Predictive Modeling Of Avian Influenza In Wild Birds
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Predictive Modeling Of Avian Influenza In Wild Birds
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Author : Keiko A. Herrick
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Predictive Modeling Of Avian Influenza In Wild Birds written by Keiko A. Herrick and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Avian influenza categories.
Over the past 20 years, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), specifically Eurasian H5N1 subtypes, caused economic losses to the poultry industry and sparked fears of a human influenza pandemic. Avian influenza virus (AIV) is widespread in wild bird populations in the low-pathogenicity form (LPAI), and wild birds are thought to be the reservoir for AIV. To date, however, nearly all predictive models of AIV focus on domestic poultry and HPAI H5N1 at a small country or regional scale. Clearly, there is a need and an opportunity to explore AIV in wild birds using data-mining and machine-learning techniques. I developed predictive models using the Random Forests algorithm to describe the ecological niche of avian influenza in wild birds. In "Chapter 2 - Predictive risk modeling of avian influenza around the Pacific Rim", I demonstrated that it was possible to separate an AIV-positivity signal from general surveillance effort. Cold winters, high temperature seasonality, and a long distance from coast were important predictors. In "Chapter 3 - A global model of avian influenza prediction in wild birds: the importance of northern regions", northern regions remained areas of high predicted occurrence even when using a global dataset of AIV. In surveillance data, the percentage of AIV-positive samples is typically very low, which can hamper machine-learning. For "Chapter 4 - Modeling avian influenza with Random Forests: under-sampling and model selection for unbalanced prevalence in surveillance data" I wrote custom code in R statistical programming language to evaluate a balancing algorithm, a model selection algorithm, and an under-sampling method for their effects on model accuracy. Repeated random sub-sampling was found to be the most reliable way to improved unbalanced datasets. In these models cold regions consistently bore the highest relative predicted occurrence scores for AIV-positivity and describe a niche for LPAI that is distinct from the niche for HPAI in domestic poultry. These studies represent a novel, initial attempt at constructing models for LPAI in wild birds and demonstrated high predictive power.
Wild Birds And Avian Influenza
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Author : Darrell Whitworth
language : en
Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org.
Release Date : 2007
Wild Birds And Avian Influenza written by Darrell Whitworth and has been published by Food & Agriculture Org. this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Medical categories.
The highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 strain has spread from domestic poultry to a large number of species of free-ranging wild birds, including non-migratory birds and migratory birds that can travel thousands of kilometers each year. The regular contact and interaction between poultry and wild birds has increased the urgency of understanding wild bird diseases and the transmission mechanisms that exist between the poultry and wild bird sectors, with a particular emphasis on avian influenza. Monitoring techniques, surveillance, habitat use and migration patterns are all important aspects of wildlife and disease ecology that need to be better understood to gain insights into disease transmission between these sectors. This manual contains chapters on the basic ecology of avian influenza and wild birds, capture and marking techniques (ringing, color marking and satellite telemetry), disease sampling procedures, and field survey and monitoring procedures.--Publisher's description.
Modeling Avian Influenza H5n1
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Author : Kelly Clarkson
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2013-04-18
Modeling Avian Influenza H5n1 written by Kelly Clarkson and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-18 with Medical categories.
Seminar paper from the year 2012 in the subject Medicine - Pathology, grade: A, University of Michigan, language: English, abstract: In the recent past, bird flu has claimed many lives. These are mainly of those, belonging to humans and animals of whose food chain, birds and fowls tend to be a part. This, has in turn affected other animals, as well as upset the entire food chain. The virus has an RNA based protein (Tiensin, Thanawat, 2011), which is the cause of the problem. There are many subtypes of the virus, however only four of them have been found to be the real cause of the problems. These strains are named as the H5N1, H7N3, H7N7 and H9N2. This virus has genes, which are more adaptive towards aerial beings such as birds. However, this does not mean that the virus cannot pass on the pathogen to other beings but are relieve less likely to result in death. The World Health Organization mentions in its report that, there have been just two deaths due to Avian Flu in the countries of Egypt and Indonesia in a time span of 5th November 2012 and 17th November, 2012(World Health Organization, 2012). Both the deaths have been attributed to exposure to chicken or ducks in the backyard or in the neighborhood. In this report, we attempt to find an appropriate model so that the problem can be nipped in the bud. The report, will seek to determine the implementation and the results of various implementations in order to perfect the model. Apart from the cases reported, the avian flu has seriously hit the poultry market, with government taking no chances and introducing bans on the import and export of chicken and fowl as well as products made out of them. All the infected birds have been tested in order to eliminate chances of wrong deaths. The affected ones are out to death including their young ones and the unhatched eggs. In the fig 1.1, the table mentions the cumulative number of cases as well as deaths attributed to Avian Influenza. The table mentions data collected since 2003, the year when the flu virus first made an appearance till 2012, in order to show case the necessity for the generation of the perfect model.
Wild Birds And Emerging Diseases
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Author : Diann Prosser
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Wild Birds And Emerging Diseases written by Diann Prosser and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.
Wild Bird Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Surveillance
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Author : Karrie Rose
language : en
Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org.
Release Date : 2006
Wild Bird Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Surveillance written by Karrie Rose and has been published by Food & Agriculture Org. this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Business & Economics categories.
"The purpose of this document is to provide brief guidelines on the sampling methods to use when conducting wildlife surveillance, or a morbidity / mortality investigation. Topics covered include animal handling, proper methods for collecting and transporting diagnostic samples related to investigation of avian diseases such as avian influenza, West Nile virus, and Newcastle disease."--Introd.
Modeling The Transmission And Maintenance Of Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Among Wild Birds With Environmental Heterogeneity And Host Conditions
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Author : Rachel L. Jennings
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Modeling The Transmission And Maintenance Of Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Among Wild Birds With Environmental Heterogeneity And Host Conditions written by Rachel L. Jennings and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with Avian influenza categories.
Low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses naturally circulate among wild birds, especially those inhabiting aquatic environments. Because of frequent contact with domestic poultry through shared areas, wild birds are believed to be responsible for the geographical spread of avian influenza. Although LPAI viruses cause little to no disease in their natural avian hosts, subtypes H5 and H7 mutate into high pathogenic forms (HPAI) when in chickens. For nearly two decades, HPAI outbreaks, especially subtype H5N1, occur frequently and with ferocity across the globe. Given that the origins of HPAI lie with LPAI, we must increase our understanding of the mechanisms governing the spread and persistence of LPAI viruses in their natural reservoir. Here, we present four deterministic, compartmental models describing the indirect transmission and maintenance of LPAI viruses among wild birds, culminating in an age-structured model for a migratory species. For each model, we established positivity and boundedness of solutions as well as derived sufficient conditions for the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Numerical simulations allowed us to explore how varying environmental factors, such as temperature, and host conditions contribute to the endemicity of LPAI viruses. Supporting theoretical conjectures, we conclude that certain sub-populations and free-living virus surviving in the environment drive disease dynamics, but the extent of influence for both species differs between resident and migratory birds.
Avian Influenza Research Progress
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Author : Ernesto P. Allegra
language : en
Publisher: Nova Publishers
Release Date : 2008
Avian Influenza Research Progress written by Ernesto P. Allegra and has been published by Nova Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Medical categories.
Avian influenza, or 'bird flu', is a contagious disease of animals caused by viruses that normally infect only birds and, less commonly, pigs. Avian influenza viruses are highly species-specific, but have, on rare occasions, crossed the species barrier to infect humans. In domestic poultry, infection with avian influenza viruses causes two main forms of disease, distinguished by low and high extremes of virulence. The so-called 'low pathogenic' form commonly causes only mild symptoms (ruffled feathers, a drop in egg production) and may easily go undetected. The highly pathogenic form is far more dramatic. It spreads very rapidly through poultry flocks, causes disease affecting multiple internal organs, and has a mortality that can approach 100%, often within 48 hours.
Bird Flu
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Author : Maddula R. Reddy
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Bird Flu written by Maddula R. Reddy and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Avian influenza categories.
Asia, Africa and Europe have in the recent years witnessed outbreaks of Avian Influenza resulting in the deaths and culling of over 200 million poultry resulting in huge economic losses besides adversely affecting farmers, households, the poultry industry, tourism and trade relations countries and nations. Many countries in the South-East Asia region are on the flight paths of migrating birds, some of which could be carrying Avian Influenza virus. In view of the epidemiological situation, all countries in the region are vulnerable to the influenza pandemic. Threat of world influenza pandemic has never been imminent. To combat this grave threat, it is essential for countries to be well prepared. Experts predict it is only a matter of time before a bird flu strain will mutate and become transmissible between humans. Once that happens, a pandemic like the Spanish flu that resulted in over 50 million deaths, overwhelming hospital and medical services could be inevitable. This book includes a detailed glossary of terms and a comprehensive index to clarify all the technical and general concepts about this deadly virus. WHO guidelines are provided in detail. The prevention and preparedness of activities that facilitate the response and recovery during and after influenza pandemic are important aspects that are included in this book.
Avian Influenza
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Author : Salomon Haugan
language : en
Publisher: Nova Biomedical Books
Release Date : 2010
Avian Influenza written by Salomon Haugan and has been published by Nova Biomedical Books this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Avian influenza categories.
Avian influenza, sometimes avian flu, and commonly called bird flu, refers to "influenza caused by viruses adapted to birds". Of greatest concern is highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). These influenza viruses occur naturally among birds. Wild birds world-wide carry the viruses in their intestines, but usually do not get sick from them. However, avian influenza is very contagious among birds and can make some domesticated birds, including chickens, ducks, and turkeys, very ill. Infected birds shed influenza virus in their saliva, nasal secretions, and faeces. Susceptible birds become infected when they have contact with contaminated secretions or excretions or with surfaces that are contaminated with secretions or excretions from infected birds. The risk from avian influenza is generally low for most people, because the viruses do not usually infect humans. However, confirmed cases of human infection from several subtypes of avian influenza infection have been reported since 1997. The spread of avian influenza viruses from one ill person to another has been reported very rarely, and has been limited, inefficient and unsustained. This important book gathers the latest research from around the globe in this field.
Avian Influenza Bird Flu Today S Threat
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Author : Gowda R.N. Sreenivas Et.Al
language : en
Publisher: IBDC Publishers
Release Date : 2008
Avian Influenza Bird Flu Today S Threat written by Gowda R.N. Sreenivas Et.Al and has been published by IBDC Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Avian influenza categories.
An emerging threat in recent years none other than Avian Influenza also called as Bird flu or Avian Flu has attracted more attention of the scientists, academician, journalists, politicians, poultry farmers, and general public alike. facts of scientific information along with the myths spread with different explanations and illustrations.