Projecting Potential Output
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Projecting Potential Output
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Author : Sebastian Hauptmeier
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2009-03-20
Projecting Potential Output written by Sebastian Hauptmeier and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-03-20 with Business & Economics categories.
In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well as in economic policy debates, the historical background and the assumptions inherent to this concept are rarely made transparent, let alone critically questioned. Against this background this book sets out to determine the extent to which the concept of potential output rests on clearly defined theoretical foundations and how far prevailing empirical quantification methods really provide reliable insights into potential output growth of an economy. In addition, the authors examine alternative methods for a forward-looking assessment of potential output growth.
Projecting Potential Output
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Author : Sebastian Hauptmeier
language : en
Publisher: Physica
Release Date : 2009-08-29
Projecting Potential Output written by Sebastian Hauptmeier and has been published by Physica this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-08-29 with Business & Economics categories.
In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well as in economic policy debates, the historical background and the assumptions inherent to this concept are rarely made transparent, let alone critically questioned. Against this background this book sets out to determine the extent to which the concept of potential output rests on clearly defined theoretical foundations and how far prevailing empirical quantification methods really provide reliable insights into potential output growth of an economy. In addition, the authors examine alternative methods for a forward-looking assessment of potential output growth.
Estimating And Projecting Potential Output Using Cbo S Forecasting Growth Model
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Author : Robert Shackleton
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Estimating And Projecting Potential Output Using Cbo S Forecasting Growth Model written by Robert Shackleton and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
Estimating And Projecting Potential Output Using Structural Var Methodology
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Author : Alain de Serres
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Estimating And Projecting Potential Output Using Structural Var Methodology written by Alain de Serres and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with categories.
In this paper the authors show how potential output can be estimated and projected through an approach derived from the structural vector autoregression methodology. This approach is applied to the Mexican economy. To identify demand, supply and world oil shocks, the authors assume that demand shocks do not have a permanent effect on output and that the international price of oil is exogenous to the Mexican economy in the long term. They then calculate potential output by adding the world oil and supply components to the drift in output. They find that world oil shocks have been an important source of both actual and potential output fluctuations over a sample period extending from 1965 to 1994. However, they also find occurrences of important gaps between actual and potential output.
Revisions To Cbo S Projection Of Potential Output Since 2007
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Author : Robert Shackleton
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014-05-22
Revisions To Cbo S Projection Of Potential Output Since 2007 written by Robert Shackleton and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-05-22 with categories.
As part of its economic and budgetary projections, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates past and future potential output -- also called potential gross domestic product (GDP), and defined as the maximum sustainable amount of real (inflation-adjusted) output that the economy can produce. For various reasons, CBO's projections for potential gross domestic product (GDP) in a specific year can change over time. This report examines a change in CBO's projections of potential output for the year 2017, comparing the projection it published in January 2001 with the one it released in February 2014. From the earlier projection to the more recent one, CBO's projection for potential output in 2017 declined by 7.3 percent. Table and figures. This is a print on demand report.
Estimating And Projecting Potential Output Using Structural Var Methodology
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Author : Alain DeSerres
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1995
Estimating And Projecting Potential Output Using Structural Var Methodology written by Alain DeSerres and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995 with Econometric models categories.
An Update To The Budget And Economic Outlook
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
An Update To The Budget And Economic Outlook written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with Budget categories.
Estimating Potential Output Output Gaps And Structural Budget Balances
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Author : Claude Giorno
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1995
Estimating Potential Output Output Gaps And Structural Budget Balances written by Claude Giorno and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995 with Budget categories.
Estimating Poland S Potential Output
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Author : Mr.Natan P. Epstein
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-01-01
Estimating Poland S Potential Output written by Mr.Natan P. Epstein and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The paper develops a methodology based on the production-function approach to estimate potential output of the Polish economy. The paper concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment. The estimated unemployment gap is found to track well pressures on resource constraints. Moreover, the overall results show that, prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland's output and employment were both growing above potential. The production function is also used to derive medium-term projections of the output gap. According to our methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap.
The Oecd Potential Output Estimation Methodology
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Author : Thomas Chalaux
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
The Oecd Potential Output Estimation Methodology written by Thomas Chalaux and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with Economics categories.
Abstract: This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting point for long-run scenarios. Total-economy potential output is modelled using a constant-returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function with fixed factor shares. The three main inputs are labour, fixed capital excluding housing and labour efficiency, the latter obtained as a decomposition residual. The trend unemployment rate is estimated by Kalman filtering within a forward-looking Phillips curve. Other trend components are obtained by HP-filtering but labour efficiency and the labour force participation rate are cyclically adjusted before filtering to help alleviate the end-point problem associated with filters. This pre-filtering cyclical adjustment is especially helpful at cyclical turning points. It helps to lower the cyclicality of potential output as well as the extent of future revisions
