Operational Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting
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Operational Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting
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Author : Andris Auliciems
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1998
Operational Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting written by Andris Auliciems and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with Australia categories.
Operational Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting
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Author : Andris Auliciems
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1998
Operational Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting written by Andris Auliciems and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with Rain and rainfall categories.
Sub Seasonal To Seasonal Prediction
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Author : Andrew Robertson
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2018-10-19
Sub Seasonal To Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-10-19 with Science categories.
The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Operational Weather Forecasting
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Author : Peter Michael Inness
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Operational Weather Forecasting written by Peter Michael Inness and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Science categories.
This book offers a complete primer, covering the end-to-end process of forecast production, and bringing together a description of all the relevant aspects together in a single volume; with plenty of explanation of some of the more complex issues and examples of current, state-of-the-art practices. Operational Weather Forecasting covers the whole process of forecast production, from understanding the nature of the forecasting problem, gathering the observational data with which to initialise and verify forecasts, designing and building a model (or models) to advance those initial conditions forwards in time and then interpreting the model output and putting it into a form which is relevant to customers of weather forecasts. Included is the generation of forecasts on the monthly-to-seasonal timescales, often excluded in text-books despite this type of forecasting having been undertaken for several years. This is a rapidly developing field, with a lot of variations in practices between different forecasting centres. Thus the authors have tried to be as generic as possible when describing aspects of numerical model design and formulation. Despite the reliance on NWP, the human forecaster still has a big part to play in producing weather forecasts and this is described, along with the issue of forecast verification – how forecast centres measure their own performance and improve upon it. Advanced undergraduates and postgraduate students will use this book to understand how the theory comes together in the day-to-day applications of weather forecast production. In addition, professional weather forecasting practitioners, professional users of weather forecasts and trainers will all find this new member of the RMetS Advancing Weather and Climate series a valuable tool. Provides an end-to-end description of the weather forecasting process Clearly structured and pitched at an accessible level, the book discusses the practical choices that operational forecasting centres have to make in terms of what numerical models they use and when they are run. Takes a very practical approach, using real life case-studies to contextualize information Discusses the latest advances in the area, including ensemble methods, monthly to seasonal range prediction and use of ‘nowcasting’ tools such as radar and satellite imagery Full colour throughout Written by a highly respected team of authors with experience in both academia and practice. Part of the RMetS book series ‘Advancing Weather and Climate’
Verification Of South African Weather Service Operational Seasonal Forecasts
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Author : Peggy Seanokeng Moatshe
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Verification Of South African Weather Service Operational Seasonal Forecasts written by Peggy Seanokeng Moatshe and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
The South African Weather Service rainfall seasonal forecasts are verified for the period of January-February-March to October-November-December 1998-2004. These forecasts are compiled using different models from different institutions. Probability seasonal forecasts can be evaluated using different skill measures, but in this study the Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS), Reliability Diagram (RD) and Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) are used. The RPSS is presented in the form of maps whereas the RD and ROC are analyses are presented in the form of graphs. The aim of the study is to present skill estimates of operational seasonal forecasts issued at South African Weather Service A limited number of forecasts show positive RPSS value throughout the validation period. From RD and ROC analysis, there is no skill in predicting the normal category as compared to below-normal and above-normal categories. Notwithstanding, the frequency diagrams show that the normal category was often given a large weight in the operational forecasts. The value of verifying seasonal forecast accuracy from the user's perspective is important. The understanding of seasonal forecast performance helps decision makers to determine when and how to respond to expected climate anomalies. Therefore the frequent update of the seasonal forecast verification is important in order to help Users make better decisions. Copyright.
Climate Prediction And Agriculture
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Author : Mannava VK Sivakumar
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2007-05-26
Climate Prediction And Agriculture written by Mannava VK Sivakumar and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-05-26 with Science categories.
Based on an International Workshop held in Geneva in 2005, this book reviews the advances made so far in seasonal climate predictions and their applications for management and decision-making in agriculture. It also identifies the challenges to be addressed in the next 5 to 10 years to further enhance operational applications of climate predictions in agriculture, especially in developing countries.
Next Generation Earth System Prediction
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Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2016-08-22
Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-08-22 with Science categories.
As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1998
Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with categories.
Assessment Of Intraseasonal To Interannual Climate Prediction And Predictability
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2010-10-08
Assessment Of Intraseasonal To Interannual Climate Prediction And Predictability written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10-08 with Science categories.
More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Modelling Seasonal Rainfall Characteristics Over South Africa
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Author : Steven Phakula
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Modelling Seasonal Rainfall Characteristics Over South Africa written by Steven Phakula and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with Air categories.
Aspects of forecast skill in predicting seasonal characteristics using global climate models (GCMs) are assessed over South Africa. The GCMs output is configured to predict number of rainfall days at South African Weather Service stations exceeding pre-defined threshold values for the austral summer seasons and to predict the rainfall totals of the onset months of the rainy seasons for eight homogeneous rainfall regions of South Africa. Using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) as statistical downscaling technique through model output statistics, the forecast skill levels of coupled ocean–atmosphere and uncoupled atmospheric models are determined through retro-actively generated hindcasts. Both downscaled models have skill in predicting low and high number of rainfall days exceeding pre-defined thresholds for the austral summer seasons as well as rainfall totals of onset months. In addition to the forecast verification results, CCA pattern is performed to determine the dominating atmospheric circulation systems predicted to be controlling rainfall variations for the seasons and months of interest. CCA patterns for both the GCMs indicate that usually when there are anomalously negative (positive) predicted 850 hPa geopotential heights over South Africa, there are anomalously wet (dry) conditions over most parts of South Africa. The work has paved the way for the operational production of seasonal rainfall characteristics over South Africa in real time.