Predicting Criminal Justice Outcomes
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Predicting Criminal Justice Outcomes
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1999
Predicting Criminal Justice Outcomes written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with categories.
Predicting Criminal Justice Outcomes
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Author : Stephen P. Klein
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1991
Predicting Criminal Justice Outcomes written by Stephen P. Klein and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991 with Law categories.
This report describes the authors' investigation of 2,263 male defendants charged with armed robbery or residential burglary in 14 urban areas across the nation. They sought to determine if certain case outcomes varied from one jurisdiction to another. They also attempted to determine if these outcomes were linked in any way with various case and defendant characteristics. The study considered all cases pending against a defendant, but the findings indicate that knowing whether or not a defendant faced overlapping charges contributed little to the prediction of case outcomes. The fate of a defendant was generally invariant across jurisdictions once case and defendant characteristics were held constant. The principal findings are twofold: (1) once a defendant is charged with an armed robbery or a residential burglary, there is a high probability that he will be convicted and incarcerated; and (2) that probability is generally unaffected by the urban county in which his case is adjudicated.
Prediction In Criminology
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Author : David P. Farrington
language : en
Publisher: State University of New York Press
Release Date : 1985-09-01
Prediction In Criminology written by David P. Farrington and has been published by State University of New York Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1985-09-01 with Social Science categories.
Prediction in Criminology is the first book to bring together a wide variety of articles on prediction research in criminology. It stresses not only substantive findings but also the methodology of prediction research, and demonstrates how similar issues arise in many applications: problems of research design, the choice of predictor and criterion variables, methods of selecting and combining variables into a prediction instrument, measures of predictive efficiency, and external validity or generalizability. The collection includes research from the United States, Canada, and Great Britain and will be of interest to an international audience of policy makers, practitioners, academics, and researchers.
Predicting Recidivism Using Survival Models
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Author : Peter Schmidt
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 1988-03-14
Predicting Recidivism Using Survival Models written by Peter Schmidt and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988-03-14 with Medical categories.
This study investigated the usefulness of various statistical models, based on survival time, for the prediction of the length of time that an offender released from prison will remain free. The study used data for two North Carolina cohorts : all individuals released between July 1977 and June 1978 and those released between July 1979 and June 1980. Recidivism was determined by a search of State correctional records in April 1984, providing follow-up times ranging from 46 to 81 months. The analysis compared parametric and nonparametric statistical models, considered the importance of including individual characteristics as explanatory variables in such models, and examined the usefulness of 'split' models, in which not every individual would eventually return to prison. The dependent variable in the analysis was the time until return to prison in North Carolina. Results showed the usefulness of parametric statistical models. Purely nonparametric models were of little use, however. Efforts to show the usefulness of individual characteristics as explanatory variables showed mixed results. Including a splitting parameter into a model greatly improved the ability to predict the timing of recidivism. (Source : NCJRS).
Predicting Failure To Appear
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Author : Stephen James Clipper
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Predicting Failure To Appear written by Stephen James Clipper and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with Bail categories.
The criminal justice system has a long history of attempting to predict outcomes for several criminal justice decision points. Failure to appear in court is one such area of research. The current study compares the accuracy of deductive and inductive statistical models in predicting failure to appear in court. To evaluate this question, logistic regression was compared to random forests, support vector machines, and naïve Bayes models. The efficacy of a stacked ensemble model, a model developed from the predicted probabilities of the aforementioned individual models, was compared as well. Model accuracy assessment was determined using an identical holdout set of cases across all models. The results indicate that the random forest model outperforms logistic regression at both overall accuracy and a one percent false positive threshold. This adds to a growing body of literature that evaluates the efficacy of inductive models of prediction in criminal justice applications. Future research should continue to evaluate the efficacy of inductive and deductive statistical models in various criminal justice applications. Indeed, despite the performance of the random forest model presented here, many statistical models should be considered whenever any new prediction model is developed. Each model is developed in a unique way, with specific strengths and weaknesses, and only when several are considered is it possible to identify the best for a specific application. Since even modest increases in predictive accuracy can improve the efficiency and outcome of the criminal justice system, the search for the accurate prediction should continue.
Criminal Justice Forecasts Of Risk
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Author : Richard Berk
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-04-06
Criminal Justice Forecasts Of Risk written by Richard Berk and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-04-06 with Computers categories.
Machine learning and nonparametric function estimation procedures can be effectively used in forecasting. One important and current application is used to make forecasts of “future dangerousness" to inform criminal justice decision. Examples include the decision to release an individual on parole, determination of the parole conditions, bail recommendations, and sentencing. Since the 1920s, "risk assessments" of various kinds have been used in parole hearings, but the current availability of large administrative data bases, inexpensive computing power, and developments in statistics and computer science have increased their accuracy and applicability. In this book, these developments are considered with particular emphasis on the statistical and computer science tools, under the rubric of supervised learning, that can dramatically improve these kinds of forecasts in criminal justice settings. The intended audience is researchers in the social sciences and data analysts in criminal justice agencies.
Decision Making In The Criminal Justice System
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Author : Don M. Gottfredson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1975
Decision Making In The Criminal Justice System written by Don M. Gottfredson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1975 with Criminal justice, Administration of categories.
What Works
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Author : Sheila Anne French
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
What Works written by Sheila Anne French and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with Criminal behavior, Prediction of categories.
The current dissertation used meta-analytic techniques to summarize the predictive validities for general recidivism using risk assessment studies generated between 2000 and 2017. In total, 263 studies contributed 746 effect sizes involving over one million justice-involved individuals. Given this scale, the results provide comprehensive and relevant information related for the choice and implementation of risk assessment tools/practices to appraise general recidivism across criminal justice contexts. Findings supported the use of theoretically-based, second, third, and fourth generation risk tools as these had predictive validity for appraisal of general recidivism. Tools that were entirely static or that combined static with dynamic factors had larger predictive validities than those containing only dynamic items. For assessment administration method, appraisals conducted using structured professional judgment processes provided comparable predictive validity to actuarial tools. Results also provided continued support for multi-sourced methods of gathering appraisal information, though these predictive validities were at par with single-sourced methods (i.e., file review and client self-report questionnaires). For sample diversity, predictive validities were comparable for mixed ethnicity, Indigenous and Caucasian samples, whereas validities were not as accurate for Black and Hispanic samples. There were no differences in predictive validity categories for client age, type of correctional client (general, forensic-psychiatric, sexual, and violent), or for male and female samples. For outcomes, there was no difference in predictive validity by type of officially-recorded general recidivism and very minimal support for self-supported general recidivism. Stronger predictive validities resulted from follow-up periods exceeding two years duration. The results contained herein will provide policy decision makers and assessors with information to guide choices related to risk assessment tools relevant to their individual target populations and contexts.
Criminal Futures
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Author : Simon Egbert
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2020-12-14
Criminal Futures written by Simon Egbert and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-14 with Political Science categories.
This book explores how predictive policing transforms police work. Police departments around the world have started to use data-driven applications to produce crime forecasts and intervene into the future through targeted prevention measures. Based on three years of field research in Germany and Switzerland, this book provides a theoretically sophisticated and empirically detailed account of how the police produce and act upon criminal futures as part of their everyday work practices. The authors argue that predictive policing must not be analyzed as an isolated technological artifact, but as part of a larger sociotechnical system that is embedded in organizational structures and occupational cultures. The book highlights how, for crime prediction software to come to matter and play a role in more efficient and targeted police work, several translation processes are needed to align human and nonhuman actors across different divisions of police work. Police work is a key function for the production and maintenance of public order, but it can also discriminate, exclude, and violate civil liberties and human rights. When criminal futures come into being in the form of algorithmically produced risk estimates, this can have wide-ranging consequences. Building on empirical findings, the book presents a number of practical recommendations for the prudent use of algorithmic analysis tools in police work that will speak to the protection of civil liberties and human rights as much as they will speak to the professional needs of police organizations. An accessible and compelling read, this book will appeal to students and scholars of criminology, sociology, and cultural studies as well as to police practitioners and civil liberties advocates, in addition to all those who are interested in how to implement reasonable forms of data-driven policing.
Criminal Recidivism
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Author : Georgia Zara
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2015-07-24
Criminal Recidivism written by Georgia Zara and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-07-24 with Social Science categories.
Criminal Recidivism intends to fill a gap in the criminological psychology literature by examining the processes underlying persistent criminal careers. This book aims to investigate criminal recidivism, and why, how and for how long an individual continues to commit crimes, whilst also reviewing knowledge about risk assessment and the role of psychopathy (including neurocriminological factors) in encouraging recidivism. It also focuses on the recidivism of sex offenders and on what works in reducing reoffending. At an empirical level, this book attempts to explain criminal persistence and recidivism using longitudinal data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD). At a psycho-criminological level it joins together quantitative and qualitative analyses, making its content a practical guide to explain, predict, and intervene to reduce the risk of criminal recidivism. The authors present quantitative analyses of criminal careers, as well as qualitative life histories of chronic offenders, in order to bring home the reality and consequences of a life of crime. The book is aimed not only at advanced students and academics in psychology, criminology, probation studies, social sciences, psychiatry, sociology, political science, and penology, but also at decision makers, policy officials, and practitioners within the realm of crime intervention and prevention, and also at forensic experts, judges and lawyers.
