Public Debt And Household Inflation Expectations
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Public Debt And Household Inflation Expectations
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Author : Francesco Grigoli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-03-17
Public Debt And Household Inflation Expectations written by Francesco Grigoli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-17 with Debts, Public categories.
We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt on household inflation expectations. We find that people underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt. We also show that people associate high public debt with stagflationary effects and that the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt is considerably higher for women and low-income individuals.
Fiscal Policy And Households Inflation Expectations
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Author : Olivier Coibion
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Fiscal Policy And Households Inflation Expectations written by Olivier Coibion and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with categories.
Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates" monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary surpluses should lead households to anticipate this higher inflation. Are household inflation expectations sensitive to fiscal considerations in practice? We field a large randomized control trial on U.S. households to address this question by providing randomly chosen subsets of households with information treatments about the fiscal outlook and then observing how they revise their expectations about future inflation as well as taxes and government spending. We find that information about the current debt or deficit levels has little impact on inflation expectations but that news about future debt leads them to anticipate higher inflation, both in the short run and long run. News about rising debt also induces households to anticipate rising spending and a higher rate of interest for government debt.
Fiscal Policy And Households Inflation Expectations
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Author : Olivier Coibion
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
Fiscal Policy And Households Inflation Expectations written by Olivier Coibion and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with Fiscal policy categories.
Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy "dominates" monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary surpluses should lead households to anticipate this higher inflation. Are household inflation expectations sensitive to fiscal considerations in practice? We field a large randomized control trial on U.S. households to address this question by providing randomly chosen subsets of households with information treatments about the fiscal outlook and then observing how they revise their expectations about future inflation as well as taxes and government spending. We find that information about the current debt or deficit levels has little impact on inflation expectations but that news about future debt leads them to anticipate higher inflation, both in the short run and long run. News about rising debt also induces households to anticipate rising spending and a higher rate of interest for government debt.
Inflation Expectations
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Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2009-12-16
Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-12-16 with Business & Economics categories.
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Inflation Indexed Treasury Debt As An Aid To Monetary Policy
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Author : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Government Operations. Commerce, Consumer, and Monetary Affairs Subcommittee
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1992
Inflation Indexed Treasury Debt As An Aid To Monetary Policy written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Government Operations. Commerce, Consumer, and Monetary Affairs Subcommittee and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992 with Business & Economics categories.
Simple Monetary Rules Under Fiscal Dominance
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Author : Michael Kumhof
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2007-12
Simple Monetary Rules Under Fiscal Dominance written by Michael Kumhof and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper asks whether an aggressive monetary policy response to inflation is feasible in countries that suffer from fiscal dominance, as long as monetary policy also responds to fiscal variables. We find that if nominal interest rates are allowed to respond to government debt, even aggressive rules that satisfy the Taylor principle can produce unique equilibria. But following such rules results in extremely volatile inflation. This leads to very frequent violations of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates that make such rules infeasible. Even within the set of feasible rules the optimal response to inflation is highly negative, and more aggressive inflation fighting is inferior from a welfare point of view. The welfare gain from responding to fiscal variables is minimal compared to the gain from eliminating fiscal dominance.
Global Waves Of Debt
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Author : M. Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-03-03
Global Waves Of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Guidelines For Public Debt Management Amended
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-09-12
Guidelines For Public Debt Management Amended written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-09-12 with Business & Economics categories.
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The Budget And Economic Outlook
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
The Budget And Economic Outlook written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Budget categories.
The Liquidation Of Government Debt
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Author : Ms.Carmen Reinhart
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-01-21
The Liquidation Of Government Debt written by Ms.Carmen Reinhart and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-21 with Business & Economics categories.
High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.
