, a tech war, and a new Cold War. This conflict between the world’s two most powerful nations wouldn’t have happened were it not for an unnecessary clash of false narratives. America falsely blames its trade and technology threats on China yet overlooks its shaky saving foundation. China falsely blames its growth challenges on America’s alleged containment of market-based socialism, ignoring its failed economic rebalancing. In a hard-hitting analysis of both nations’ economies, politics, and policies, Stephen Roach argues that much of the rhetoric on both sides is dangerously misguided, amplified by information distortion, and more a reflection of each nation’s fears and vulnerabilities than a credible assessment of the risks they face. Outlining the disastrous toll of conflict escalation between China and America, Roach offers a new road map to restoring a mutually advantageous relationship.
Beyond Neoliberalism And Neo Illiberalism
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Author : Markus Gabriel
language : en
Publisher: transcript Verlag
Release Date : 2024-05-31
Beyond Neoliberalism And Neo Illiberalism written by Markus Gabriel and has been published by transcript Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-05-31 with Political Science categories.
In many countries, the political backlash against neoliberalism has mainly been a retreat from democracy, with a decline in independence of the judiciary and the monetary authorities, increased control of the media, and manipulation of elections for purposes of authoritarian control. The economic dynamics and the impact of neoliberalism, i.e. deregulation and liberalized markets, is just one cause of this authoritarian shift. The contributors to this volume examine the impact of neoliberal economic policies in relation to cultural and political factors and how these have promoted the recent authoritarian turn, as well as probing the economic policies and performance of the illiberal regimes.
Global Trade And Trade Governance During De Globalization
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Author : Anna Karhu
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2022-10-12
Global Trade And Trade Governance During De Globalization written by Anna Karhu and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-10-12 with Political Science categories.
This book takes a fresh and much needed perspective on the challenges of trade policy and explores possible futures for trade policy development. By taking the perspective of business studies, the book does not only focus on the economic, policy, or legislative perspectives, but views trade policy as a part of international business environment. The purpose of this book is to bring forward discussions on trade policy development and future development needs and offers a comprehensive read for international business researchers, practitioners and policymakers regarding the interconnections of trade policy and international business.
