Predicting Exchange Rates In Asia
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Predicting Exchange Rates In Asia
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Author : Frederik Kunze
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Predicting Exchange Rates In Asia written by Frederik Kunze and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
This paper evaluates aggregated survey forecasts with forecast horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months for the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan, the Hong Kong dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Singapore dollar vis-à-vis the US dollar using common forecast accuracy measures. Additionally, the rationality of the exchange rate predictions are assessed utilizing tests for unbiasedness and efficiency. All investigated forecasts are irrational in the sense that the predictions are biased. However, these results are inconsistent with an alternative measure of rationality based on methods of applied time series analysis. Investigating the order of integration of the time series and using cointegration analysis, empirical evidence supports the conclusion that the majority of forecasts are rational. Regarding forerunning properties of the predictions, the results are less convincing, with shorter term forecasts for the tightly managed USD/CNY FX regime being one exception. As one important evaluation result, it can be concluded, that the currency regime matters for the quality of exchange rate forecasts.
Forecasting The Exchange Rate Of Currencies A Panel Data Approach
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Author : Sajjad Hossine
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2017-01-16
Forecasting The Exchange Rate Of Currencies A Panel Data Approach written by Sajjad Hossine and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-16 with Business & Economics categories.
Seminar paper from the year 2015 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: A, , course: International Financial Management, language: English, abstract: The exchange rate on a daily basis is an indispensable factor in the foreign exchange market as well as in international trade. Many traders make a profit based on the pip in the foreign exchange market. Moreover, inflation and deflation of a currency against another currency is the root of making a profit in the foreign exchange market. Even in the international trade many individual traders and multi-national corporations always carefully observes the fluctuation of the exchange rate in order to determine the exchange rate efficiently and accurately. Because the more accurate the forecasted exchange rate is, the higher the chance becomes to make a profit only by investing a little amount of money in the foreign exchange market. The exchange rate has also significant impact on the export, import, foreign direct investment etc. This paper pursues the goal to explain how an individual or an organization can formulate future exchange rate of any currency in an efficient and time effective way. To meet this demand, this paper utilizes the help of panel data and a regression model. As a sample, this paper considers USD/BDT for a forecast. It must be noted that, with different panel data of different currencies, the method will remain same if anyone wants to forecast exchange rates of different currencies.
Foreign Exchange Rates
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Author : Arif Orçun Söylemez
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2021-02-07
Foreign Exchange Rates written by Arif Orçun Söylemez and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Predicting foreign exchange rates has presented a long-standing challenge for economists. However, the recent advances in computational techniques, statistical methods, newer datasets on emerging market currencies, etc., offer some hope. While we are still unable to beat a driftless random walk model, there has been serious progress in the field. This book provides an in-depth assessment of the use of novel statistical approaches and machine learning tools in predicting foreign exchange rate movement. First, it offers a historical account of how exchange rate regimes have evolved over time, which is critical to understanding turning points in a historical time series. It then presents an overview of the previous attempts at modeling exchange rates, and how different methods fared during this process. At the core sections of the book, the author examines the time series characteristics of exchange rates and how contemporary statistics and machine learning can be useful in improving predictive power, compared to previous methods used. Exchange rate determination is an active research area, and this book will appeal to graduate-level students of international economics, international finance, open economy macroeconomics, and management. The book is written in a clear, engaging, and straightforward way, and will greatly improve access to this much-needed knowledge in the field.
An Empirical Study Of Exchange Rate In Selected Asian Countries Predicted From Interest Rate And Inflation Using Regression Models
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Author : Daniel Wiharjo
language : en
Publisher: Daniel wiharjo
Release Date :
An Empirical Study Of Exchange Rate In Selected Asian Countries Predicted From Interest Rate And Inflation Using Regression Models written by Daniel Wiharjo and has been published by Daniel wiharjo this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with Business & Economics categories.
Interpreting The Asian Currency Crisis
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Author : Hoon Kim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2002
Interpreting The Asian Currency Crisis written by Hoon Kim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with Asia categories.
Interpreting The Asian Currency Crisis
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Author : Hun Kim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2002
Interpreting The Asian Currency Crisis written by Hun Kim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with Asia categories.
Predicting Currency Fluctuations And Crises
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Author : Daniel Kaufmann
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 1999
Predicting Currency Fluctuations And Crises written by Daniel Kaufmann and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Balance Of Payments Crises categories.
"Markets have had limited success predicting crises and might do better by drawing on private information available to resident enterprise managers, who seem to know better than markets about future movements in exchange rates"--Cover.
Exchange Rate Monetary And Financial Issues And Policies In Asia
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Author : Ramkishen S. Rajan
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2009
Exchange Rate Monetary And Financial Issues And Policies In Asia written by Ramkishen S. Rajan and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Business & Economics categories.
A decade has passed since the Asian crisis of 1997OCo1998 which decimated many of the regional economies. While the crisis itself led to severe economic and political consequences, its primary cause was an inappropriate mix of policies, as regional economies attempted to simultaneously maintain fairly rigid exchange rates (soft US dollar pegs) and monetary policy autonomy in the presence of large-scale capital outflows. The chapters in this volume focus on selected exchange rate, monetary and financial issues and policies that are of contemporary relevance and importance to Asia, including choice of exchange rate regimes, causes and consequences of reserve accumulation, international capital flows, macroeconomic synchronization, and regional monetary and financial cooperation.
Exchange Rate Volatility In Emerging Economies
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Author : Abdulkader M. ALJANDALI
language : en
Publisher: Transnational Press London
Release Date : 2018-04-13
Exchange Rate Volatility In Emerging Economies written by Abdulkader M. ALJANDALI and has been published by Transnational Press London this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-04-13 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is a contribution to the knowledge concerning the volatility and forecasting of exchange rates in the emerging markets. It focuses on the exchange rates of the leading trading blocs in that part of the world and examines exchange rates of selected emerging countries across continents in order to explain local and regional variations in exchange rates and the determinants of fluctuations in selected countries in Africa, Asia, Central and Latin America. Exchange rates of countries from the four different regions are investigated separately, followed by analysis within and across regions to identify common patterns of exchange rates fluctuations. Monthly forecasts are generated for a period of 24 months to test the performance of the times series, cointegration and combination techniques used in this book. The results show that exchange rates of countries in the same region behave similarly following a shock to the system. Additionally, exchange rates of countries at the same stage of development albeit in different geographical location (Central America, Southern Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia) share some similarities. In this book, I argue that all exchange rates examined have been volatile. Contents PrefaceChapter I. IntroductionChapter II. Foreign Exchange Forecasting using Macroeconomic VariablesChapter III. Empirical Methods and ApplicationsChapter IV. Times Series ForecastingChapter V. ARDL Cointegration ForecastingChapter VI Combination Forecasting of Exchange RatesChapter VII Conclusions, Summary and Recommendations for Policy MakersAppendix 1 Exchange rate plots over time
Exchange Rate Determination
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Author : Michael Rosenberg
language : en
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
Release Date : 2003-05-19
Exchange Rate Determination written by Michael Rosenberg and has been published by McGraw Hill Professional this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-05-19 with Business & Economics categories.
Models and Strategies for Exchange Rate ForecastingMichael R. RosenbergGetting an accurate exchange rate is critical for any company doing business in today's global economy. Exchange Rate Determination--written by the number one-ranked foreign exchange team in the world--examines the methods used to accurately and profitably forecast foreign exchange rates. This hands-on guidebook uses extensive charts and tables to examine currency option markets, productivity trends and exchange rates; technical analysis methods to improve currency forecasting accuracy; and more.